Discuss

Selling off a Portion of My Bond Portfolio

rescarr — Sat, 18 May 2013 15:05:53 GMT

Warren Buffet made a comment during an interview at Berkshire Hathaways Stock Holders Meeting which was broadcasted on CNBC about 2 weeks ago that he's not a big fan of bonds and that one should be totally invested in equity.

So with that in mind is it to late to sell off a small portion if not all of 90-100,000 of bonds and put it into equity on Monday Morning, 20 May 2013. I am still making a profit on my fixed side. All of the bonds are in my Traditional Account and I have the following: New Income, High Yield, Emerging Markets Bonds and International Bonds.

All I am trying to do is capitalize on the movement of the market. I am also not looking at the way the market is going thru rose colored glasses either. I like a few others do expect a sell off at some point but just how much of a sell off there will be is anyones guess.

Looking for anyones thoughts and opinions. My portfilio is up 10% since the beginning of the year and up about 23% since a year ago.

About That Debt Crisis? Never Mind

torino — Sun, 19 May 2013 07:55:06 GMT

OK, another toe dipped in reality. The new CBO numbers are out, and they scream “debt crisis? What debt crisis?” Here’s the actual and projected ratio of federal debt to GDP:

Meanwhile, our policy discourse has been dominated for years by what turns out to be a false alarm. To the millions of Americans who are out of work and may never get another job thanks to premature fiscal austerity, the VSPs would like to say, “oopsies!” ----- Of course for the far-right this was never about deficits. They just hate Social Security and Medicare and want an excuse to destroy it.

Looking For Beaten Up Sectors

AlStan — Tue, 07 May 2013 18:48:05 GMT

Hi All,

With the stock market being very hot and reaching all time highs of late, I have been thinking about a different approach to my investing. I am currently 22 years old, I have been investing for about 4 years now. That being said, I clearly have a very long time for investing and I can afford to be more aggressive at this point in my life. The best investing time for me is any time the market goes down, because all I have is time to wait for it to go back up. While the market is at all time highs, I was wondering if there are any sectors that have not moved up with it, or better yet, that have moved down when the market has gone up. I want to take a look at beaten up sectors to put my money into rather than investing when the prices are all generally higher. Does anyone have any good suggestions on beaten up markets/sectors? Any input on this strategy is welcomed as well, I am curios to hear opinions. Thanks in advanced for all replies.

AlStan

I hate Wellesley

FD1000 — Tue, 14 May 2013 03:25:19 GMT

How many times can we post about VWINX,PAUIX and PDI?

VWINX is so old and so not diversify...why would you invest in it? and now when bonds are in a bubble (really?) you want to invest in this fund? is this fund flexible enough to change?

Beginning to sell some Wellesley

bilperk — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 23:06:32 GMT

While still maintaining my stock bond allocation of aprox 35/58/7, I am beginning to sell down my Wellesley and putting the proceeds in short term bond fund, High yield fund, Wellington, and equity income. My reason is simply that the volume of posts on M* about bonds, rate increases, potential losses and so on, compared to the number of posts about stocks hitting all-time highs. I see this as a red flag. The main objective is to shorten my overall duration while maintaining the same level of yield. I can do this by mixing High yield and short term bonds. I also can further reduce it, in needed, by going to higher levels of cash. The current level of cash is mainly held in the mutual funds above and 2% I bonds I have held since 2002, and a smallish spending MM. At this point I have sold about 25% of my Wellesley.

Not really posting this for advice or to offer advice to anyone else. But since I have been a vocal advocate of Wellesley over the years, I just wanted to say what I'm doing now.

BTW, the above funds are just about all I own now. Many would say this is not diversified. I would agree for those looking for optimal return with somewhat higher risk. But, overall, they hold about 300 high quality stocks, have a current PE of about 12.2 according to X-ray, and pay me enough income to meet my withdrawal and still reinvest some. I'm satisfied with both the results and the simplicity.

