Greetings To All:

The poster who is known as Flakey has publicly insulted the Munchkin Man's stock picking ability on another forum.

But that's okay.

The Munchkin Man's stock picks have not exactly set the world on fire lately.

The Munchkin Man has forgiven Mr. Flakey for his transgression.

At the same time..............

The Munchkin Man herewith challenges Mr. Flakey to a duel.

This is a friendly duel.

This is a stock picking duel.

Here are the rules:

The Munchkin Man will pick 5 stocks.

Mr. Flakey will pick 5 stocks.

The contestant whose 5-stock portfolio shows the greater percent gain by the close of the last stock trading day of 2007 will be declared the winner.

The contest commences on the date of Monday, August 27, 2007.

Here are the Munchkin Man's picks:
__________________________________

ASXSF.OB
Closing Price Of August 24, 2007:
$0.78 Per Share

CXZ
Closing Price Of August 24, 2007:
$1.39 Per Share

DPDW.OB
Closing Price Of August 24, 2007:
$0.7650 Per Share

LEXEF.PK
Closing Price Of August 24, 2007:
$0.6721

TDCP.OB
Closing Price Of August 24, 2007:
$0.44 Per Share
_______________________________________

Mr. Flakey, it is now your turn.

May the best man win.

In the event that Mr. Flakey declines the Munchkin Man's challenge, the Munchkin Man will gladly accept a substitute challenger who is willing to take his place.

May the best man win.

Good luck to all.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

#2051 of Off Topic/General Chat forum, Munchie.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

You don't have enough balls to duel Flakey. He is the man.

Vince

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Hello Munchkin Man, I hope all is well with you.
I'll fill in if that's ok.

DRAD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.06

MNKD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$9.22

ZGEN
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$12.19

ICO
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.98

RDWR
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$13.38

All the best,
Nick Drake

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I hope I haven't disappointed you or destroyed your faith in my integrity or stock picking methodology but I turned Munchie down for some very good reasons.

First, his rules specified a very small number of stocks, namely five, which makes it impossible to build a diversified portfolio which is what the vast majority of prudent, risk averse investors should and would want to do. I know this is an alien concept to Munchie's investment style but a diversified portfolio is the only vehicle which truly levels the playing field by eliminating sector similarity and emphasizes stock picking skill across the entire stock market instead of playing on sector volatility which can occur at any point in market history.

Second, his time frame is way too short, four months, which amounts to a pimple on an elephant's butt in terms of stock market history and takes no account of Mr. Market's 'peaks and valleys' which are an inevitable part of the real world environment of investing. In this context a skilled stock picker must be able to capitalize on the market's crests and withstand the vagaries of the market's inevitable declines while achieving excellent risk-adjusted returns through it all. My suggestion was trhat the time frame should be three to five YEARS and not just three or four months.

Third, and most importantly, Munchie's investment style pays little or no heed to the safety or financial viability of the companies he'd choose. Again this is something the vast majority or prudent, risk averse investors should or would want to take into account.

The result at least to my mind is that his proposal amounts to a meaningless contest no matter who'd prevail even if his extremely high risk 'momentum style' of investing might appear to confer upon him inherent advantage. I did however propose that if we could reach some kind of reasonable compromise over rules and conditions that I'd be more than happy to accept his challenge. Say twenty stocks over a period of at least one year with all sectors of the market being represented and no penny stocks included and with all trading costs and tax consequences accounted for. Those conditions are much closer to the 'real world' of investing and as such would present a challenge I'd be very happy to accept.

So far I have heard nothing in reply from Muchie and I frankly don't expect his reply. I hope you understand my position, Vince, and appreciate why I wouldn't accept a 'setup' just so Munchie could prove his extremely high risk methods valid for the vast majority of investors who can ill afford catastrophics losses which may result therefrom.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Flakey...Be careful in your replies to the Munchkin Man as he may report you to Morningstar Community Watch. So far, both posters have shown class in their disagreement...just don't be drawn in to a situation that could ultimately lead to your banning.

You have made a good case for diversification/safety and a long term approach to investing. Rather than pray that the uranium market turns around...a prudent momentum investor would have pulled the plug at least at -10% to -20...Agree?

In my case...I am investing in more dividend type stocks that grow dividends over time...so I really don't worry about the price of the stock as much as long as I know I am investing in a strong business. As long as there is not a dividend cut...the income should keep flowing. If the price goes down...yield increases.

We don't want the dividend tax cuts to be repealed though...LOL

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I think I have been courteous to Munchie as a person even while justifiably remaining very critical of his high risk strategy of momentum investing in financially marginal companies and their penny stocks. THAT PERSPECTIVE will NOT CHANGE as I consider his posts to be a potentially grave disservice to most prudent, risk averse long term investors on these forums with their retirement portfolios possibly riding on the balance.

Concerning your remarks about momentum investors bailing after a -10 or -20% decline I certainly agree with THAT even though it has little relevance to ME as this has never and never would be my style of investing as I consider it far too risky to my capital and financial health.

