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Re: 10 for 10 oildog  05-01-2008, 5:15 PM | Post #2513718
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I'm going to sound like a vanguard diehard here, but you have to choose based on what people were saying 10 years ago, not what people are saying today.  If you asked people 10 years ago (1998) which funds would outperform the S&P 500 over the next 10 years, you would have had a completely different list.  Here's a representative conversation from 1998:

Link 

Some of the funds mentioned with the 10 year annualized returns are:

TORYX: 3.4% (underperformed S&P 500)

LMVTX: 4.1% (slightly outperformed S&P 500)  

BIGRX: 3.8% (underperformed S&P 500)

SAFGX: no longer exists, merged after nasty performance during tech bubble

JAWWX: 3.3% (underperformed S&P 500)

JAOSX: 13.7% (outperformed S&P 500)  

WOGSX: -0.5%  (underperformed S&P 500)

VWNFX: 5.4% (outperformed S&P 500) 

JASSX: closed due to bad performance in 2002

VQNPX: 3.9% (just about even with S&P 500) 

BSCFX: 9.1% (outperformed S&P 500)

 

That's only 4 out of 11 outperforming the S&P 500. 

 

If you were around at the time, you'll recall that JAWWX and WOGSX were basically the equivalents of CGM Focus at the time - a bunch of people endlessly touted these funds based on recent performance and argued there was no way you could lose with that fund.  That didn't work out too well. 

 
How about a now-widely acclaimed fund like DODGX?  There were exactly five posts about DODGX in 1998.  Three were about technical issues about fund policy.  Two were by "smurthy2," who said:

DODGX is performing very badly for the past one year. I have been just paying taxes on Dividends and capital gains without any returns. NAV is going down steeply. should i
dispose of that from my portfolio?

I invested in these funds [VPMCX & DODGX] about an year back and they are the worst performing funds in my portfolio. I am thinking of replacing them with a better performing ones in the same category. Any suggestions?

Do you think he hung around for the next 10 years?  I kind of doubt it.   

Best,
Oildog

Topics CGM Focus DODGX NAV target worst performing View Complete Thread
 
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