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Bonds, Dividends, and Income Streams
ken250 05-07-2008, 3:42 PM | Post #2515575 |  81 Replies
1  

I'm sure you've all seen or heard that the bond market is highly efficient, why is that?

Essentially, the bond market is highly efficient because the cash flows are basically in stone. The market knows the coupon rate, the face value, and how many payments remain until maturity. These future cash flows are discounted back to the present to arrive at today's price for the bond. Not much room for error here.

Now take a dividend stock.

The process is similar. Investors know the current dividend and earnings growth can be estimated (let's not argue about the precision of earnings estimates). Let's assume the dividend grows at the same rate as earnings, not a bad assumption. The only missing parameter in the determination of the stock's share price is the investor's required return. This can be determined using CAPM with estimates for the risk-free rate and the market's return, or it can be supplied by the investor based on knowledge of his personal situation. While there's more room for error in this case than there is in the bond case a fair estimate of the stock's intrinsic value can be determined. Again, the intrinsic value (ie price) is the sum of the future cash flows discounted back to today.

I think there might be a tendency to forget these things. People may be assuming if they hold a dividend stock forever and it continues to pump out growing dividends at some point in time the process of collecting or reinvesting the dividend becomes a gravy train. Well, it doesn't.

I'm not going to go as far as to claim a dividend is a return of capital, but remember you did pay for every cent in dividends received. 

Good Luck, Ken. 

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Re: Comments!
ElLobo 05-18-2008, 7:44 AM | Post #2519110
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Copie,

I wasn't trying to start a debate.  I just find it fascinating that all of the Canadian oilers pay healthy dividends, while all of the rest of the non-Canadian behemoths don't.  This ties in with personal finance, in terms of the concepts of personal yield, and with the idea of spending income, rather then capital, during retirement.

I understand that a good portion of Canadian oil is tied up in difficult to extract situations, and that the Canadian 'wildcaters' are leaders in the state of the art technologies involved.  I was/am interested in YOUR perspectives on this as well!

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Re: Comments!
bilperk 05-18-2008, 8:04 AM | Post #2519116
1  

Any closed end funds that invest in a diversified portfolio of tankers, MLPs, CONROYS (whatever the heck they are), pipelines, and such?  What type of current yield are these paying?

best,

Bill

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Re: Comments!
copie 05-18-2008, 8:25 AM | Post #2519122
1  

If I do not know or unterstand a subject I will always tell you and trusts is somethng that I have never looked into one way or other. If I had to guess I would think that companies worth is in total return over the years and trusts worth would be more in dividends paided, but this is not fact just my guess!

I think you are talking mostly about geting oil out of oil sands and you are right this is another animal all together as it takes a lot of energy to produce energy out of oil sands and that is why price of oil has to stay up to a certain level to make it worth while. I know Shell(RDS.A) is making large bets on it and they have or will develope the tech to get it done at a cheaper and cheaper price over time. IMO this will be a better way to go then to make gas out of corn as it takes 1 unit of energy to make 1.5 units of energy with corn.

My question to you is when are you west coast people going to let us drill some more off the west coast?:-)

Copie  

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Re: Comments!
cliff 05-18-2008, 8:47 AM | Post #2519126
0  
bilperk:

Any closed end funds that invest in a diversified portfolio of tankers, MLPs, CONROYS (whatever the heck they are), pipelines, and such?  What type of current yield are these paying?

There is one closed fund that I'm aware of that holds tankers, pipeline MLPs, some Canadian royalty trusts and a sprinkling of financial companies - both banks and business development companies.  It is a relatively focused fund, about 50 holdings.  The current yield of the 50 holdings is 7.75%.

This fund also is invested in another 15 companies - such as Alcoa, Harley Davidson, GE, Berkshire, Coke, Budweiser and Gilead, among others - in a proportion that bring the total current yield of the 65 down to 6.78%.

The ER is zero.  It's total return through mid-May is about 3%.  As I indicated, the fund is closed.  :)

Regards.

Cliff 

 

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Re: Comments!
bilperk 05-18-2008, 9:01 AM | Post #2519131
1  

That's mean, Cliff :o}  I was actually drooling until your last sentence.