But be prepared for an end to the dividend tax cut, PreII, as I consider it unlikely that the democratic congress, especially with a dem in the WH, would be willing or politically able to extend or make permanent those cuts. Enjoy them while they last for another couple of years. )-:

But keep loadin' up the truck on those financially solid high yielders, PreII; you're doin' the right thing for the long haul!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey:

The Munchkin Man would like to thank you for your reply to the Munchkin Man's original post.

You wrote:

"See my reply to your challenge on post #2051 of Off Topic/General Chat forum, Munchie."
_____

The Munchkin Man has read your reply.

The Munchkin Man regrets your decision to decline his challenge.

The Munchkin Man accepts your decision to decline his challenge.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Ivyman:

You wrote:

"You don't have enough balls to duel Flakey. He is the man."
_____

Huh?

The Munchkin Man is the one who challenged Mr. Flakey to the duel.

The Munchkin Man's stock picks for this duel are forever etched in the annals of cyberspace history and cannot be erased.

Win, lose, or draw, there is no escape.

A retraction of any or all of the Munchkin Man's stock picks for this duel would be a display of cowardice and would constitute grounds for a forfeit.

The Munchkin Man is the one who put his picks on the line for all who inhabit the entire universe of cyberspace to see.

Mr. Flakey is the one who turned the Munchkin Man down.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Hello Nick Drake!

Thank you very much for writing to the Munchkin Man.

You wrote:

"Hello Munchkin Man, I hope all is well with you."
_____

Thank you, Nick.

The Munchkin Man is in the process of recovering from the effects of some choppy seas he encountered along the voyage of life during the past year.

The Munchkin Man his righted his ship and is now back on course.

The Munchkin Man intends to stay on course before and after his ship comes in.
______________________________

You asked:

"OK if I take Mr. Flakey's place?"
_____

Yes!

You are most welcome to do so.
_____________________________

You wrote:

"I'll fill in if that's ok."
_____

The Munchkin Man is delighted and is jumping up and down with joy that you have accepted the Munchkin Man's friendly challenge.
____________________________________

You posted the following picks:

DRAD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.06

MNKD
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$9.22

ZGEN
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$12.19

ICO
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$3.98

RDWR
Closing Price as of August 24, 2007
$13.38
_______

Very interesting!

Thank you!

The Munchkin Man has printed out a copy of your picks and has placed it inside a manila file folder the Munchkin Man has designated and labeled for this contest.

The Munchkin Man wishes you the best of success in this contest.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey:

The Munchkin Man would like to thank you for taking the time to explain the rationale for your decision to decline the Munchkin Man's challenge to his stock picking duel.

You wrote:

"I turned Munchie down for some very good reasons."
_____

The Munchkin Man is gratified to hear that you believe in your "very good reasons."

The Munchkin Man believes that your decision to decline the Munchkin Man's stock picking duel is based upon your good faith in your "very good reasons."
_____________________________________

You wrote:

"First, his rules specified a very small number of stocks, namely five, which makes it impossible to build a diversified portfolio which is what the vast majority of prudent, risk averse investors should and would want to do."
_____

The annual Morningstar Stock Picks Contest is also based upon a selection of five stocks for each contestant. Do you decline to participate in these contests for the same reason?
____________________________________

You wrote:

"I know this is an alien concept to Munchie's investment style but a diversified portfolio is the only vehicle which truly levels the playing field by eliminating sector similarity and emphasizes stock picking skill across the entire stock market instead of playing on sector volatility which can occur at any point in market history."
_____

Your point is well taken.

However, this is only a contest.
______________________________________

You wrote:

"Second, his time frame is way too short, four months, which amounts to a pimple on an elephant's butt in terms of stock market history and takes no account of Mr. Market's 'peaks and valleys' which are an inevitable part of the real world environment of investing."
_____

In the grand scheme of life and stock market history, is a period of four months really that much less significant than the period of twelve months that governs the Morningstar Stock Picks Contest?
____________________________

You wrote:

"In this context a skilled stock picker must be able to capitalize on the market's crests and withstand the vagaries of the market's inevitable declines while achieving excellent risk-adjusted returns through it all. My suggestion was trhat the time frame should be three to five YEARS and not just three or four months."
_____

Are you saying that a time frame of 3 years for the Munchkin Man's stock picking duel would be acceptable to you?

If so, consider it done.

Pick 5 stocks and the winner will be the contestant whose 5-stock portfolio has achieved the greater percent gain (or the lesser percent loss) by the close of the last market trading day of the year 2010.
_________________________

You wrote:

"Third, and most importantly, Munchie's investment style pays little or no heed to the safety or financial viability of the companies he'd choose. Again this is something the vast majority or prudent, risk averse investors should or would want to take into account."
_____

If what you are saying above applies to the Munchkin Man's contest stock pick selections, then wouldn't this give you the advantage?

