I will concede we are in at least a partial economic slowdown, and that what you call it is probably not that important (a point the President also made BTW). 

However, the technical definition of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.    By that criteria, we ain't there - not yet anyway.  For the last quarter we have on record, economic growth was still positive (an admittedly anemic 0.3% I believe).  That might be revised downward in the future.

Or it might not.  It could even be revised upward..

Now we have the release of one of the better leading economic indicators - the current quarter's data for the service sector (the majority of our economy) from the ISM - the non-partisan Institute for Supply Management.  It shows the non-manufacturing sectors bottomed in January, and are now in a solid recovery mode.

Interesting, eh?  (Full article here: http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDY3OTdkYTYwNDE1NTA2YzYzNzUzN2Q1OTUxYjMyMzQ= )

Personally, I do not know if we are in a recession or not.  Neither do all the folks claiming we are.  Whether we are or not, economic recovery from here is likely to be shallow given the headwinds from the housing decline.  So I am not makiing the case that the economy is going gangbusters - clearly it is not.  But it is doing OK - particularly for an economic slowdown and considering the sub-prime mortage mess.  The constant drumbeat you read in the media on how bad the economy supposedly is right now is mostly nonsense.

It is quite possible that by next fall, we will be back in positive territory and the data just might show that we never entered a recession at all.

The recession that never was.

(HINT:  I can already tell you the MSM spin.  They will insist that the technical data is unimportant.  They will make the garbage claim that, "Except for the top 10%, the economy is in recession" - or words to that effect.)

MWL

Funny how the Dem backers blame the recession on Bush when it appears we may not even go into a recession, but don't acknowledge that it was the Clinton admin that huffed and puffed the tech bubble that blew up just after Bush took over.

Tim

And, don't forget the hell Dubya took for simply stating the economy needed watching, the Democrats accused him of "talking down the economy".

In fact, the economy needed watching, it was set to blow.

The biggest sad sack of all was Jimmy Carter. He could really make the American citizens feel like crap, what with his America last leanings.

Rick

The predicate to the view that we are not in "recession" is that one accepts the government's macro-statistics at face value.

I do not.  Each succeeding Administration has become more adept at tweaking the calculation of statistics to make things seem better than reality. (e.g. GDP continuing to grow, yet inflation under control). 

Consider as "Exhibit A"  today's release of the CPI in which, the govt reports that energy prices were flat in April.     Flat energy prices.  Sure.  That's a laugh.

If I recall (however vaguely) when calculating GDP growth stats, the govt tallies spending from one period to the next, then deflates/discounts the increase by the amount of inflation, thereby arriving at "real" GDP.   So if spending rises 3%, but reported inflation is only 1%, GDP real growth is 2%.     The problem is that inflation continues to be massively UNDERcounted by the Govt.   For most folks living in the real world,  that 3% rise in spending (as an example) has been met by 5% or 7% inflation -- meaning a drop in real purchasing power and income.

I maintain we are in a recession:  but Big Brother simply won't tell us.

What evidence do you have that we are in a recession?  Or that inflation has been under counted.

The market has recovered significantly off its lows.  Real GDP was up a meager 0.6% in the first quarter.  Job loss has been lower than expected. 

If Obama were president right now, would you be saying just the opposite?   

EagleTed:

Faith based economics. Interesting.

*dabbing coffee from laptop screen*

Hetty Award!

Even in a recessionary environment, this honor can be recyled for a dime.

Off to picket the local Conoco, demanding cheap gas, Gov.  Hey, there's an upside to everything.  I can drop a pound or two while walking in a circle.

;)

Hetty 

Ben Stein chimes in on this very subject with his latest YahooFinance article:

"Recessions Are in the Eye of the Beholder"

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/81478;_ylt=AmnTEqU5HAeQ2CR9ULreDlKER4V4

Coy

I couldnt agree more Twin.  I think the decline of the dollar has greatly helped stem a wider recessionary trend by increasing our exports in mfg. and other services. 

The financial industry is the main culprit but i think we are now getting through most of the turmoil.  Housing has a much longer way to go.  But with housing, it is completely dependent on location.  Here in Denver, they were saying that housing prices have actually risen so far this year. 

The price of gas is going to ripple through the economy starting next month as the prices of goods will have to compensate for the cost of shipping (another reason we need more rail in this country). 

