Option Investing
csmitty 
10-07-2007, 5:09 AM | Post #2445713 |  8 Replies
MS Community,

I am a seasoned stock investor who has used MS guidance for the past 5 years and have done very well with my portfolio.   I always make my own picks and tune out all noise on the market.  (just too much hype)  I am not a pro, but a manager at a Dow 30 firm that makes things, thats likes to invest for my retirement when I can learn how to hit the ball straight.  Am at about a 300 level understanding of the markets have graduated to options.  Have made a couple of option investments recently to increase my learning and so far have made some money. But, know I have much to learn.

Would like to get some buzz going on LEAPS.  Seems to me to be the only sensible way to invest options.  Would appreciate someone shooting holes in my options approach since I know just enough to be dangerous.  Here's my thinking...

1.  Only buy LEAPs to give Mr. Market time to sort its fickle self out.  Buy Time.
2.  Only buy LEAPs on stocks that I think are extremely under-valued (Calls) or over-valued(Puts) so i can get some Beta leverage.
3.  Only buy companies I know and would buy the underlying asset if great a dividend play with captial gain upside.  Plus, mgnt I know and trust. For me, usually wide-moat value guys.
4.  Be ready to sell when my profit threshold has been reached.  Don't swing for centerfield fence. I recently sold BAC LEAPs that I held for less than 2 weeks because my 15% gain threshhold had been reached.

Know I need to learn more.  

Would love to hear from like-minded investor.

Best, csmitty




8 Replies
Re: Option Investing
10-07-2007, 12:38 PM | Post #2445815
Hide

Congratulations on being a successful investor. I would begin slowly and with a limited amount of money for options. Your other strategies seem to be doing well for you, so maybe those other strategies are better for you. But it is interesting to deal with options.

In your criteria, I did not see your preference for in-the-money or out-of-the money LEAPS. What are you buying? My preference is for in-the-money LEAPS for most of my positions.

I like your emphasis on fundamentals. That is important.

You may want to re-examine your criteria on when to take profits or losses. A threshold of 15% may find you trading excessively. Options can gain or lose 25% or more in relatively short time periods. The threshold is up to you, based on your risk tolerance. If I had traded out of a position every time it took a 15% loss, I would have given up many good winning positions. I look at the fundamentals and total market conditions as well. If I have a lot of time left and I think the drop is a temporary correction and the stock fundamentals are still sound, I will stick with the position. Following this strategy has seen my 20% paper losses reverse to 50% actual gains.

I generally want to see 50% gains in my option positions before selling them early. But I will let them ride if I think there is more.  For example, I just exited a position with over a year left to go because I had over a 100% gain on the initial investment and stock seemed a little toppy. I know that sounds like a lot, but it only was $1100 going to $2400. So in total percentage of my portfolio, it is a small amount, but still a good trade for the amount invested. Even with the high percentage gain, I still keep options as a small part of my portfolio due to the risk.

You will just have to work that question for yourself.

Steve

 

Leaps are for stock pickers
10-07-2007, 1:29 PM | Post #2445832
Hide

Smitty,

You appear to be a good stock picker, but there is some indication you're a trader. To trade LEAPS successfully, imo, you need to be both.

First, setup a spreadsheet where you can compare investment opportunities and risks. Mine is setup to show the stock price, the strike and option price as well as the historical and implied volatities, open interest, estimated value of the option (from Value Line Options), the delta, theta and open interest. From these inputs, Excel automatically calculates the percentage change in the stock required to reach the stock break even point. It calculates the option price as a percent of the stock price and the strike price.

I also enter the percentage drop in the price of the underlying stock that I would sell the stock at.  Excel calculates my stop loss prices for the option and for the stock and the estimated loss on the option if I let the stock drop x% before selling out. Typically a 7% drop in the stock price will produce the equivalent of a 50% drop in the option price. In other words, I'm using LEAPS leverage my capital. If I'm willing to take a 7% or 8% or 10% drop in the price of the stock when I just buy the stock, I can take the same dollar amount in the options investment. I seldom take a 50% drop in my options investment speculation, by the way (btw). As most here know, programming Excel is basic algebra and math.

All of this is on one row in the spreadsheet for each potential trade. When I see caution signals, I use a yellow fill; when IV<HV i use green fill over the IV data; when HV>IV, I use red fill to warn me that the option is over priced. If a stock has to rise 40% or 50% to make the LEAP break even, I fill the percentage change box with red.

I use a row under the data row for notes, including the date of my calculation. I'll note whether the charts are positive or negative. I don't buy  call leaps on declining stocks. I Wait for them to bottom.

Yesterday, for example, I looked at several good possibilities that looked promising based on fundamentals and options prices. But when I looked at the charts, I put those trades on my watch list. I found one or two that I might do tomorrow.