Where to put the new money now?

correia — Mon, 20 May 2013 01:10:55 GMT

Folks,

I have about 50K cash which I would like to put to work. I am aggressive investor but not as aggressive as to invest in options or for that matter in a single company shares. I would appreciate if anybody has suggestions.

Pimco Income fund

barefootjan — Wed, 15 May 2013 21:17:28 GMT

I'm considering putting $20K or so into Pimco's Income fund (lump sum). Since their stated goal is current income, this seems like as a good a time as any to buy.....or is it?

Any thoughts?

Jan

PS I notice they have quite a few classes of this fund - which is the most ecomical? I can buy through Vanguard brokerage or direct, whichever is cheaper.

thanks

Retirement Portfolio help please...

Greatbig — Sat, 18 May 2013 15:00:26 GMT

Good Morning all...

Long time lurker and first time post in many years.

I am about to retire (12 months or so) and want to reset my allocation appropriately.

I have tried to present our current overall situation below, but sure there will be some clarification needed...so ask away.

Married, both in good health thankfully. Age 66-full time employed, wife 63 very part time employed.

No mortgage and no other debt.

Approx 2.5M total portfolio--75% in qualified plans and 25% in non-qualified plans.

Current overall allocation is about 45% equity, 30% bonds, and 25% cash. Stock and bond funds were set up about 15 years ago by good FA and is well balanced in a number of primarily Vanguard and DFA funds. In addition to the funds, we have about 5% of the portfolio in large cap, long time dividend paying stocks.

Nervously road down 2008/2009 without bailing out.

My current thinking for reallocation is shown in the suitcase (assuming I did all that correctly)...but if 100% comfortable with it, I wouldn't be posting.

We live modestly and would like to withdraw approximately 2.5%, but could easily drop down to 2% as needed.

Want to accomplish this without micro-managing and frequently switching things around too much...at least that is my hope.

Frankly I could be very happy with some sort of VWIAX/VWINX/WHGIX combination...but hesitant to but all eggs in such a few baskets.

All questions/thoughts/comments are welcome, so ask away.

Thanks so much for any time you are able to spend assisting me.

Pat

Bogleheads Guide to Investing

JCT1000 — Sun, 19 May 2013 19:52:24 GMT

Hi,

I just finished this book. I would like to read one of Mr. Bogle's books. I can get the ebook for my iPad of Common Sense on Mutual Funds (the updated edition), or should I look for his earlier book, Mutual Fund: New Perspectives?

Also, Do you still recommend Roger Gibson's book on Asset Allocation?

Thanks to all of you for your insights and help.

TA - May ... Is it time for caution?

bubbygator — Wed, 01 May 2013 14:30:18 GMT

Just a starter for the new thread.

With my latest sells, I'm at 32% cash ... and kinda dragging my feet about jumping back in to being fully invested.

THE STENCH OF PROGRESSIVE GOVERNMENT

SaintCroix — Thu, 16 May 2013 03:23:28 GMT

THE STENCH OF PROGRESSIVE GOVERNMENT

But the industry official who had knowledge of the calls but did not participate directly in them said there was a clear insinuation by the administration that the insurers should give financially to the nonprofits.

Meredith McGehee, policy director for the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center, which researches government ethics issues, said she was troubled by Sebelius’s activities because the secretary seemed to be “using the power of government to compel giving or insinuate that giving is going to be looked at favorably by the government.”

Is HHS Secretary Sebelius’s Solicitation of Private Industry Support for Obamacare Illegal, or Merely Unethical?

Don’t forget about HHS’ Obamacare shakedown

Medicare advantage disenrollment & Guaranteed Issue Rights

beamray — Sun, 19 May 2013 17:23:44 GMT

Wife has MA but since a slight heart valve problem was detected she would be underwritten if tried to switch to a medigap policy, they may/would not issue.

There are certain rules that apply to MA disenrollment with guaranteed issue rights,which she would not fall under.

