Recessions or slowdowns do happen from time to time.  Maybe we are coming up on one.  It would not be such a shock if we did have one in the next six months or so. 

But heck, the market and the economy have held up better than I would have expected.  So maybe we have awhile longer.  Maybe the housing market is going to turn up soon, and it will have no real impact on the economy in the meantime.  

Sigh...  Its just that I think the odds favor the opposite conclusion, that a contraction in real estate prices will have numerous effects on the economy, and we are really just starting down that road. 

That is why I found Paulson's comments sobering.  A guy like him, he has made a very good living at seeing markets as they are.  It must be pretty bad if he is making such a sobering speech.  It has a sound like someone laying the groundwork for a lot more bad news.  No stone-walling there at all.  So it was what was between the lines that caught my attention on this particular speech.