There are some very good books on this subject.  My favorite one is Beyond Oil: The View of Hubbert's Peak, by Kenneth Deffeyes.  Frankly, practically no one expects oil supplies to grow to meet demand during the next 20 years.  That would include Exxon, who did a rather disturbing presentation showing an unexpected bridge between insufficient supply and demand 20 years out...conservation. 

Oil may not go up to $200 a barrel right off, but as supplies remain tight, the bias in price is definitely up.  I wonder if the Al-Queda will ever figure out they can hurt the US by blowing up fields in the Americas.  Oh!  Maybe they did! 

The sad thing is that people in developed countries will only be mildly set back by this.  Developing countries will be severely hurt, just like the OPEC embargo days.