The Munchkin Man would like to remind you that this is only a friendly contest.
________________________________

You wrote:

"The result at least to my mind is that his proposal amounts to a meaningless contest no matter who'd prevail even if his extremely high risk 'momentum style' of investing might appear to confer upon him inherent advantage."
_____

The Munchkin Man commends you for having a concession speech written well in advance.
________________________________

Due to space limitations, the Munchkin Man needs to post the continuation of his reply in his next message in this thread.

TO BE CONTINUED.....

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey,

The Munchkin Man has now returned to continue and finish with his reply.

You wrote:

"I did however propose that if we could reach some kind of reasonable compromise over rules and conditions that I'd be more than happy to accept his challenge."
_____

The Munchkin Man did agree to a 3-year time frame as per your suggestion.
_________________________________

You wrote:

"Say twenty stocks over a period of at least one year with all sectors of the market being represented and no penny stocks included and with all trading costs and tax consequences accounted for."
_____

The Munchkin Man would have no problem with choosing 20 stocks.

Please allow the Munchkin Man an additional week to research his remaining stock selections.

Then the contest can commence on the day after Labor Day, on the date of Tuesday, September 04, 2007.

The Munchkin Man would have no problem with including all trading costs and tax consequences.

The Munchkin Man has included trading costs in his 2007 Munchkin Man Vs. Diehards Challenge.

However, the Munchkin Man objects to your following conditions:

***Your prohibition upon the selection of penny stocks.
Why would you be afraid to allow the Munchkin Man the inclusion of some penny stocks in his contest portfolio, especially over a 3-year period?

***Your stipulation that all market sectors must be included. Are you saying that there are a total of exactly 20 market sectors? If so, the Munchkin Man didn't know that. Are you saying that only one stock should be selected for each of these sectors?

The Munchkin Man finds these conditions to be far too restrictive.

The Munchkin Man wants the freedom to include penny stocks in his contest portfolio and to select and reject any sector he so well chooses.
_____

You wrote:

"Those conditions are much closer to the 'real world' of investing and as such would present a challenge I'd be very happy to accept."
_____

The Munchkin Man respectfully disagrees with the above.

In the "real world" of investing, there are no laws or restrictions against investing in penny stocks.

In the "real world" of investing, there are no laws or restrictions mandating that one must invest in each and every single sector of the market.

The "real world" does not impose the restrictions upon the investing public that you have proposed for this contest.
_________________________________

You wrote:

"So far I have heard nothing in reply from Muchie and I frankly don't expect his reply."
_____

You have underestimated the Munchkin Man.

The Munchkin Man was taking a nap when you were writing and posting your reply.

The Munchkin Man has since awakened.

And now the Munchkin Man has responded.

It's your move.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Prell:

The Munchkin Man would like to thank you for your input and participation in this discussion.

You wrote:

"Flakey...Be careful in your replies to the Munchkin Man as he may report you to Morningstar Community Watch."
_____

The Munchkin Man has no intention of reporting Mr. Flakey to Community Watch.

The Munchkin Man only takes this action in the case of extreme personal attacks.

As far as the Munchkin Man is concerned, such an attack has not been made.

The only point that Mr. Flakey made, to which the Munchkin Man took some slight offense, was an insinuation that the Munchkin Man's enthusiasm for penny stocks, and his penny stock picks resulting thereof, may be motivated by deliberate and premeditated "pump and dump" interests.

The Munchkin Man plays no part in "pump and dump" schemes.

The Munchkin Man is simply an investor who has an honest and natural enthusiasm for the penny stock class.

Unfortunately, there is a knee-jerk tendency among some investors to jump to the conclusion that anybody who publicly praises a given penny stock must be a "pump and dump" operator.

This simply isn't true.

It is these "pump and dump" operators who give honest and sincere penny stock enthusiasts and investors like the Munchkin Man a bad name.

The Munchkin Man has already forgiven Mr. Flakey for making an insinuation that the Munchkin Man might be connected to "pump and dump" interests.

Once again, the Munchkin Man has no intention of reporting Mr. Flakey to Community Watch.

The Munchkin Man fully expects Mr. Flakey to continue to conduct himself as the gentleman that he truly is.
_________________________________

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Is there some prohibition of this contest?
Why would Hombre report Flakey to M*?
Thanks .

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Prell:

Please accept the Munchkin Man's honest and sincere apologies for his failure to respond to the following excerpt from your post:
_____

"In my case...I am investing in more dividend type stocks that grow dividends over time...so I really don't worry about the price of the stock as much as long as I know I am investing in a strong business. As long as there is not a dividend cut...the income should keep flowing. If the price goes down...yield increases. We don't want the dividend tax cuts to be repealed though...LOL."
_____

You have described an investing strategy where you and the Munchkin Man share common ground.

The Munchkin Man is a strong proponent of dividend growth investing strategies.

This is a contribution that Taylor has made to the Munchkin Man's overall and composite investing philosophy and style.

Contrary to what may be an erroneous widespread belief, the Munchkin Man does not believe in investing 100% of his portfolio in penny stocks and uranium stocks.