I agree mostly with Ben Stein.

Some things  I have noted; the last time we ate at Chili's and Shells, both restaurants were uncharacteristically near empty.

And, that makes alot of sense to me. Eating out (I still consider it a want, not a need) is one activity that can easily free up a pretty nice chunk of money to be redirected to other areas, like gas.

Other areas, like malls seem to be holding up. I know of no person idle against their wishes. Florida's unemployment is at 4.9%, many states are even in the 3%-4% range. Of course there are a couple of rust belt states that are sporting high numbers, but frankly the people will probably need to leave before they prosper again. Maybe the folks in Michigan (7.2%) could move to Idaho (3.0%) or Iowa (3.5%).

Honestly, I've often thought longterm unemployment benefits (say after 2 or 3 months) should only be given if people moved to more prosperous areas of the nation.

But, what do I know? I'm a rich, fat-cat  (according to most Democrats) Republican living in a walled/fenced community (not gated, though!).

My family, friends (and friend's families) and neighbors (and neighbor's families) are all doing fine, SO FAR in the imaginary recession of '08.

Queen Hetty, perhaps you can whip up some tee shirts that proclaim: I survived the 2008 Recession, if it Really Happened!,  OR  I survived the 2008 Recession, and all I got was this lousey Tee Shirt!!

Rick

If it bleeds, it leads. In the news business extremes sell. Muddling through is just not news.

Another Rick 

Rick Hamilton:

I agree mostly with Ben Stein.

Some things  I have noted; the last time we ate at Chili's and Shells, both restaurants were uncharacteristically near empty.

And, that makes alot of sense to me. Eating out (I still consider it a want, not a need) is one activity that can easily free up a pretty nice chunk of money to be redirected to other areas, like gas.

Other areas, like malls seem to be holding up. I know of no person idle against their wishes. Florida's unemployment is at 4.9%, many states are even in the 3%-4% range. Of course there are a couple of rust belt states that are sporting high numbers, but frankly the people will probably need to leave before they prosper again. Maybe the folks in Michigan (7.2%) could move to Idaho (3.0%) or Iowa (3.5%).

Honestly, I've often thought longterm unemployment benefits (say after 2 or 3 months) should only be given if people moved to more prosperous areas of the nation.

But, what do I know? I'm a rich, fat-cat  (according to most Democrats) Republican living in a walled/fenced community (not gated, though!).

My family, friends (and friend's families) and neighbors (and neighbor's families) are all doing fine, SO FAR in the imaginary recession of '08.

Queen Hetty, perhaps you can whip up some tee shirts that proclaim: I survived the 2008 Recession, if it Really Happened!,  OR  I survived the 2008 Recession, and all I got was this lousey Tee Shirt!!

Rick

 

  

 

 

Sir Rick:  HEIC (Head Elf In Charge) memoed me and asked that I convey to you his thanks for the idea for new T-shirts.  He and other Palace Elves are putting together the new line with your suggestions.  

Another big seller should be WANT CHEAP GAS?  EAT FRIJOLES.

Here's what's going on out here in La La Left Coast Land.  Stopped at the bank to deposit a small manufacturer's rebate check I forgot I had.  There was a time when I didn't have the luxury of overlooking ANY amount of money, especially during the stagflation of the '70's.  Yesh, I can buy gasoline, frightening as the total may be.  At times back in disco days, there wasn't any gas to buy, period.  There is the additional expense of feeding cheese to the mice that power my 4-cylinder Corolla, but it's worth it.

I dashed into a little Chinese takeout joint just before noon, and other than the owner, had the place to myself.  Usually the line's going out to the street.  Two minutes later it was, as usual.  Good timing is its own payoff.

Yesterday morning I scraped together pennies from the Royal Mad Money Fund and took a good friend, a real estate broker with an international clientele, to a belated birthday breakfast.  How's business? Picking up.  To many, this dip in prices is a chance to bargain hunt.  Crazy as it may seem, to someone based in London, Paris or Hong Kong, LA real estate, especially if looking for a second/vacation home/investment property, is rather cheap in comparison.

