I think you are making assumptions that are not necessarily true.  Prices of commodities can still go up during a US recession.  It has happened before, you know.  Yes, commodities may even take a bath for awhile, but this will only be an entry point for future gains.  The only clear loser here would be bonds, with stocks likely sub-performing. 

How do I know this will happen?  I don't.  But things are happening now, that have not happened in recent years past.  I think conditions are different, and that will mean upward pressure on real asset prices, even while the economy continues to drift downward toward recession or slowdown. 

I guess we will see.

But while I anticipate economic slowdown, I hope it does not happen right now.  The housing market has enough stress already.  JudyKen makes a very good point, that if unemployment rose significantly, it would really torque the housing market, and cause a lot more defaults.  If we are quite lucky, the economy will drag on for another year, and let the housing market begin a more normal clearing process.  But if the economy rolls over, no one will be buying a house, and banks will get even tighter with the credit.