Nor has the Munchkin Man ever suggested such a recommendation to any other investor.

The Munchkin Man shall close for now by wishing you the best of success and profitability with your dividend growth investing stocks.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I enjoy seeing your penny stock ideas and if limited to a small portion of your portfolio...might not be bad for your wealth or it could be. You know how these things can reverse course. At the very least...morningstar subscribers should at least create a mock portfolio of your picks...they might be surprised.

Comparing Munchkin and Flakey's investing strategies is like apples to oranges. Flakey is in all areas of the market at all times buying the highest quality stocks (businesses)...a sort of enhanced index strategy designed to beat the market.

It would be interesting if you two guys were mutual fund co-managers of the same fund...Sort of like Master's Select Funds. Flakey would handle the value side of the portfolio while Munchkin would handle the aggessive growth portion. I'm sure we could find a few other Morningstar subscribers to contribute stocks to the portfolio...maybe one with a growth at a reasonable price strategy (maybe that's Flakey's area...maybe one like Eagle Ted who specializes in large cap core stocks...

Rather than have some type of confrontational contest where someone gets their nose rubbed in it...I would rather see the most respected posters on Morningstar forums contribute from 5-8 stocks to a mock mutual fund...and just see how good we can be as investors. People like Copie or Russ on the Dividend Investors Forum...Maybe Earl from Fidelity Forum...although he may strickly invest in mutual funds. I think that would be interesting...and actually allow not limit the managers buy and sell decisions...because you know Munckin's penny stock strategy would be a fast trading style to be successful.

It would be interesting if someone could put something like this together.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I just can't resist and due to intellectual curiosity I will relent and accept Munchie's challenge with the compromises he proposed. The contest will run for three years starting today.

Munchie can take his requested time selecting his twenty stocks, penny stocks included without regard to sector allocation or financial quality of the companies, using Friday's closing prices as a starting point. I would expect Munchie to advise us of his trades as he makes them and to account for expenses and tax consequences as they accumulate. The final date for the contest will be 8/24/2010. I'm using eighteen stocks and two mutual funds. I'll list my portfolio below and I won't have to account for trading expenses or tax consequences, unlike Munchie, 'cause I intend to post this as a buy and hold portfolio.

I do not expect to win the contest; my motive is simply to see how my portfolio will perform under a variety of market environments. My goal is not maximum absolute total returns but rather maximum RISK-ADJUSTED total returns combined with very strong downmarket resistance. If we slide into the economic recession which I have been predicting for two years this should be most interesting to watch how our investing styles and portfolios perform. This should be a lot of fun for everyone involved. I suggest interested parties should bookmark this post so it will be easy to keep track of things as we go along.

I'll start another post, due to space considerations, to list my portfolio.

Best of luck, Munchie!

And if anyone would like to enter a portfolio of their OWN, HAVE AT IT; the MORE the MERRIER! (-:

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Mutual funds: 11.88% in EGLRX and 18.72% in FBRVX

Stocks: Utility--1.18% in CWCO; Energy--3.06% in EQT and 3.07% in IMO; Financial--4.71% in RY; Industrials--3.83% in GLYT, 3.90% in OSK and 4.79% in AVD; Consumer Goods--5.11% in CHD; Media--1.50% in MHP; Telecomm--0.89% in ATNI; Business Services--5.24% in CNI and 5.62% in CRRC; Healthcare--3.40% in NVO, 4.13% in BCR and 4.22% in XRAY; Technology Hardware--4.84% in MCHP and 4.56% in RAVN; and Technology Software--5.35% in QSII.

Starting value and benchmarks: $10,000; VTSMX, M*Star US stock market index, M*Star Mid/Small Growth portfolio.

Valuations of FCHPX (Flakey's Contest Hybrid Portfolio) versus VTSMX, respectively: P/B--3.32/2.312; Trailing P/E--16.85/16.92; ROA/TTM--10.31/10.17; ROE/TTM--20.34/18.89; Yield/TTM--0.99%/1.58%; and 5-year Dividend Growth--17.93%/NA

Worst Performance: No losing years for FCHPX, 3 years for VTSMX (2000, 2001 and 2002). Downmarket Performance: +43% total return from 2000 through 2002 for FCHPX; a loss of -40% for VTSMX during the same period.

Total Returns from beginning of 1997 to Friday's close: 509% for FCHPX versus 101% for VTSMX.

Total Returns in % for 1, 3, 5 and 10 years for FCHPX versus VTSMX, respectively: 20.57/14.92; 21.88/11.35; 23.96/10.60; and 17.84/5.13.

There you have it---ENJOY!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

What have you got to lose? Win or lose, you're not out of any money, so, it's just your ego can't stand bruising? But, then again, you might just win and get to gloat for months.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Why not enter a portfolio of your own, Ted? You're a pretty good stock picker. Another portfolio with an investment style different from mine, Munchie's or Nick Drake's would make things even more interesting.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

pls. read post #16

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Eagle Ted!

The Munchkin Man would like to thank you for your contribution to your thread.

