AIG? Has it bottomed?
judyken 
05-10-2008, 2:46 PM | Post #2516525 |  8 Replies

I had meant to make a substantial commitment this past week, but never got to it.  The news came out and the stock dropped about 18%.  Barrons has an article this week about it and the probability that it is over doing the writedowns now and will have to write up in the future.(additional profits)  Although insurance is having a competitive time of things right now, this too will pass. (Berkshire Hathaway too)

Am i too early or is now a good time to make that commitment?   Ken

8 Replies
Re: AIG? Has it bottomed?
05-10-2008, 3:41 PM | Post #2516539
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FWIW, I'd give large institutional investors time to digest the news, possible rating changes, etc that might spur large liquidations in their periodic investment committee meetings.  This one is probably not going to get away from you on the upside.

Dick

Re: AIG? Has it bottomed?
05-11-2008, 8:14 AM | Post #2516674
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Not sure I trust their management. They should have seen this coming months ago, but gave no warnings. If they didn't see it coming, they're not fit to be in management.

OTOH, it's a stock you could possibly make money with, if you guess right. 

Re: AIG? Has it bottomed?
05-11-2008, 9:48 AM | Post #2516702
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I doubt that it has bottomed just yet.  The intraday price and volume chart for friday is a gap and run pattern.  The price should continue to drop next week.  At any rate, unless you are a day trader, you probably should let a bottom build before making a commitment to them.

uh 

Re: AIG? Has it bottomed?
05-11-2008, 12:37 PM | Post #2516773
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If you're not confident to own a stock for a long term perspective then don't try to own it for even ten minutes.

If you're worried that the stock has dropped about 18%, then you are by no means committed to own the stock...then drop AIG.

However, if you believe that you have made a significant consideration of the value underlying this company before you made a decision to purchase the shares, then you should not worry about the humps that this company has gone through. It is just a minor setback.

Your fellow investors are here only to share their insights...the decision is still yours to make...

Happy Investing!

May 12 New York Times article
05-13-2008, 5:06 AM | Post #2517290
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The New York Times 

May 12, 2008
Former CEO asks AIG to postpone annual meeting

NEW YORK (AP) -- Maurice R. Greenberg, the former chief executive and largest individual shareholder of AIG, says the insurer is ''in crisis'' and urged it to postpone its annual meeting in the wake of its massive first-quarter loss, according to regulatory filing Monday.

In a letter to American International Group Inc.'s board dated Sunday, Greenberg said he and other top shareholders are deeply concerned ''about the persistent and seemingly endless destruction of value at AIG.'' He said the leadership of the world's largest insurer has also lost credibility with the investment community.

''AIG is in crisis,'' Greenberg wrote.

''The company's problems are more than financial and extend far beyond its subprime credit exposure or approach to capital management,'' he said in the letter. ''Core businesses are also deteriorating.''

AIG spokesman Chris Winans said the board received Greenberg's letter Monday morning but sees no need to postpone the annual meeting, which is scheduled for Wednesday.

AIG said Friday it lost $7.81 billion, or $3.09 per share, in the first quarter. The company also announced plans to raise $7.5 billion in an offering of common stock and equity units and another $5 billion through high equity fixed-income securities to shore up its capital base.

AIG late Monday said it increased the $7.5 billion offering to $11.9 billion.

The company priced about 171 million shares of common stock at $38 per share, for a total of $6.5 billion. It also said it would sell 72 million equity units for $5.4 billion. The equity units consist of subordinated debt securities and contracts that require the holders to purchase AIG stock later.

Greenberg said New York-based AIG has not explained why it chose to raise funds in the capital markets rather than pursuing other options, such as divesting noncore assets or seeking other sources of funding.

''Shareholders deserve to know how this decision was reached and what other alternatives were considered and evaluated,'' Greenberg wrote. He also questioned AIG's decision to increase its dividend by 10 percent, to 22 cents per share.

AIG shares dropped $1.91, or 4.7 percent, Monday to close at $38.37, their lowest point since October 1998, following a downgrade from Goldman Sachs. Shares slipped another 14 cents in after-hours electronic trading.

Greenberg was forced out of the company in 2005, when then-New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer accused him of fraudulent accounting.


Re: May 12 New York Times article
05-13-2008, 7:17 PM | Post #2517527
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Thanks for the article.  I'd like to see Greenberg back at the helm.  You can maybe justify why the current head is doing what he is; he is in panic mode.  What disturbs me is the board.  Are they nothing but rubber stamps?

Greenberg was "force out" by Spitzer.  He decded to fight the charges as being untrue.   He was never proved guilty of anything and he is the one who created the company in the first place.  Selling stock while it is at the lowest price in a decade is NOT a smart move.  Greenberg makes very good points and the board wwon't respond, why?  Ken

Re: May 12 New York Times article
05-13-2008, 7:35 PM | Post #2517533
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Don't overlook the fact that SOMEBODY thought it was wise to sell AIG equity at the lowest price in a decade --- AIG!  Reportedly about $17 billion worth in various forms.  And if housing prices and related loans/security prices continue to drop, you can be assured they'll be back with more.  We are nowhere near the end of this episode. 
Re: May 12 New York Times article
05-13-2008, 9:15 PM | Post #2517582
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I keep buying 10 shares at a time, including yesterday. I now own 30 shares @ an average NAV of $41.58 per shr. Per the Barron's art. I plan to keep buying on 6/12/08 or after. The truth is NOBODY knows where the bottom is on AIG including me. Best regards, Don