The futures market today is a complete disaster.  Down 500 plus points for the Dow. 

So not only do I agree with you, apparently the markets do as well. 

We are at BEST only through most of the first stage of this credit crisis.  The monolines are now dying.  Once they fall, we will see a shock to the system that will make subprime look like nothing.  Not looking good at all for now. 

Recently, I have been reading this book on trading.  It defines a bear market as having three distince phases:

1) Declines from a loss of excessive optimism.

2)  Declines from drops in earnings and corporate prospects.

3) Declines from sale of otherwise good assets by participants that are desparate for capital and solvency. 

Where do you think we are now?  We are at best through most of 1.  Not anywhere NEAR 3.  Yet.  When we see banks dying, and no one wants to put up a bid (except the ever generous government), then we are at the bottom in my opinion. 

I am not saying we are going to have a market crash.  But we are closer to having one right now, than we have been since 9/11.   

And for the buy and hold crowd, you can consider your US equity investments to be dead money for the rest of this decade...most likely...at best!  Glad I am short...