You wrote:

"Why not accept the challenge, Flakey? What have you got to lose? Win or lose, you're not out of any money, so, it's just your ego can't stand bruising? But, then again, you might just win and get to gloat for months."
_____

The Munchkin Man has good news for you.

If you read Post #16 and Post #17, you will see that Mr. Flakey has decided to accept the challenge of the Mighty Munchkin Man.

The Munchkin Man has more good news.

The Munchkin Man will be posting his 20-stock contest portfolio this evening.

Thanks again for your interest in this historic event.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Just use Friday's closing prices as our baseline for the start of our contest.

Good luck and may the best investment style prevail!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey!

The Munchkin Man started jumping up and down with joy after he read your post this Sunday morning.

You wrote:

"I just can't resist and due to intellectual curiosity I will relent and accept Munchie's challenge with the compromises he proposed. The contest will run for three years starting today."
_____

Yippee!!!

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

You have made the Munchkin Man's day!
___________________________________

You wrote:

"Munchie can take his requested time selecting his twenty stocks, penny stocks included without regard to sector allocation or financial quality of the companies, using Friday's closing prices as a starting point."
_____

The Munchkin Man was so excited when he heard the good news that you decided to accept his friendly stock picking duel that the Munchkin Man spent the entire afternoon researching and deciding upon his remaining contest stock pick selections.

The Munchkin Man's entire contest stock portfolio will be posted this evening.
______________________________

You wrote:

"I would expect Munchie to advise us of his trades as he makes them and to account for expenses and tax consequences as they accumulate. The final date for the contest will be 8/24/2010. I'm using eighteen stocks and two mutual funds. I'll list my portfolio below and I won't have to account for trading expenses or tax consequences, unlike Munchie, 'cause I intend to post this as a buy and hold portfolio."
_____

The Munchkin Man accepts your proposed deadline of August 24, 2010, as the final date of this contest. This date happens to fall on a Tuesday.

If you are willing to stand by your contest picks as a buy and hold portfolio, then the Munchkin Man is willing to do the same with his.

For better or for worse, the stock picks the Munchkin Man posts this evening for this contest will remain in force until the close of the final market day of this contest, on the date of Tuesday, August 24, 2007.

If one or more of the Munchkin Man's contest stock picks goes bankrupt, that's the way it goes. The Munchkin Man will accept the consequences.

This was what the Munchkin Man had in mind anyway, in conformity with the rules which govern the annual Morningstar Stock Picks Forum Contest.
_______________________________

You wrote:

"I do not expect to win the contest; my motive is simply to see how my portfolio will perform under a variety of market environments. My goal is not maximum absolute total returns but rather maximum RISK-ADJUSTED total returns combined with very strong downmarket resistance."
_____

The Munchkin Man has to be honest here.

The Munchkin Man's motive here is to win.
_______________________________

You wrote:

"If we slide into the economic recession which I have been predicting for two years this should be most interesting to watch how our investing styles and portfolios perform. This should be a lot of fun for everyone involved. I suggest interested parties should bookmark this post so it will be easy to keep track of things as we go along."
_____

Agreed.
__________________________________

You wrote:

"And if anyone would like to enter a portfolio of their OWN, HAVE AT IT; the MORE the MERRIER! (-:"
_____

The Munchkin Man would also like to join Mr. Flakey in inviting anybody who is interested in entering this contest to enter a portfolio of their own.
___________________________________

You wrote:

"Best of luck, Munchie!"
_____

The Munchkin Man wishes you the best of luck as well.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey!

The Munchkin Man would like to thank you for posting your contest portfolio for this historic event.

The Munchkin Man has printed out a copy of your contest portfolio and has placed it inside his special manila file folder which has been designated and marked for this event.

Thanks again.

Good luck to you.

May the best man win.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey!

You wrote:

"Take more time if you need to, Munchie. Just use Friday's closing prices as our baseline for the start of our contest."
_____

The Munchkin Man is as ready now as he will ever be.

The Munchkin Man's contest stock picks shall be posted shortly this evening.
_______________________________

You wrote:

"Good luck and may the best investment style prevail!"
_____

Ditto to you as well.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

you personally in my initial post but rather to ridicule your investment style which seems too risky for my cup o' tea. But perhaps I can learn something from you regardless of my prejudice. In sincerely wish you the best for your life, now and in future.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings To All:

The Munchkin Man is pleased to announce that the Munchkin Man has compiled his final list of stock pick selections for his historic contest against Mr. Flakey.

Each of these contest stock pick selections will be listed in the following format:

Name Of Company
Ticker Symbol
Closing Price Of Friday, August 24, 2007.

The Munchkin Man has chosen a total of 20 stock picks in all, as per Mr. Flakey's suggestion.

Some of the Munchkin Man's picks may surprise you.

In addition to some of the Munchkin Man's beloved penny stocks and uranium stocks, the Munchkin Man also chose a few blue chip stocks as well.

