A Democrat must win either FL or OH to become President. Clinton is beating McCain in both. Obama is losing to McCain in both.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/florida.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ohio.html

Just watch these two states to see who will be president. I can already tell you it will be McCain since the left-left Dems and unified African American voting block gave Obama the Democratic Primary win. They threw away this election.

ML

Its amazing, isnt it?  In a year where the Repubs, by all forecasts, are supposed to be slaughtered, right now it looks like McCain will be elected. (STILL VERY EARLY).  Repubs everywhere are refusing to vote since the party has completely lost its way and, this Nov, they will send a dearly needed wake up call to the party to get its act together. 

What they need is another congressman or senator like Gingrich with the intellect, charisma, and backbone to bring about the needed change.  Believe it or not, the Dems dislike their congressmen even more but since the party has been hijacked by the far left, you wont read about it anywhere. 

Gov, Repubs will vote. They vote come hail or high water.

 It's the Dems who are in trouble big time with Obama at the top of the ticket. They may lose the Congressional seats they picked up in 2006. At least Ralph Nader will get a good laugh:

"If the Democrats can’t landslide the Republicans this year, they ought to just pack up, close down, and re-emerge in a different form."

Nader, 2/24/08

I wonder if that new form will be as centrist/moderate Democrats? You know-- the ones who win.    .............naaaah.

ML

Here is a good article from a Dem pollster (the guy supported Dean in '04 and has the gal to admit it too!).  He goes through the states that are in play and talks about some combinations that will allow Obama to win.

Salon.com article 

Also, i dont think the Repubs will gain any seats in congress.  In fact, the Dems could get to a veto proof margin, especially in the house.  Also, the repubs dont always vote.  Look at the three special elections that were recently held.  All were staunch republican territory but they lost because the Repubs are disenfranchised. 

Hi Gov,

When mentioning the traits of Mr. Gingrich, I believe you forgot moral rectitude.

But his ideas did help the Repubs gain control of Congress

I do agree with the intellect trait.

Thank God  and Greyhound,   ------   -----. 

Hard to argue with, ML. Blue Dog Dems traditionally do pretty well in the South. Since they were gerrymandered out, the Dems have been steadily moving further Left.

Between the stimulus money ramping up the economy (which I believe it will), Obama at the top, and the radicals in CA making same-sex marriage an election issue, the GOP may indeed pick up seats. That would have been laughable a few months ago. 

Interesting article.

I'm picking Obama to lose FL, OH, PA and NH.

ML

ML, I sure hope you are right.  I will say that I think your analysis has much merit.

Currently I have to think the race is relatively even - Obama the favorite to win the popular vote nationwide, but with McCain still with a good chance to pull out a win in electoral votes due to the state demographic factors.

But this is WAY too early, ML.  The election is not for another 5 1/2 months.  That is an ETERNITY.  In politics.  To consider just a few things that could change the dymamics:

1.   McCain could demonstrate some "senior moments" in the fall debates.

2.  Some more REAL dirt could come out on Obama.

3.  The economy could improve considerably before November.

4.  The economy could really tank before November.

5.  The international situation chould change in any number of ways.

I think Florida is probably a lock for McCain.  However, I would not be so sure about Ohio of I were a Republican strategist.  The GOP is REALLY weak this year, particularly up in the industrial states.  If Obama puts to rest some of the misgivings about his background (admittedly a challenge), turns in a good performance in the fall campaign, and the economy continues to slide ($4.50 per gallon gas, anyone?) I suspect the mid-atlantic and mid-western blue states that you think may be in play will stay safely Democratic, and Obama will stand a real shot in Ohio.

ML, as I said, I hope you are right.  I think that after four years of McCain, the international situation may be favorable enough that we could afford a liberal Democrat in the White House - at least less risk than most times in the past 50 yers or so.

But you will understand if I remain concerned.  Regards.

MWL.