During the breakfast, a group of professional-looking young women were having a lively networking type of meeting.  No one was in tears...lots of laughs.  One gal wandered over to our table and said, "Ladies, you're part of our group this morning, so here's my card and flyer."   Her service?  Clutter control, especially in your home.  I did a double take because she was a dead ringer for Niecey, the former hostess of a show on cable called CLEAN HOUSE that featured the results of the same type of service.  She read my expression and mind and quipped, "Yep, I do look like her, so I use it to my advantage initially."  We all had an additional laugh about that one.

Now, Sir Rick, if people are willing to pay someone to help them go through all their "stuff" and neaten up, things aren't too horrible in the 'hood.,  In its own fashion, much of SoCali had its own recession ahead of the curve when the WGA was on strike.  Not only do entertainment jobs go, but the support services such as restros, florists, car repair and detailing and retail take a big hit.   Strike ended and production and such geared up again.

If I had the choice between the economy I faced going into 1979 and the one 2009 may bring, I'll take the latter.  There are far more ways to turn a buck today than then, even for ordinary Royalty.

:)

qh1 

 P.S. Wow, I had 2 fortunes tucked into my cookie:

YOU ATTRACT CULTURED AND ARTISTIC PEOPLE

Latte-drinking, arugula-eating elitists perhaps? 

and

INVEST, BUT NEVER SPECULATE. 

:) Kachinggggggggggggggggggggg$$$$$ 

Hetty-

There was an opinion piece in today's WSJ that goes along with what you said. 

According to the most recent polls, more than 75% of the American public believes the economy is in bad shape. All three remaining candidates for president are treating the economy as the biggest electoral issue, and all agree the situation is dire.

The normally sanguine Alan Greenspan recently observed that the current economic mess is "the most wrenching" since World War II; Fortune magazine's Allan Sloan, who's been covering the business of business for decades says, "I'm more nervous about the world financial system than I've ever been in 40 years."

There is no denying that the current financial morass is deep and painful. But taking the long view, there is something both startling and disturbing about the gloom that has settled over Wall Street and the country in general. In fact, looking back over the past century, it would be a stretch to rank the current problems as especially notable or dramatic. Something else is going on – namely a cultural rut of pessimism that is draining our collective energy, blinding us to possibilities, and eroding our position in the world.

Who Stole the American Spirit
 

Governor:

Hetty-

There was an opinion piece in today's WSJ that goes along with what you said. 

According to the most recent polls, more than 75% of the American public believes the economy is in bad shape. All three remaining candidates for president are treating the economy as the biggest electoral issue, and all agree the situation is dire.

The normally sanguine Alan Greenspan recently observed that the current economic mess is "the most wrenching" since World War II; Fortune magazine's Allan Sloan, who's been covering the business of business for decades says, "I'm more nervous about the world financial system than I've ever been in 40 years."

There is no denying that the current financial morass is deep and painful. But taking the long view, there is something both startling and disturbing about the gloom that has settled over Wall Street and the country in general. In fact, looking back over the past century, it would be a stretch to rank the current problems as especially notable or dramatic. Something else is going on – namely a cultural rut of pessimism that is draining our collective energy, blinding us to possibilities, and eroding our position in the world.

Who Stole the American Spirit
 

Thanks for the link, Gov, a good article.   One of the key words in it:  "spirit."  The human spirit can be wounded but never completely destroyed. 

Most of us got up this morning and were able to do pretty much whatever we needed or chose to do.  We aren't digging our way out of the rubble in China or looking for food in Myanmar.  As an old friend once remarked, "Any morning I wake up and I'm not on a train to a death camp is a good day."   

Here's a link to a montage you may enjoy from a time when things truly were tough:

http://www.ameshistoricalsociety.org/exhibits/events/rationing.htm

..and even from this era came some of the best film, music, books and plays ever created.

;)

qh1 the semi-artistic and quasi-cultured 

Good points all.

Restaurants in our area are packed.  When we recently visited relatives in Florida, not at all.  The idea of "pockets" of recession may make some sense.  As I said, I am not claiming a great economy - only that those claiming "The worst economy since Hoover, I tell you" are overstating things, and were Obama and the Deomcrats in control, they would not be complaining.  (Of course, Republicans would be so there would still be some gloom and doom.)

Great article on, "Who stole the American Spirit" BTW.  (Hint: our media is a main culprit.