My fear if when the government stops funding the MA plans to the extent
it is now,cost up and coverage down, there will be no escape from the trap. Unless of course they add some sort of special provision to the law,but have not seen anything on that.
They may drive people from MA but with nowhere to go,unless they change the law to a guarateed issue rights.
This is the reason I am getting medigap plan F HD for myself. What has this got to do with investing,the more I spend on healthcare the less I have.
.
Any thoughts.
Thank Old Mike

One, Two or Three Discount Brokers

sixsix — Sat, 18 May 2013 21:58:10 GMT

I have three brokers and am thinking of consolidating it to just one. I currently feel that three provide better diversification and safety if there ever is a problem. However one would be more convenient. Any insights?

I would like some recommendations.

wildstar — Wed, 15 May 2013 00:32:00 GMT

I have 75% of my Retirement in TRRCX,however it is a little low on bonds ,and I am looking for a fund that would complement TRRCX,add some bonds and more yield,to my portfolio,any recommendations would be appreciated.

Wildstar

Fido Floating Rate FFRHX Downgraded by M*

yogibearbull — Mon, 13 May 2013 11:05:24 GMT

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=596490

"Our view changed more dramatically at Fidelity Floating Rate High Income (FFRHX), where manager Christine McConnell’s retirement is a real blow. Thus, we lowered the fund to Bronze from Gold because of concerns about changes in strategy and execution under new manager Eric Mollenhauer. While Mollenhauer has two decades of experience, we have only a two-year public record from Fidelity Series Floating Rate High Income (FFHCX). On the plus side, he’s supported by a strong team of analysts. "

Any Thoughts About Alternatives to TIAA

LearningStill — Sun, 19 May 2013 01:57:49 GMT

Now that we know that after August 3,2013 TIAA-CREF will offer a greatly reduced rate of return, what do others plan to use as a vehicle within TIAA-CREF for "taking money off the table" when attempting to lock in the remarkable returns for equities to date?

In the past I have used TIAA as such a vehicle, knowing that the NAV will remain stable plus will earn around 3%. Thus one seemingly avoids the possibility of losing the gains which have been seen to date.

I am not yet ready to invest these gains in bonds.

I am retired any therefore capital preservation has become a high priority.

Thoughts?

Yogi and others. My ML Portfolio

clwatt1950 — Sun, 19 May 2013 22:02:39 GMT

Back on July 01,2011 I moved my ML's Portfolio to Vanguard and Purchased 50% VBTLX Total Bond Index and 50% VBRIX Short Term Bond. On April 04 2013 I moved about 50% from VBTLX to VBLIX Interm-Term Bond Index. As of today ML Portfolio is up 4% from July 01, 2011. This move from CD'S that were paying less than .5% have made her very happy. She now knows I would not take advantage of her and why would I. My wife is a only child. I'm now thinking of choosing VTINX OR VWIAX 100%. She doesn't need income from this portfolio. I would appreciate your thought's.

Thank you

Carlos

T-C Goes Shopping in LV

yogibearbull — Thu, 16 May 2013 22:39:24 GMT

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ggp-and-tiaa-cref-enter-partnership-to-own-the-grand-canal-shoppes-207768171.html

"General Growth Properties, Inc. (NYSE: GGP) and TIAA-CREF announced today they have formed a partnership to own and operate The Grand Canal Shoppes, including The Shoppes at the Palazzo, located in Las Vegas, Nevada.....The Grand Canal Shoppes is located at the heart of the Las Vegas Strip within The Venetian and The Palazzo hotel, casino and resort complex. The property is 99 percent leased and comprises approximately 774,000 square feet of gross leasable area occupied by upscale retailers and restaurants. The Grand Canal Shoppes generates more than $1,000 of sales per square foot.....Effective with the partnership formation, GGP and TIAA-CREF will each own approximately 50 percent of The Grand Canal Shoppes. The partnership is limited to the retail portion of the property. Prior to the formation of the partnership, GGP owned 100 percent of the property. The transaction generated approximately $410 million of net proceeds, and GGP will continue to provide management and leasing services......"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/general-growth-sells-stake-in-las-vegas-shopping-mall.html