Without further ado, here they are!
____________________________

Alberta Star Development Corp.
ASXSF.OB
$0.78

BHP Billiton Ltd.
BHP
$62.29

Oilsands Quest Inc.
BQI
$4.83

Cameco Corp.
CCJ
$39.74

Crosshair Exploration And Mining Corp.
CXZ
$1.39

Deep Down Inc.
DPDW.OB
$0.765

Endeavor Mining Capital Corp.
EDVMF.PK
$8.62

Falcon Oil And Gas Ltd.
FOLGF.PK
$0.875

Geotec Inc.
GETC.PK
$0.068

U.S. Global Investors Inc.
GLOW
$21.71

Lexam Explorations Inc.
LEXEF.PK
$0.6271

North West Oil Group
NWOG.PK
$0.035

Paladin Resources Ltd.
PALAF.PK
$5.311

Uranium One Inc.
SXRZF.PK
$11.28

3D Icon Corporation
TDCP.PK
$0.44

Tidelands Oil And Gas Corp.
TIDE.OB
$0.21

Uranium Resources Inc.
URRE
$8.47

Whole Foods Market Inc.
WFMI
$44.54

Western Uranium Corp.
WURNF.PK
$1.87

World Water And Power Corp.
WWAT.OB
$1.64
_________________________________

And there you have it!

For the sake of this contest, the Munchkin Man is allocating equal amounts of 5 percent into each of the above listed 20 stocks.

Good luck, Mr. Flakey.

May the best man win.

Let the games begin!

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings Mr. Flakey:

You wrote:

"BTW & FWIW, Munchie, I never meant to insult you personally in my initial post but rather to ridicule your investment style which seems too risky for my cup o' tea."
_____

No problem.

It is all forgotten and forgiven.
____________________________

You wrote:

"But perhaps I can learn something from you regardless of my prejudice."
_____

The Munchkin Man hopes to learn something from you as well.

The Munchkin Man is not too proud to admit that he still has a lot to learn.
_______________________________

You wrote:

"In sincerely wish you the best for your life, now and in future."
_____

The Munchkin Man wishes the very best for your life as well.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

how you do your research on these stocks? When I attempted to put your list up on M*Star as a 'Watch List Portfolio' alas I got data for only 7 of the 20 on your list.

Thanks.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Hello Mr. Flakey!

You wrote:

"Munchie, if you'd be so kind, pray tell me how you do your research on these stocks? When I attempted to put your list up on M*Star as a 'Watch List Portfolio' alas I got data for only 7 of the 20 on your list."
_____

Welcome to the world of penny stocks which trade on the Pink Sheet Exchange and the OTC Bulletin Board Exchange!

The Munchkin Man is going to take a guess that the Morningstar data for the 7 stocks you did find were those which are trading on one of the primary American exchanges.

These stocks include the following:
____________________

BHP

BQI

CCJ

CXZ

GLOW

URRE

WFMI
___________________________

The other stocks the Munchkin Man entered for this contest had either a PK or an OB after its main ticker symbol.

When you type in the ticker symbols for these stocks into the Morningstar Quote box, do NOT include the PK or the OB.

For example, the first such stock on the Munchkin Man's list was as follows:

Alberta Star Development Corp.
ASXSF.OB

In the Morningstar Quote box, just type in ASXSF. Do not type in the OB.

Another one of the Munchkin Man's stock picks was as follows:

North West Oil Group
NWOG.PK

In the Morningstar Quote box, just type in NWOG. Do not type in the PK.

Whereas the Morningstar site does not require the PK and the OB symbols, the Yahoo Finance site does require these symbols before data on these stocks can be retrieved.

To wit:

YAHOO FINANCE DATA ON NWOG.PK

Here's another site the Munchkin Man goes to for his research:

PINKSHEETS.COM

In the quote box on this site, you don't have to type in the PK or the OB symbol here either.

Consider the following Munchkin Man contest pick:

3D Icon Corporation
TDCP.OB

In the Quote Box for this site, just type in TDCP. Do not type in the OB.

The Munchkin Man hopes this helps.

If you need any additional assistance with your research of the Munchkin Man's contest stock picks, please feel free to let the Munchkin Man know.

The Munchkin Man will be glad to help you again.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings To All:

The market bell has rung.

The contest has begun.

Good luck, Mr. Flakey.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

any other contestants, Munchie!

This will be fun to watch over time.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

BAC 9%
C 9%
ALL 9%
MCO 9%
BBY 9%
HOG 9%
JNJ 9%

BUD 8%
WWY 8%

DRI 7%
PEP 7%
CL 7%

Good luck, one and all.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

But you need twenty stocks. Can you fill out your list so that the playing field is even for all participants?

