VTSMX closed Friday, 10/10/08 @ $21.85, down $8.61 or -28.27% since 9/5/08 and down -38.59% year to date and -38.85% since inception @ $35.73 on 8/27/07

 

Ted.........$6823.68/$9206.31, down $2387.63 or -25.88% and down -27.28% & -31.76% respectively year to date and since inception

Dry.........$6815.91/$9505.29, down $2689.38 or -28.29% and down -29.54% & -31.84% respectively year to date and since inception

Flakey.....$6518.25/$8567.58, down $2049.33 or -23.92% and down -33.78% & -34.82% respectively year to date and since inception

Roger......$5853.72/$9011.99, down $3158.27 or - 35.05% and down -39.29% & minus 41.46% respectively year to date and since inception

Santa......$5027.75/$6963.09, down $1935.34 or -27.29% and down -44.96% & -49.72% respectively year to date and since inception

Munchie..$4034.39/$6760.24, down $2725.85 or -40.32% and down -58.14% & -59.66% respectively year to date and since inception

 

VTSMX down -41.64% since inception @ $37.44 on 11/1/07

FGHVX....$6145.40/$8220.23, down $2074.83 or -25.24% and down -36.21% & -38.55% respectively year to date and since inception

MSTSX....$1639.14/$3360.50, down $1721.36 or -51.22% and down -78.99% & -83.61% respectively year to date and since inception

 

WOW!  What an awful ride this has been and I fear the worst may be far from over.  I see a five or six thousand DOW a real possibility over the next year or two.  And government intervention is very likely to continue though in what form(s) and to what degree remains unclear at least till after November 4th.  The only silver lining about this catastrophe MAY be that it will elect Obama and the democrats with a substantial mandate to govern.  It's apparent to me that McCain is fairly clueless about what to do and Obama is not a whole lot better despite his more consistent statements about his intentions for righting our economic ship of state. 

The problem(s) with that is Obama may not have the answer(s) with HIS economic plan and/or it may be too late for even the best laid plans of Bambi's men to be effective in averting further calamity.  Whoever prevails next month and whatever they do it had better be timely and effective for if it isn't then despite all the naysaying we really could be headed for a reprise of the Great Depression of the last century with even the possibility of global military conflict, the difference this time being that we now see several nations armed to their nuclear teeth ready and willing to deploy these weapons if necessary either in retaliation to an attack or in preemption to seize natural resources or deter perceived potential aggressors.

I hope everyone past the age of fifty-five is either in cash or quickly heading there and that they are not buried in consumer debt or upside down on mortgage or car loans for if they ARE then they might have to get used to the idea of dumpster dives and shopping for Alpo on sale for dinner.  Jeeze, if things get too much worse this may happen to all of us, God forbid.

Paraphrasing Tiny Tim from Dickens' "Christmas Carol": 'God help us everyone!'

Have a nice Sunday despite all of this, guys.

Peace and love,

Flakey

 

 

How ironic we started this contest on almost exactly the S&P's peak. What a difference a year makes. Well, Flakey, good work as always and again, good to have you back.

I don't share your pessimism. I believe we're close to a bottom. And I'm almost all in having bought more in the last two weeks than I have in the last three years. Only 7% cash now. Bot XOM, CSCO, WMFI. Now more than 20% XOM. If it continues down I will invest the rest of my cash in it.

And I'd surely prefer to be wrong on my call and that you'd be correct on yours, you'd better believe THAT!

For young folks with a very long time horizon these are great days indeed.  And for older folks who don't need income or money from their portfolios to fund retirement this is also a great environment to scoop up bargains.  I compliment your usual practice of buying quality companies, Ted.  My only quibble with your strategy is that you're trying to pick a bottom; I believe it's safer to dollar cost average into the market especially in times like these.

Good luck!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Well, Flakey, and thanks for the comments, but I learned a long time ago I couldn't pick bottoms. No, I started buying XOM at 74.50, bot again at 64 and again at 57 (64 and 57 on the same day, Friday). Hardly much confidence in my bottom picking. I do believe XOM is a bargain, long haul, less than 80.

