So who is he, well you could read the link but he is the Harvard  economist  who heads the group that officially determines if a  recession  has/is occurring. It should be needless to say that he is extremely well respected.  Here is the link .  The following is a quote from it about the  possibility of a recession.

The odds are that the U.S. will slip into a recession, but the depth of the economic downturn will hinge on where housing prices go and the level of mortgage defaults, said Martin Feldstein, a Harvard University professor and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In an interview on CNBC, Feldstein said the chances of a recession have decreased in the past month, but "the odds are we will slide into a recession."

"In the last month, I would say (the case for a recession) has been decreasing, but if you compare where the economy was at the end of March...there's no question, the economy is down by just about every measure."

Although the economy grew slightly in the first quarter, according to the latest government data, some economists think the US is already in a recession.

Feldstein's comments gave weight to the view that while the US may be suffering a downturn, it may not be be as bad as many feared, partly because the Federal Reserve has cut rates so aggressively.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, which Feldstein heads, is considered the official arbiter of whether the economy is in a recession. Although a recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the bureau does not use the gross domestic product, or GDP, in determining a recession and usually makes the call after the recession is over.

Feldstein said it's still possible that the economy will flatten out in the next few quarters, but he remains worried that home prices will spiral downward, falling much more than the prices need to in order to correct the housing market. If this causes a big increase in the number of defaults, and ultimately in foreclosures, the economy could be pushed into "a significant recession."

 Ray

I'm not sure why there is such a controversy about whether or not we are in recession, when in fact, recession is always part of the economic cycle. Sooner or later, we will come into one, just like bear markets. Call it a recession, an economic slowdown, or just a bad year for business, it is something to be expected. I'm only 50, but I can recall more recessions than I care to. I think it is probably because we are in an election year and everyone is wanting to treat the economic slowdown like it is some special phenomenom, when in fact we were in a recession earlier in this decade. Yet, everybody seems to have forgotten about that, and some are acting like we are headed for a economic apocalypse.  But, I can recall what seem like worse situations.

Seems it was just over five years ago, the nation was poised to launch a disastrous war, the space shuttle had disentigrated upon re-entry, the SARS epidemic threatened Asia - and Toronto (which was a bit too close to home), stocks were sliding downhill again (just as we thought the bear market was over) and yes, the economy was looking bad. The nation was in a funk. Yet, the economy eventually flourished, the stock market rallied again and we enjoyed a 4-year bull market run, while unemployment dropped below 5% again and a lot of people find themselves in a home for the first time (and maybe the last time). But, a lot of people will want to point to the meltdown in the housing market like its an economic castastrophe without precedent. Except there is a precedent - the collapse of real estate and the S&L meltdown of the late 80's. I'm personally convinced that crisis was even worse, because it was more widespread, and the effects on my local economy were obvious for years afterwards. And yes, it took years for the housing market to upright itself. Yet, the stock market offered nice returns from '91-'93, and hit a bump in '94 (almost breaking even).

I wouldn't try and call the outcome of our current economic problems at this point. I think we'll get our answers soon enough, and I think a lot of the conclusions that have been made by others will prove to be premature. As always, thing can get better or they can get worse. Which is to say, I think we are in for more of the same.

Kkatmanndu,

Thank you for your post; it is very well done. Much of the recent economic data - last employment report, manufacturing output and service sector output - have indeed indicated that the economy is doing considerably better than most pundits (and economists) have been proclaiming. The outlook is cloudy but it certainly is not as bad as the press has been reporting. Admittedly it is not good and there are regions, sectors and categories of the population that have been hard hit but the overall economy is once again showing surprising durability. I don't see much attention paid to this!

Ray