Best of luck to you and all!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I assume as long as none of them are over 10% it'll work, so:

BAC 7%
ALL 7%
MCO 7%
JNJ 7%
BBY 6%
HOG 6%
CL 6%
C 5%
BUD 5%
WWY 5%
PEP 4%
CTAS 4%
WMT 4%
XOM 4%
HSY 4%
TIF 4%
CFC 4%
CSCO 4%
GE 4%
WFC 3%

Shoulda, coulda, woulda read this thing better.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

equal weight for each


abv
aig
amx
BAC
C
cbak
cbl
ddr
GE
hook
MO
nct
PFE
PG
rad
sab
sam
sho
T
XOM

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Flakey and Munchie welcome y'all with open arms and wish best of luck to all!

I DO HOPE that all contestants are bookmarking this post and/or keeping a hard copy of their portfolios for future reference.

I will be giving periodic reports of mine and Munchie's results, probably on a monthly or quarterly basis. You other folks are certainly welcome and encouraged to do likewise.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

open?
close?

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Can I participate here too ? I am no expert stockpicker but would love to take part in the contest. No ego here and if the participant entries are limited i understand.

Let me know. and if i am allowed to participate then how much $ are we starting with. I will create a yahoo finance portfolio so i can track it.

Thanks fellas.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I used 20 stocks, the contest requirement, in any percentage of allocation (you're NOT REQUIRED to 'equal-weight' the portfolio), and I put them up on M*Star as a watch portfolio which presumes a starting base of $10K.

For purposes of simplicity all contestants so far have placed their entry portfolios on a 'buy and hold' basis, otherwise you must account for expenses and tax consequences if you do any trading during the run of the contest.

Good luck!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Here's my list: (Ticker/closing price 8/24/07/company)

AIG...65.23...AIG International Group
AMED..37.54...Amedisys
BCS...48.66...Barclays ADR
BTI...64.15...British American Tobacco ADR
COP...80.74...ConocoPhillips
EBIX..50.75...EBIX
ELOS..23.06...Syneron Medical
EPE...38.02...Enterprise GP Holdings
ETP...53.95...Energy Transfer Partners
GE....39.38...General Electric
HOG...54.21...Harley-Davidson
HSVLY.13.67...Highveld Steel ADR
JNJ...61.84...Johnson & Johnson
PEP...67.51...Pepsi
PMTI..30.75...Palomar Medical Technologies
SAI...17.93...SAIC
TCK...43.38...Teck Cominco
UPS...75.34...United Postal Service
VPHM..10.03...Viropharma
WNR...50.63...Western Refining


Equal weight. For some of them, dividends/distributions are a considerable part of the attraction. The M* watch list isn't going to help there. So, I'll have to figure out some way to get a total return figure.

Today was not pretty for some of them, but that wasn't part of my selection criteria.

There are some speculative names in the list. AMED, EBIX, ELOS, HSVLY, PMTI, TCK, VPHM are not for the faint of heart (although none are even remotely close to pennies). A few of these are very small (again, a relative term). It would be no great shock to see any (or all!) of them get clocked.

However, these also have considerable potential - if their business plans work out, any of them could potentially double or more from here in the time frame of this exercise. The key to my final standing will likely lie within this group. If too many blow up, I will do poorly. If none of these blow up, this portfolio should have a good overall result.

Barclay's is a somewhat courageous choice, given the current market for financials (and it was down 4.76% today!). I wanted at least one bank and one insurance company on the list as my objective is an illustrative portfolio.

I have included mega caps along with some speculative small names. There are some very cyclical names (energy/mining/steel) and some that are defensive (consumer staples, tobacco, and medical). Five of the twenty are foreign companies. I tend to favor GARP (growth at a reasonable price) investing, and generally look for solid balance sheets. Company-specific event risk is probably the weak link in this portfolio. We will see.

Good luck to all!

Originally posted in thread: 10905

get ready

Originally posted in thread: 10905

go!!!

Originally posted in thread: 10905

My picks are in(and I am already cheating). Since the requirement is putting 20 stocks in the portfolio, which i am putting 1% in the stocks that i consider filler for the portfolio :) (ie i wont invest with my own money. I am treating as if I have 10,000 of my own money to invest and not just for a contest)

btw, my brokerage allows watch list portfolios and it will reinvest dividends, consider trading commisions etc, so i get accurate returns. :)

Drymartini's M* Contest portfolio
-------------------------------

Ticker Name %
AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO 1
APOL APOLLO GROUP INC CL A 1
BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORPOR 1
BBY BEST BUY INC 1
CSG CADBURY SCHWEPPES PLC 1
COF CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP 1
CTAS CINTAS CORP 1
EXBD CORPORATE EXECUTIVE BR 5
EBAY EBAY INC 1
ECL ECOLAB INC 1
EXPD EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC 15
FAST FASTENAL CO 15
FTEK FUEL-TECH N V 5
IGT INTERNATIONAL GAME TEC 1
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 5
MHP MCGRAW HILL COS INC 5
MCO MOODYS CORP COM 15
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 5
USB US BANCORP DEL 5
WU WESTERN UN CO COM 15

Originally posted in thread: 10905

santa cruz
abv,aig,amx,BAC,C,cbak,cbl,ddr,GE,hook,MO,nct,pfe,PG,rad,sab,sam,sho,T,XOM,
5% IN EACH

