A few extracts.
Management
believes that the full economic effect of the recent economic deterioration has
yet to fully impact real estate markets and, while economic conditions are
likely to weaken further, commercial real estate market fundamentals should
remain stable to slightly declining in the near term. Management believes that
the likelihood of ongoing negative pressures on markets remain high in the near
term. At the same time current commercial real estate fundamentals are, for the
most part, in solid shape, and therefore suggest a capacity to weather these
pressures. In particular, management believes that commercial real estate net
operating income will be bolstered in the near-term as leases are renewed at
current market rents that are sharply higher than rents in force when those
leases were signed several years ago. While the erosion in employment will
dilute the demand for space, the effects should be mitigated by the modest flow
of new construction due for delivery over the year ahead. In addition to
near-term macroeconomic conditions that impact the supply and demand for
commercial real estate, the performance of the Account can also be affected by
geopolitical risks, industry or sector slowdowns, and event risk affecting
individual properties, tenants, or geographies.
While management cannot predict
the exact nature or timing of such changes or the magnitude of their impact on
the Account, our experience has demonstrated that market fluctuations can and
will take place without advance notice, and any significant changes could have
a direct and meaningful impact on the returns of the Account. Please refer to
the section entitled “Item 1A. Risk Factors,” included in the Form 10-K, for a
more detailed description of the risks associated with an investment in the
Account.
Also the following:
With
slow growth or mild recession in the first half of 2008, followed by only a
weak rebound in the second half of the year, growth in tenant demand for
office, industrial, and retail space will likely slip, rent growth will likely
slow or flatten, and vacancy rates will probably inch up. The degree of
commercial real estate market weakening will be mitigated by the generally
balanced conditions that currently prevail in many if not most metro area
markets. In addition, the credit market constraints now in play, combined with
the weaker demand outlook, will likely constrain new commercial real estate
construction activity into 2009. Constrained additions to supply along with the
expected strengthening in economic growth will set the stage for a repair of
fundamentals in 2009.
Commercial
real estate pricing in the near term will be largely determined by a
combination of factors including the level and uncertainty associated with
Treasury rates, inflation, and the general pricing of risk across all asset
types. Assuming that the period of economic weakness is short-lived, Treasury
rates should achieve a cycle low in the first alf of the
year and then slowly rebound as the economy recovers, with transitory
volatility as inflation expectations ebb and flow. Low Treasury rates should
cushion the impact of wider cap rate spreads which, for commercial real estate,
are approaching their long-term norms. Additionally, pricing pressures have so
far been concentrated on properties that are in less attractive locations or
have less attractive investment characteristics. Management believes that such
distinctions will continue in light of the ongoing strong investor demand for
the most attractive properties. Nonetheless, in light of less available and
more expensive commercial mortgage debt, it is possible that the number of
investors pursuing commercial real estate will be smaller in 2008 than in prior
years, contributing to some easing of pricing pressure across the quality
spectrum. There is some evidence of this in the reduction in transaction volume
in recent months relative to volumes in the prior three years. At the same
time, management believes the quality of commercial mortgage credit is holding
up well; delinquency rates remain very low and distressed sales of commercial
property are not, at this point, prevalent.
Management
believes that the Account’s property investments are diversified by both sector
and geographic location, which will allow it to weather a continued slowdown of
economic and real estate market conditions. The Account will continue to
balance these fundamentals against pricing pressures when executing its core
investment strategy. However, market conditions affecting real estate
investments at any given time cannot be predicted, and any downturn in one or a
number of the markets in which the Account invests could significantly and
adversely impact the Account’s returns.
Under "Performance" this:
After
several years of increasing investor demand for commercial real estate and
historic price increases, transaction activity almost came to a halt and price
appreciation leveled off or slightly declined in some markets during the
quarter. Individual property investment value increases have become smaller and
the number experiencing declines in values increased, as is evidenced by the
Net Realized and Unrealized Gains and Losses on Investments and Mortgage Loans
Payable. Real estate is an investment which should be considered from a long
term perspective. The Account’s annualized total returns (after expenses) over
the past one, three, five and 10 year periods ended March 31, 2008 were 10.16%,
13.63%, 12.19% and 9.65%, respectively. As of March 31, 2008, the Account’s
annualized total return since inception was 9.46%.
Ray