Oh!  Good post JudyKen! 

I agree with your 4.0% prediction.  Lower would mean the economy is flashing red big time.  As a general rule of Fed physics, the fed...once in motion...tends to stay in motion.  And I think Bernanke can extend this much accomodation without driving things completely out of control.  The dollar is not going to like it much, but I have never believed it was their real concern.  Two things drive their decision making in order of importance; inflation and full employment.  Yes, there is an inflation trade-off with a dropping dollar, but that is tomorrow's problem.  Today, I think they see declining growth as the problem. 

But I don't sit in the FOMC meetings (yet..lol), so I am really only guessing from what I read and what the Fed has done in the past...