I like this list of trading rules.  Click HERE.  Note n° 4. 

It's actually more of a guideline than a rule. - "Ghostbusters"

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Why was March 17 significant?  For 2008 it represents the:

• USD index low
• S&P 500 index low
• Gold price high
• 10-year Treasury rate low

Why was yesterday significant:  For 2008 it was the:

• WTIC price high
  
• ADRE Emerging Market index high
  
• Amex Steel index high
  
• DSX high
  
• US major city home price futures low
  

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Senator Clinton explains why cutting the gas tax is a good idea.  I didn't understand the middle part.

Quote of the day:

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, may pump oil a year earlier than expected from the Western Hemisphere's biggest find since 1976, increasing supply at a time of record prices. The field isn't as difficult to tap as predicted, lying no more than 7.1 kilometers (4.4 miles) beneath the ocean's surface, Petrobras Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said.

Tupi, located 250 kilometers off the Brazilian coast, is one of seven or eight prospects in that part of the Atlantic Ocean that Gabrielli said may be ``very, very, very large.''

Gabrielli declined to estimate how much oil may be trapped in the Carioca prospect, southwest of Tupi. Brazilian oil regulator Haroldo Lima said last month that Carioca may hold 33 billion barrels of oil, a figure he later attributed to a magazine article.

Excellant link.  Between our bear market rules, John Murphys asset class relationships, and the 20 trading rules, I won't be able to find my P C.  I hate to file all this good stuff away and never see it again..  LOL.

All indications are that we will have a rough open in NY this morning.  It is looking like my SLW was a good idea.

uh

Why didn't someone tell me that crude was going to spike like this?

I would have loaded up on OIH calls.

There are some interesting charts over at Intrade.  Click HERE.

• The "Chance of 2008 US Recession" trade has fallen from 75% to 29% in one month.

• Obama's chances for the nomination just popped up to 87% on good betting volume.  We can get 6-to-1 odds on Hillary with the British sports betters. 
  

WTIC just went over $122 - even though EURUSD fell below $1.55.  But that's old news.  Except the Hang Seng really hated it this morning.

Interesting charts.  Spitzer's potential indictment at 17 surprised me.  I had thought it would be higher, but after further thought, the price is probably about right.   I would be a seller of McCain sometime before the convention.

Stock futures are flat this morning indicating we may have a dull day before us.  Productivity numbers and new home sales are due out today.  All the pundits are focusing on housing, but productivity trends might be more important. 

uh

Upon further review, stock futures are now dropping and the bond market has opened on a downward tick.   Things might not be as dull as I first thought. 

Productivity rose 2.2% which should be good news, so something else must be bothering the markets.

uh

UH,

Productivity is up but the change appears to be a reduction in the denominator (hours worked)...

Perhaps Mr. Market views this as an indication that the employment market is softening further?

BytheNbrs

The FT's Authors speaks HERE about the upcoming impact of tightening credit.

To my dismay, Morgan Stanley agrees.  Read HERE.  Snippets:

Over the past week, better-than-expected economic US economic data and the disbursing of consumer tax rebates have buoyed hopes that the worst is over for the economy and recovery is coming.

We disagree.  In our view, the recent run of better data does not signal that recession risks are receding.  If anything, there is a renewed disconnect between market pricing and our view of the economy: We think the economic fallout and resulting downturn is only beginning.

But as we see it, those data mask a significant underlying deterioration in economic activity, and we expect the growth in Q1 to give way to a 2% contraction in Q2.  Domestic final sales declined in the first quarter for the first time in 17 years, reflecting weakness in both housing and business investment and tepid growth in consumer outlays.  Only inventory accumulation kept output growth in positive territory, and we suspect the stockbuilding was involuntary.

But as we see it, those data mask a significant underlying deterioration in economic activity, and we expect the growth in Q1 to give way to a 2% contraction in Q2.  Domestic final sales declined in the first quarter for the first time in 17 years, reflecting weakness in both housing and business investment and tepid growth in consumer outlays.  Only inventory accumulation kept output growth in positive territory, and we suspect the stockbuilding was involuntary.

As we see it, the wider credit spreads and reduced credit availability of the past few months is just starting to hit the economy.

After all, Mr. Market usually sniffs out changes in the economic landscape before economists and strategists do.  Nonetheless, our strategy team and we are sticking to our discipline and our calls.  For risky assets, the recent rallies imply that a worsening economy is now no longer in the price.

But the biggest risk for bullish investors now is that downside surprises in the economy and earnings prove that the recent upswing was a bear-market rally after all.

As posted last week, El-Erian agrees with this frankly bearish point of view.  If it were just the perma-bears, it wouldn't bother me.  Speaking yesterday to a Southern California friend whose Real Estate opinions I completely trust - he called the 25% dip that is now reality - he says, "More downside to come."

Should we imitate Senator Clinton and just tell the economists to go to Hell? 

Certain technical accomplishments have been encouraging.  Unfortunately, we have that pesky low volume problem, Banking Sector relative weakness, and the sluggish SC action.

A sure sign of a bear market is when everything goes down, regardless of asset class.  That seems to be what happened today.  While I don't have data on all of the commodities, the CRB index dropped back from it's current high.  The major stock indexs all went down as did interest rates.  Of course when interest rates go down, bonds go up.  The USD also climbed against a basket of currencies.  Most of my portfolio also went down, which is unusual because I usually have something that zigs when the others zag.   Perhaps another leg down has begun for the stock market, but I am at a loss about what has triggered it.  Just exhaustion perhaps.

uh