 

Re: What do you see in FRO?
cliff 05-19-2008, 9:11 AM | Post #2519477
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ElLobo:

The FRO dividend, as with almost ALL tanker stocks, depends almost exclusively on the daily spot market cost of transporting crude oil.  Here is a sample of a weekly report that discusses this.

ElLobo, the recent reports are showing record-breaking rates.  There was an article on FRO in the most recent Barron's.  I think they report Q1 results in a couple of days.  The stock was up more than $2 a while ago, over $64.  Too much good news.

I sold half my position.

Regards.

Cliff 

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Re: Comments!
ElLobo 05-19-2008, 11:44 AM | Post #2519536
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Copie,

"My question to you is when are you west coast people going to let us drill some more off the west coast."

Don't get me started!

In general, I think the corporate structure and business model of the CanRoys is more akin to MLPs, BDCs, REITs, and CEFs then to the standard C corp structure of XOM, RDS, and the old money behemoths.  That's why I like the high current payouts, today, rather then the promise of future dividend increases.

Bill,

Regarding a CEF just for tankers, I think that would be a waste of time and money.  There would not be much sector diversification.  The only diversification I can think of is that between a tanker owner with it's fleet running on long term charters and another with it's fleet on the spot market.  That's probably the most important factor.  Some companys have part of their fleet on one strategy, the other part on the second.

I look at long term charter companys almost as if I'm holding their debt, while I look at spot market companys as owning equity.  This is simply from the standpoint of the volatility of earnings.

Regarding a CEF holding CanRoys, check out Enervest.

Cliff,

I think something might be happening with FRO.  There was chatter a few weeks ago about some merger.  There's continual talk about consolidation, there was the big spike in spot rates late last year that did not result in a corresponding spike in the last dividend.

Personally, I'm just sitting tight.  I hold no better 13% yield stock in my portfolio.  It is in all time new high share price territory.

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Re: Comments!
bilperk 05-19-2008, 12:07 PM | Post #2519545
1  

"Personally, I'm just sitting tight.  I hold no better 13% yield stock in my portfolio.  It is in all time new high share price territory."

Now, now, ElLobo..........Was FRO more or less risky before its price skyrocketed? :o}

 

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Cliff
StarHBre 05-19-2008, 12:29 PM | Post #2519550
1  

 

ElLobo, the recent reports are showing record-breaking rates.

 

http://www.world-check.com/articles/2008/05/09/iran-venezuela-use-oil-tankers-manipulate-gliobal-/

 

“Purportedly the governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela are engaged in a major covert effort to keep the world's oil tanker fleets from carrying petroleum to the thirsty global markets that need it. This is according to reliable sources who monitor the tanker industry, and sources within the American law enforcement community.”

 

Cliff, I'm not sure how this translates into risk or if it is even true, but I find it worrisome.

 

helmut 

 


 

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Re: Comments!
cliff 05-19-2008, 12:32 PM | Post #2519551
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ElLobo:

 I hold no better 13% yield stock in my portfolio.

I probably don't either (although PVX and PGH are close).

The IRS doesn't look at the math this way but . . . . . considering my purchase price and today's selling price of $64+ and all the dividends received in the last three years, I now own my remaining 50% of FRO at a price of ($14.49).  Wish they all worked like this.

I expect one day I'll be buying more FRO, when those spot rates are way off where they are today.  Because of the company's willingness to pay out its earnings, whatever they are, and the market's penchant for dissing the stock when rates and profits are down, buying opportunities present themselves periodically.

Anyway, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. 

Regards.

Cliff 

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Re: Comments!
ElLobo 05-19-2008, 2:54 PM | Post #2519598
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Bill,

"Was FRO more or less risky before its price skyrocketed? :o}"

Less.  Reversion to the mean arguments say the stock will more then likely fall, from it's current all time high, which is negative volatility risk.

From the standpoint of producing $130/year in dividends, for each $1000 invested, I would say that there's less risk, today, then at the start of the year, whenever daily spot rates were low.

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