It is certainly not too late for DUG and I might be a bit early.  My decision point was the daily price and volume chart for DUG.  The volume has shot up while the price has formed a double bottom.  I also have a tight stop.

uh

I can't disagree with your analysis and admire your courage.

Right now I am too busy doing some modest "Omen-izing" for my portfolio which I spent the weekend planning and don't want to allocate the mental bandwidth to what would of necessity be a very small position for me...... Yet.

 Good luck.

You're shorting the energy sector???   That's brave.

Other ideas:

• Challenge Roger Federer to a game of tennis.
• Convince George W. Bush to say the words, "I was wrong" in any context.
  
• Persuade a Vanguard Diehard to admit that market timing is good.

Thanks.........  It's working so far.   I just bumped my stop above the purchase price, so I am in the green if everything else works.

  This reminds me of the guy that fell off the roof of a 100 story building.  As he passed each story, people would ask how he was doing.  He kept anserwing, "So far, so good."  [Steve McQueen in The Magnificent Seven.]

  lol

uh

To step into the Ring against one of the truly Great Bulls in history with a flourish and face the risks fearlessly deserves an

Olé!!!!!!!!

Olé!!!!!!!!

UH,

May I remind you of another Steve McQueen quote from the Magnificent Seven?  "It seemed like a good idea at the time... "

I tip my hat to you, Sir!  I cannot begin to imagine making a similar trade myself, now, later or ever.  Someday I hope to meet you and buy you dinner and a beer just for the privilege of listening to some of your investment experiences.

BytheNbrs

It seems we got enough sagging in the price of oil to get the indexes to move back toward the top of their range. Still today was largely meaningless from a borader technical perspective. The .SPX got through 1400 but stalled out short of its 200 ema which I show at 1406. Beyond that there is 1422-23 and 1445-50 presenting resistance. That seems a fairly formidable obstacle right now.

Still this market meets the technical definition of "Weird"! On a day when the Dow was up 130 we had fewer new highs than Friday and thus not enough new highs to generate an Omen. That is good news I guess.

On the other hand if you were in the mood to shop defensively today the market produced some discounts.

Bythe -- how thoughtful of you! Of course if UH taunts the Oil Bull too much, too long you may have to buy.:-)

Remember that bull in The Magnificent 7???  He was very old and very tired, somewhat like the bull in oil & gas.  He needs a rest and a good feed.....

  The amount of short selling is something I am watching because, as DI pointed out, they all have to buy back those shares,  but I think I can make wages on this trade anyway.  Tomorrow morning I can bump up my stop by a dollar per share, so unless this thing sells off in the morning, there is very little risk left for me & my principal. 

uh

Has this no-volume sucker's rally finally petered out?

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/lowest-nyse-vol.html

I guess no one's putting their stimulus checks to work in the market.  Who knows, maybe people will piss it all away like the government wants.

 Yes. I could be wrong but YES.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/lowest-nyse-vol.html

In real live I bought some UCPIX today.