VTSMX closed Friday, 10/17/08 @ $22.75, up $0.90 or +4.12% for the week but down minus 36.06% and -36.33% respectively for year to date and since inception @ $35.73 on 8/27/07

 

Dry.........$7171.49/$6815.91, up $355.58 or +5.22% for the week but down -25.86% and -28.29% respectively for the year to date and since inception

Ted.........$7058.15/$6823.68, up $234.47 or +3.44% for the week but down --24.79% and -29.42% respectively for the year to date and since inception

Flakey.....$6668.95/$6518.75, up $150.20 or +2.30% for the week but down --32.25% and -33.31% respectively for the year to date and since inception

Roger......$6250.07/$5853.72, up $396.35 or +6.77% for the week but down -35.18% and -37.50% respectively for the year to date and since inception

Santa.......$5182.32/$5027.75, up $154.57 or +3.07% for the week but down -43.27% and -48.18% respectively for the year to date and since inception

Munchie....$4129.23/$4034.39, up $94.84 or +2.35% for the week but down -57.16% and -58.71% respectively for the year to date and since inception

 

VTSMX down -39.24% since inception @ $37.44 on 11/1/07

FGHVX......$6376.66/$6145.40, up $231.26 or +3.76% for the week but down -33.81% and -36.23% respectively for the year to date and since inception

MSTSX......$1831.38/$1639.14, up $192.24 or +11.73% for the week but down -76.53% and -82.69% respectively for the year to date and since inception

 

Kudos to Munchie, Roger and Dry for beating the market to the upside this week.  Don't let this dead cat bounce fool you, guys, as we have a looong way to go before we see daylight at the end of this tunnel.  The housing market continues to suffer generational losses and things will get only worse next spring when millions of sub prime mnortgages reset to higher rates which will precipitate a new round of foreclosures.  Job losses and unemployment claims remain high and retailers are looking forward to their worst holiday season in nearly a generation.  And predictably enough domestic auto sales are in deep freeze while the manufacturers continue plant closings.  Any prospective relief measures for our ailing economy from the government will have to await the changing of the guard in many congressional seats after November 4th.  And as in life there are no guarantees.

Have a great weekend, guys.

Peace and love,

Flakey

snowflake:

VTSMX closed Friday, 10/10/08 @ $21.85, down $8.61 or -28.27% since 9/5/08 and down -38.59% year to date and -38.85% since inception @ $35.73 on 8/27/07

 

Ted.........$6823.68/$9206.31, down $2387.63 or -25.88% and down -27.28% & -31.76% respectively year to date and since inception

Dry.........$6815.91/$9505.29, down $2689.38 or -28.29% and down -29.54% & -31.84% respectively year to date and since inception

Flakey.....$6518.25/$8567.58, down $2049.33 or -23.92% and down -33.78% & -34.82% respectively year to date and since inception

Roger......$5853.72/$9011.99, down $3158.27 or - 35.05% and down -39.29% & minus 41.46% respectively year to date and since inception

Santa......$5027.75/$6963.09, down $1935.34 or -27.29% and down -44.96% & -49.72% respectively year to date and since inception

Munchie..$4034.39/$6760.24, down $2725.85 or -40.32% and down -58.14% & -59.66% respectively year to date and since inception

 

VTSMX down -41.64% since inception @ $37.44 on 11/1/07

FGHVX....$6145.40/$8220.23, down $2074.83 or -25.24% and down -36.21% & -38.55% respectively year to date and since inception

MSTSX....$1639.14/$3360.50, down $1721.36 or -51.22% and down -78.99% & -83.61% respectively year to date and since inception

 

WOW!  What an awful ride this has been and I fear the worst may be far from over.  I see a five or six thousand DOW a real possibility over the next year or two.  And government intervention is very likely to continue though in what form(s) and to what degree remains unclear at least till after November 4th.  The only silver lining about this catastrophe MAY be that it will elect Obama and the democrats with a substantial mandate to govern.  It's apparent to me that McCain is fairly clueless about what to do and Obama is not a whole lot better despite his more consistent statements about his intentions for righting our economic ship of state. 

The problem(s) with that is Obama may not have the answer(s) with HIS economic plan and/or it may be too late for even the best laid plans of Bambi's men to be effective in averting further calamity.  Whoever prevails next month and whatever they do it had better be timely and effective for if it isn't then despite all the naysaying we really could be headed for a reprise of the Great Depression of the last century with even the possibility of global military conflict, the difference this time being that we now see several nations armed to their nuclear teeth ready and willing to deploy these weapons if necessary either in retaliation to an attack or in preemption to seize natural resources or deter perceived potential aggressors.

