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Re: And the Drama goes on and on... Alex...  09-15-2007, 3:38 PM | Post #2437822
2  

Well... I think they are going to lower rates...probably a quarter point.  The market is probably kidding itself about a half point drop.  BTW, I don't think anyone knows how much this will help with liquidity, but it could help steady the market.  And I do believe they are actually scared in DC right now, because of these worrisome liquidity concerns...and the economy to some extent.  I am thinking that Bernanke is hoping a couple of sybolic cuts will be enough to do the trick, and buy him time to get more data on the real economy.  These cuts are really more of a political and behavioral measure than a purely economic one. 

I would also point out that the "real" fed funds rate is already lower, indicating pretty listless open market activity by the Fed.  This is in effect a "cut".   

I have a partial explanation of why this liquidity problem is not getting more press.  Everyone in banking is currently holding their breath, and refusing to say they have any problem whatsoever.  There seems to be a collective hush, so as to avoid undesirable attention, and to avoid spooking the market collectively.  But there are some weaknesses out there, believe me. 

 

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