From Barron’s, May 20, 2013 (Part 1)

yogibearbull — Sat, 18 May 2013 13:32:26 GMT

Pg M3, Trader: All-time new highs, again! The biggest fear seems to be that of being left out and a bit of caution is recommended. Some heavily shorted stocks have moved up big [TSLA +140% since March] as bears have thrown in the towel. Some valuations are stretched [OWW +250% since November; SIX +200% since October 2011].

For the week, Dow +1.56%, SP500 +2.07%, Nasdaq Comp +1.82%, Russell 2000 +2.17%

Pg M6, Europe: Verizon [VZ; forward P/E 16.7] may want to buy the remainder [45%] of Verizon Wireless [est. value $100-130 billion] more than the Vodafone [VOD; forward P/E 12; market cap $148 billion] wants to sell. Some say that VZ may have buy the whole of VOD to get its hands on all of Verizon Wireless that throws juicy dividends to VOD, about 7% of VOD’s market cap. Also attractive is another telecom stock, BT Group [BT], which has started a promotion of free sports channels to attract subscribers.

Pg M7, Emerging Markets: Investors are more enthusiastic about EM bonds [ETF CEMB +0.9% YTD; yield 3.4%] than EM stocks [EEM -2.2% YTD; SD 21.5]. Witness the reception of the majority state-owned Petrobras’ [PBR] 10-yr, $11 billion bond issue that was oversubscribed 3.6x and yielded 4.522% [260 bps over US 10-yr and 160 bps over Brazilian 10-yr]. Of course, the PBR stock is hated and under-owned. Many non-EM-bond mutual funds are now holding EM-bonds.

Pg M7: Asia: Corporate Japan took note when the activist hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, with 6.5% stake, flew to Tokyo and hand delivered a letter to the Sony [6758.ja; +190% from December; EV/EBITDA ~ 6] chief in his office with the idea to divest/spinoff Sony Entertainment. With or without Loeb, Sony has a good upside.

Pg M9, Yields: Japan’s massive bond buying program succeeded in weakening the yen, boosting the Japanese stocks, but it failed to keep yields low on JGB’s [Japan’s 10-yr now yield 0.812%, up from 0.535% in early-April]. The US Treasuries were weak too as Buffett and Gross made bearish comments on bonds [and some Fed Governors made comments on QE]. The HY bonds fell to yield 5.2%. Surprisingly, the European bonds did well as yields fell and Fitch upgraded Greece.

Treasury rates 10-yr 1.952%. TIPS to 01/27 maturities had negative real-rates and those with higher maturities had real-rates at or under 0.673% [M35]. No Treasury auctions this week except for T-Bills [M47]. Top 5-yr CDs are under 1.60% [M49]. Dollar rose, DXY 84.21; yen was at 103 and falling, -24% in 52 wks [M50]. Gold fell hard to 1,365, and the miners fell in sympathy too [M50].

Pg M10, Options: There is free lunch in lagging and out of favor cyclical stock options – they don’t have much greed or fear premium and will move if the cyclical theme works out. Goldman Sachs has identified 5 cheapest global cyclicals, FCX, QCOM, MRO, DOW, SLB. FWIW, big hedge funds are buying August 1725 calls for SP500. Wednesday is the 40^th anniversary of CBOE and Barron’s is cosponsoring a panel [Scholes, Brodsky, Peterffy, Gregory, McMillan, Sears] that will be webcast by the CBOE. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703591404578458914088761882.html?mod=BOL_twm_mw

Pg M11: Commodities: Palladium is the top pick in the precious metal sector. There is strong demand from catalytic convertors in cars as the auto production ramps up in the US and China. The supply is shaky with production problems in South Africa and Russia. Palladium is volatile, and after a 16-mo high in February, it sold off in sympathy with the rout in gold, but the palladium rally will resume.