I hope everyone past the age of fifty-five is either in cash or quickly heading there and that they are not buried in consumer debt or upside down on mortgage or car loans for if they ARE then they might have to get used to the idea of dumpster dives and shopping for Alpo on sale for dinner.  Jeeze, if things get too much worse this may happen to all of us, God forbid.

Paraphrasing Tiny Tim from Dickens' "Christmas Carol": 'God help us everyone!'

Have a nice Sunday despite all of this, guys.

Peace and love,

Flakey

 

 

 I see a five or six thousand DOW a real possibility over the next year or two

I hope you are wrong BUT if the retest of the 2002 -2003 lows does not hold we could get to 5000 in a hurry.

Thanks for all the work

we as a group sure pick a bad time to lump in for a buy and hold stock contest! 

Santa Cruz:

 I see a five or six thousand DOW a real possibility over the next year or two

I hope you are wrong BUT if the retest of the 2002 -2003 lows does not hold we could get to 5000 in a hurry.

Thanks for all the work

we as a group sure pick a bad time to lump in for a buy and hold stock contest! 

LOL Almost exactly at the S&P peak.

However, I think you can buy and sell some, as long as you don't overwork Flakey. At least, I don't remember him saying we couldn't. 

VTSMX closed Friday, 10/24/08 @ $21.80, down $0.95 or -4.18% for the week and down -38.73% and -38.99% respectively for the year and since inception @ $35.73 on 8/27/07

 

Ted.........$6,492.40/$7,058.15, down $565.75 or -8.02% for the week and down -30.81% and -35.08% respectively for the year and since inception

Flakey.....$6,221.96/$6,668.95, down $446.99 or -6.70% for the week and down -36.79% and -37.78% respectively for the year and since inception

Dry..........$6,193.90/7,171.49, down $977.59 or -13.63% for the week and down -35.97% and -38.06% respectively for the year and since inception

Roger.......$5,614.38/$6,250.07, down $635.69 or -10.17% for the week and down -41.78% and -43.86% respectively for the year and since inception

Santa.......$4,558.34/$5,182.32, down $623.98 or -12.04% for the week and down -50.10% and -54.42% respectively for the year and since inception

Munchie....$3,448.09/$4,129.73, down $681.64 or -16.51% for the week and down -64.23% and -65.52% respectively for the year and since inception

 

VTSMX down -41.77% since inception @ $37.44 on 11/1/07

FGHVX......$5,912.48/$6,376.66, down $464.18 or -7.28% for the week and down -33.81% and -40.88% respectively for the year and since inception

MSTSX......$1,551.59/$1,831.38, down $279.79 or -15.28% for the week and down -80.12% and 84.48% respectively for the year and since inception

 

To a man we all miserably underperformed Mr. Market to the downside this week, the first time this has ever occurred if memory serves me correctly.  Assuming our results to date mirror the average investor's performance this indicates catastrophic losses in folks' retirement funding and pressages serious negative economic, social and political consequences for the future of our country. 

The Boomers are children of the protests of the 1960s and they most certainly will not go quietly into that good night without scratching, kicking and screaming for whatever financial relief or security to be found within the economic constraints our nation faces as a result of tripartisan mismanagement of the national economy on the part of the business community, the government and both political parties since the Viet Nam era.

What will happen is difficult to predict with any certainty.  Are we headed for bread lines, millions of homeless seniors and violent social revolution leading to authoritarian rule?  This is not the America of the 1930s; we are much more diverse, urban and unfortunately much better armed without the religious and cultural constraints of our grandfathers.  Things could get very ugly very quickly indeed.  

Or will we somehow find a way out of this looming catastrophe?  I think our salvation lies in strong, wise leadership, lowered expectations and a shared sense of purpose and sacrifice to get through the difficult years ahead.  I'm still at least faintly optimistic.  I have to be for to consider alternative outcomes is too painful to contemplate.  But we'd better get a move on before events overtake us as the clock is ticking and in demograpic terms time is very short to make the moves we need to make.

Have a great Sunday, guys.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Most of us weren't protesters, Flakey. Many were drafted, served their country, got an education and got jobs. The protesters were a small minority of the Boomers.

We're not as bad as we think we are.