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kerryvan
05-17-2008, 4:47 PM | Post #2518972 |
36 Replies
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Oildog, How I so disagree with your comment.. from another post, copied here. I think your portfolio has far too many funds. When people talk about "not putting your eggs in one basket," it is in reference to securities, not mutual funds. Generally, mutual funds are already widely diversified across a large number of securities, so there is no need to hold a large number of funds (unless you are allocating to specialty funds like FSDAX). If anything, holding a large number of active funds makes it more likely that your portfolio will perform like a market index fund, but with higher fees. I would look at the size of the portfolio, then choose the number of funds. when you have critical mass, then the fund count should grow. I don't hold any more than 10 % in a single fund. I make sure the overlap, via xray stocks is minimal. Owning multiple funds in the same classification, with no overlap is better than owning 30% in a given fund. Ask Magellon owners. As the portfolio grows, the number of holdings I own grows. If you are in the better funds, top 20%, then you'll do good. Make sure you are in funds that don't correlate, you'll come out ahead with less risk, another fido stat. So an approach with limited $ is to own diversified funds, then as it grows use re-balancing to obtain access to targeted funds. my $0.02 + interest |
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Re: Kerryvan, Portfolio Size
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Nagorak
05-19-2008, 4:45 AM | Post #2519416
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Kerryvan, one thing I think you may be underestimating is how your thinking changes (and needs to change) as your portfolio gets larger. For example, when your portfolio is $800,000, a 1% shift in value becomes $8000. If your portfolio gains or loses 10% you're looking at a gain or loss of around $80,000. Putting $80,000 (or more) in a fund will not seem as aggressive to such an individual as it might be to someone whose entire portfolio totals $80,000 (just an example). Just as right now you might feel someone with only $5000 to invest is silly in feeling uncomfortable putting it all in one fund, you'll also feel differently when your portfolio is larger.
That isn't to say I would invest 5 million in 50 stocks, if I had it. I probably would not feel comfortable doing that. But, I could see investing 5 million in around 100 stocks (200 max), and also a good amount of bonds.
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Re: Kerryvan, Portfolio Size
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kerryvan
05-19-2008, 5:46 AM | Post #2519419
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Kerryvan, one thing I think you may be underestimating is how your thinking changes (and needs to change) as your portfolio gets larger. I do understand this very well. I noticed I'm holding more funds that I would not have held many yrs ago. In the early 80's I was in gold, and I got out 90% of it due to the swings. Today, I'm in uupix which I would recommend for the ave investor. And the +- 10 % swings don't give me an ulcer. Why, because all the other funds provide the balance. If I only held 10 funds then the daily changes of 10% would be a concern. BTW only hold this fund in a tax free account. the drop to $29 a share and the ride to $44 in the past 2 months did not cause a sleepless night.
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Re: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet & Fund Concentration
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small potato
05-19-2008, 11:32 AM | Post #2519532
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Nagorak, It's interesting that you bring up the difference between the Schloss approach of a more diversified value investing, versus Buffett's concentrated style. And, I think it highlights Buffett's view (mentioned above by oildog) that the amount of diversification one has should roughly track the degree of lack of knowledge one has about one's investments. That is, all other things being equal, the less you know what you're getting into, the more you should gravitate toward broad diversification. From what I've read, Schloss was really just implementing a quantitative value approach, not unlike what many value index funds are based on today. Schloss owned shares in many companies because he knew next to nothing about any of them. If you were building a portfolio based only on the fact that companies in your portfolio were trading for less than two-thirds of book value, how many would you need to hold to feel comfortable? Also, all other things being equal, if you found 1000 companies all trading at roughly half of book value, why would you include some to the exclusion of others if all you really know about any of them is this one metric?
On the other hand, Buffett's preferred style of investing is to invest in a very small number of companies where he thinks he understands all the important quantitative and qualitative factors that will affect the long term economic condition and position of those companies. Given the increased thought about the economic prospects of a company, it doesn't seem unreasonable to put a large percentage of one's wealth into such an investment. Indeed, this seems like what most small business owners should be doing when they "invest" in such enterprises. "Putting it briefly, I think it is wrong to assume that concentration in
stock investment necessarily means better performance." What you wrote above is correct. However, I think the "value" in seeking out concentrated bets is not that it ensures better performance, but that it offers increased odds for outsized gains. This has nothing to do with personal tastes or predilections; it is simply a matter of probabilities, borne out in history by statistics. Yes, value investors can do well following a more diversified strategy, but the outliers in performance, both positive and negative, will be those with more concentrated investment portfolios.
'tato
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Re: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet & Fund Concentration
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pkcrafter
05-19-2008, 1:08 PM | Post #2519565
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kerryvan wrote: Okay, so I think this discussion is getting a
little off track. In any given asset class I'd own 1-3 funds. LC, MC,
SC. (total 6-9 funds depending on asset base) This investing method is not consistent with what you said about overlap. If you hold three funds in value and three in growth you have lots of overlap. In addition, holding another three in blend overlaps everything. There is no need to hold blend if you hold value and growth. Furthermore. Holding three funds in one class means that two are going to underperform the best one. If the goal of using active funds in to outperform, then just pick the best one. Holding nine funds in large cap almost insures you will have a closet index fund.
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Re: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet & Fund Concentration
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kerryvan
05-19-2008, 2:52 PM | Post #2519597
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You miss understood what I wrote, I'll try to make it more clear... I would own up to 3 large caps, up to 3 mid caps, and up to 3 small caps... I would look for minimal overlap, so one may be Large cap growth, midcap value, small cap growth.. My total number of funds for US is 6-9 total.. the rest of the discussion was stating the foreign breakdown.
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Re: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet & Fund Concentration
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Nagorak
05-20-2008, 1:09 AM | Post #2519765
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small potato:"Putting it briefly, I think it is wrong to assume that concentration in
stock investment necessarily means better performance." What you wrote above is correct. However, I think the "value" in seeking out concentrated bets is not that it ensures better performance, but that it offers increased odds for outsized gains. This has nothing to do with personal tastes or predilections; it is simply a matter of probabilities, borne out in history by statistics. Yes, value investors can do well following a more diversified strategy, but the outliers in performance, both positive and negative, will be those with more concentrated investment portfolios.
'tato
That is a fair point, and I agree. Personally I prefer a bit more concentrated approach, but not super concentration. My ideal mutual fund has about 40 holdings, as opposed to 100 or to 20. Anyway, you're right the more concentration the more chance to deviate both positively and negatively, so it cuts both ways.
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