Pg M34, M40: A good week in Europe [Greece +13.63%, Norway -1.38%] and a flat week in Asia [Japan +3.40%, China -1.37%; India rose for the 5^th week]. The CEF equity index has outperformed DJIA but its discount widened a bit to -8.45%.

Cover story, “Cues from Cooperman” is in the PENTA Supplement. There are features on Leon Cooperman and Steve Einhorn – they are bullish on the US economy and the stock market; Cooperman likes S, RIG, C. They do expect a consolidation here, may be a prolonged one before the bull market resumes. There are other features on travel [Scottish resort Gleneagles], history [Lowell, MA], fine Italian watches, light/smaller jets, the residential yacht The World, India’s Tata’s luxury cars [Jaguar, Land Rover], hedge fund rankings, Bank of Montreal’s remake of myCFO [acquired from Jim Clark in 2002] and its courting of the Silicon Valley’s rich, 2013 tax tips [low-cost variable annuities, charitable remainder trust, etc], and divorce trusts [self-settled trusts, Delaware statutory trust].

Supplement 2: “Remembering Alan Abelson, 1925-2013”, has 16 pages of comments from Barron’s colleagues, Roundtable panelists and few Wall Street folks. A letter from the editor, Lauren Rublin, sets the stage, http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704551504578481073807488136.html?mod=BOL_twm_fs

All links mentioned are open today.

More later……

Alternatives to AMECX and CAIBX

playbook — Sat, 18 May 2013 22:20:58 GMT

These 2 funds amount to 42% of my portfolio. TIBIX is 23% and Friax is another 10%, which in total make up the core of my portfolio at 75% of my investments. I want to keep these AF's at current levels and continue investing in income funds similar to the AF's but do not want any more exposure to these particular funds. I'd like alternative no load funds similar in composition with ~4% yield. Any suggestions?

Thanks.

A Reality Check on Longevity Risk

RFK2010 — Sat, 11 May 2013 09:54:35 GMT

AT:596502CMSArticle

1 year from pulling the plug;what to do?

larryonsatori — Thu, 16 May 2013 23:42:46 GMT

we have exactly one year till our business closes it's door. The nest egg, as of today, is workable, if not as much we would like it be. We all know where the markets are at right now,,,,,,,, do I ride my current AA and let it fly? Or do we totally take it all off the table and start retirement with a stash that is marginally acceptable?

Thanks in advance for your ideas.

Roth TSP

RZBKAV8R — Sun, 19 May 2013 16:24:07 GMT

Aloha,

I'm looking for some general advice about TSP contributions. First, my information. 30 years old, wife and baby. I am an active duty Naval Officer (O-3). I have a 70K traditional TSP account (L2050), a 30K Roth IRA (VHCOX, VTSAX, VGTSX), 14K in a brokerage account (DVN, APA, NOV, SU, and FSTMX), and 82K in savings for a possible house or an attractive investment. The wife has 35K between Roth IRA and 401K (VFIFX). We have minimal debt (modest car payment).

I have always contributed about 20% of my paycheck to the traditional TSP. The Roth TSP is relatively new, and allows a contribution of up to $17,500 per year. If I maxed this out each year and continued to contribute to my Vanguard Roth, I could have 23K of Roth contributions per year. As a relatively young buck with a 30+ year investing horizon, is this a smart move?

Thanks for your time and responses. I welcome any and all perspectives, regarding my original question or my overall financial picture. I have only recently begun to take an interest in long term investing, and the M* forums have been a great resource.

New April 2013 Model Portfolios

AviOren — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 01:26:08 GMT

AT:167196News

what is risk, how much diversification is too much?

JL50 — Sat, 18 May 2013 03:17:37 GMT

any thoughts?