BTW, in my gift or prophesy department :-) , I see that today's Wall Street Journal also has a article on page one, headlined:

Recession? Not So Fast, Say Some.  Despite Pain, Economists Begin Dialing Back Dire Forecasts"

The article starts:

"A funny thing happened to the economy on the way to recession: It's taken a detour.  That, at least, is the view of a growing number of leading economists - including some who not long ago were saying a recession was all but inevitable ...."

MWL

Governor: "..What evidence do you have that we are in a recession?  Or that inflation has been under counted."

-----------------

The obvious answer re inflation is for you to trust the evidence of your own eyes (after you pull them away from Faux News Network).   Go to the store check the prices.   Go fill up your gas tank. Look at the prices. Look at the premiums you are paying for health insurance.   The evidence is the empirical behavior of prices,  on the ground.   As to recession, that is a question of GDP growth, which in turn is dependent on govt-reported inflation.   Its simple arithmatic:  Start with bad numbers and all numbers derived from the incorrect number are also incorrect. 

The old question:  "If a tree falls down in a forest and no one sees it fall, did it?"    The retort of yourself and EagleT seems to be:  "That depends.  What does Pres. Bush want me to say."

If the evidence of your own eyes is insufficient,   try this link:

 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843%2D69B4%2D4C0C%2D92CE%2DB835D9907945%7D

The full article it refers to is worth a read, especially for those who think they should trust the Govt economic statistics. It can be found in the May 2008 Harpers magazine.

Yikes...  careful, there may not be enough tin foil on your head!  They are coming for you.... 

I like how Fox is the Faux news network when they have the most accurate reporting, per Clinton and several other Dems, of the presidential race.  Perhaps you should turn your eyes away from the looney leftist sites like Daily Kos or MSNBC where they spew the real fake news.  Is CBS a fake news channel?  I seem to remember them making up stories of Bush and getting caught, perhaps helping him get re-elected, yet Fox is the fake one.  GET REAL! 

Second, inflation being high, which it is, doesnt mean we are in a recession.  Two consecutive quarters of negative growth does.  We had a real rate of +0.6% in the first quarter.  Thats after inflation.  Thus, its not possible to be in a recession.  Let me guess, the numbers were real and could be trusted in the 90's, just up until Jan of 2001.  RIGHT?

PS.  Harpers is another FAUX news magazine!!

Gov: " inflation being high, which it is, doesnt mean we are in a recession."

Actually, it kinda DOES.   Consider:

When computing GDP growth, the govt tallies its spending/production numbers to come up with a nominal GDP figure.. It  then deflates/decreases/adjusts  that number, to remove the effect that inflation has on its calculation so as to report "real" GDP, vs GDP which is distorted by price increases.     So that if the govt's initial tally (prior to them deflating the number) shows nominal  1.0% GDP, but their phony inflation shows only 0.4%, then "real" GDP computes to 0.6% "real GDP growth".   But if real inflation is 3%, then GDP growth would be a negative (2%) [i.e. nominal 1% GDP LESS 3% inflation).

The phony CPI/PPI numbers are the fulcrum that the govt uses to show that "growth" continues, despite the reality we see before our own eyes.

And EagleT thought I was engaged in 'faith based economics".  Sheesh.

pining4Lenore:

Governor: "..What evidence do you have that we are in a recession?  Or that inflation has been under counted."

-----------------

The obvious answer re inflation is for you to trust the evidence of your own eyes (after you pull them away from Faux News Network).   Go to the store check the prices.   Go fill up your gas tank. Look at the prices. Look at the premiums you are paying for health insurance.   The evidence is the empirical behavior of prices,  on the ground.   As to recession, that is a question of GDP growth, which in turn is dependent on govt-reported inflation.   Its simple arithmatic:  Start with bad numbers and all numbers derived from the incorrect number are also incorrect. 

The old question:  "If a tree falls down in a forest and no one sees it fall, did it?"    The retort of yourself and EagleT seems to be:  "That depends.  What does Pres. Bush want me to say."

If the evidence of your own eyes is insufficient,   try this link:

 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843%2D69B4%2D4C0C%2D92CE%2DB835D9907945%7D

 

The full article it refers to is worth a read, especially for those who think they should trust the Govt economic statistics. It can be found in the May 2008 Harpers magazine.

 

 

inflation?