The big problem I'm finding with the M* 5* stocks is that quite a few aren't traded on the options market or there are no active LEAPS for them. Also, 5* stocks often are still in the dumps, and you have to wait for them to show that they're on their way up before buying them. Otherwise, you are likely to be throwing good money after dead money. I"d rather pay more for options on a bullish stock than for options on a stock that hasn't bottomed. 

I agree with Steve that your profit objectives for LEAPS are too low. This is because you can see a 10% to 20% loss over night, and you have to make enough to more than cover those losses. I have a 113% gain on a LEAP that I bought last Dec. The stock is up 35% and still surging. I have an 8% loss on a leap I bought a couple of weeks ago. The stock is down 1% or 2%. And I have a 5% gain on a leap I bought a couple of weeks ago, and the stock is practically unchanged.

If you buy LEAPs, you should sell them six months before expiration to minimize losses due to decays in time premiums. Thus, I will sell my Jan 2010 LEAPS no later than July 1, 2010, and probably sooner 

Keep LEAPS positions small; diversify
10-07-2007, 1:43 PM | Post #2445838
Hide

Based on my experiences with LEAPS, I've decided small positions and more stocks are better than betting everything on a few great ideas. This requires more work, but I think it will minimize risks and losses and maximize profits.

What I'm doing is putting a small amount of money relative to the funds I want to put into LEAPS into each trade. I try to do 2 to four new trades each month so that I will have up to 30 positions at any given time. I figure I can make good money if half of the trades work out and I minimize my losses and let my profits run. I limit my losses to 3% to 8% of the value of the underlying stock, depending on the stock and market conditions. And I let profits run as long as the technicals look good. If the technicals go negative on a stock, I sell the LEAPS.
 

Re: Leaps are for stock pickers
10-10-2007, 6:23 PM | Post #2446933
Hide
Johnson381 
Excellent advise. Just what I was looking for.  I will set up the Excel sheet as you described and begin to get some calcs and history going.  Also, agree that I am setting gain threshold too low.  Keep me posted on any other tips you may have (not looking for buys, but rather strategies).

I agree.  Sell options long before they are useless.  I guessed wrong on Google puts and sold them about 4 months in...good thing I did as this could have been a wreck.

Keep the chat alive.

Best,
csmitty




Re: Leaps are for stock pickers
11-27-2007, 2:56 AM | Post #2459766
Hide
I am new to learning about options, so bear with me here. Right now I am thinking AAPL is over priced and will be back to <$130 within a year. Currently at 15.10 From my limited understanding, I would look to buy AAPL puts for Jan-09. Do I need to cover them? Now, how do I figure out my return, that is if I am successful! thanks
Re: Leaps are for stock pickers
12-07-2007, 10:54 AM | Post #2462694
Hide

This is a nice way to juice your portfolio.  You probably know most of what I'm about to say, since you have clearly made a study of options and are a thoughtful trader.  But for the benefit of other readers, I'll write this anyway.

There is something to be careful about, and that is volatility changes (vega risk).  The prices of LEAPs are greatly affected by volatility.  Think of the LEAPS as akin to a bond.  A long-term bond's price will be affected more by interest rates than a short-term bond's price, and it is the same way with LEAPs versus nearer-month options. 

In addition, volatility itself fluctuates rapidly, so that high volatility tends to precede lower volatility, while low volatility begets high volatility.  For this reason, purchasing LEAPs calls or puts during periods of low volatility is safer than during high periods of volatility.  For example, if you purchase a call, it is possible that if the underlying rises while volatility falls, the LEAPs may stay the same or even lose value, even though you were correct about the stock. 

Of course, risk and reward are always inversely proportional, so that in exchange for the added safety of purchasing during periods of low vol, you may have to accept lower returns or wait longer for your returns to materialize. 

So this strategy is a fine one, but this may not be the best time to put a lot of capital into it.  Maybe watch the VIX daily, and keep most of your powder dry.  Vol could drop pretty quickly if the market gets mired in a trading range, which looks like a possibility for the near future.  Then you can jump in with both feet. 

Good luck.

 Mary

Re: Leaps are for stock pickers
01-04-2008, 5:50 AM | Post #2472386
Hide
For all you options gurus. Do you guys prefer ITM or OTM? Why? Thanks.
Re: Leaps are for stock pickers
01-09-2008, 8:48 AM | Post #2474356
Hide

Since you asked jobowoo, I favor buying moderately ITM LEAPS. ITM options are more expensive but they tend to react better to the underlying stock and contain less time premium. The risk is that the stock declines and you lose intrinsic value, but the same goes for the stock itself.

You can get a bigger bang for your buck with OTM options, but I never buy these unless I can point to some catalyst that can vault the stock higher. One example of such a play would be M* recommendation on Mankind (MNKD) which is waiting approval for their drug this year. It is a win or lose proposition, so it is higher stakes. With conservative, well established companies in normal times, I always go with ITM options instead.

JMHO

Steve