Munchkin Man
ASXSF,BHP,BQI,CCJ,CXZ,DPDW,EDVMF,FOLGF,GETC,GLOW,LEXEF,NWOG,PALAF,SXRZF,TDCP,TIDE,.URRE,WFMI,WURNF,WWAT,
5% IN EACH

Roger from SF
AIG,AMED,BCS,BTI,COP,EBIX,ELOS,EPE,ETP,GE,HOG,HSVLY,JNJ,PEP,PMTI,SAI,TCK,UPS,VPHM,WNR

EagleTed
BAC,ALL,MCO,JNJ,BBY,HOG,cl,C,BUD,WWY,PEP,CTAS,WMT,XOM,HSY,TIF,CFC,CSCO,GE,WFC,
BAC 7%
ALL 7%
MCO 7%
JNJ 7%
BBY 6%
HOG 6%
CL 6%
C 5%
BUD 5%
WWY 5%
PEP 4%
CTAS 4%
WMT 4%
XOM 4%
HSY 4%
TIF 4%
CFC 4%
CSCO 4%
GE 4%
WFC 3%

flakey
eglrx,FBRVX,CWCO,EQT,IMO,RY,GLYT,OSK,AVD,CHD,MHP,ATNI,CNI,CRRC,NVO,BCR,XRAY,MCHP,RAVN,QSII,
11.88% in EGLRX
18.72% in FBRVX
1.18% in CWCO
3.06% in EQT
3.07% in IMO
4.71% in RY
3.83% in GLYT
0.90% in OSK
4.79% in AVD
5.11% in CHD
1.50% in MHP
0.89% in ATNI
5.24% in CNI
5.62% in CRRC
3.40% in NVO
4.13% in BCR
4.22% in XRAY
4.84% in MCHP
4.56% in RAVN
5.35% in QSII.

drymartini
AXP,APOL,BAC, BBY,CSG,COF,CTAS,EXBD,EBAY,ECL,EXPD,FAST,FTEK,IGT,JNJ,MHP,MCO,PG,USB,WU,
AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO 1
APOL APOLLO GROUP INC CL A 1
BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORPOR 1
BBY BEST BUY INC 1
CSG CADBURY SCHWEPPES PLC 1
COF CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP 1
CTAS CINTAS CORP 1
EXBD CORPORATE EXECUTIVE BR 5
EBAY EBAY INC 1
ECL ECOLAB INC 1
EXPD EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC 15
FAST FASTENAL CO 15
FTEK FUEL-TECH N V 5
IGT INTERNATIONAL GAME TEC 1
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 5
MHP MCGRAW HILL COS INC 5
MCO MOODYS CORP COM 15
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 5
USB US BANCORP DEL 5
WU WESTERN UN CO COM 15

Originally posted in thread: 10905

08/31/07 ABV 7.15 Shares @ 69.97
08/31/07 AIG 7.58 Shares @ 66
08/31/07 AMX 8.27 Shares @ 60.46
08/31/07 BAC 9.87 Shares @ 50.68
08/31/07 C 10.67 Shares @ 46.88
08/31/07 CBAK 109.17 Shares @ 4.58
08/31/07 CBL 15.17 Shares @ 32.96
08/31/07 DDR 9.35 Shares @ 53.48
08/31/07 GE 12.86 Shares @ 38.87
08/31/07 HOOK 74.74 Shares @ 6.69
08/31/07 MO 7.2 Shares @ 69.41
08/31/07 NCT 30.05 Shares @ 16.64
08/31/07 PFE 20.13 Shares @ 24.84
08/31/07 PG 7.66 Shares @ 65.31
08/31/07 RAD 98.62 Shares @ 5.07
08/31/07 SAB 13.33 Shares @ 37.5
08/31/07 SAM 10.25 Shares @ 48.76
08/31/07 SHO 18.55 Shares @ 26.96
08/31/07 T 12.54 Shares @ 39.87
08/31/07 XOM 5.83 Shares @ 85.73

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Santa----$10071.46

Roger----$10070.27

Flakey---$9975.24

Ted------$9956.75

Dry------$9820.40 and

Munchie--$9700.41

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Thanks Flakey for cheering me up before the long weekend. NOT.

You are such a nice guy :D

anyways, i hope you entered the right weightage, my foliofn brokerage shows 10,007.43. Thats fine. its probably because of commissions difference. thats fine as long as we are tracking everyones investments in same brokerage

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Greetings!

The Munchkin Man would like to take this time and space to warmly welcome the following new entrants for this historic contest:

Eagle Ted
Santa Cruz
Roger From SF
Dry Martini

The Munchkin Man would also like to congratulate each of the above contestants and also Mr. Flakey himself.

For each and every one of you are beating the Munchkin Man after the very first week.

Of course, the contest has only just begun.

Keep up the good work.

Good luck to all.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

results are meaningless.

I posted results simply to get everyone's attention so that if there are any glaring discrepancies in tracking portfolios they would be brought to my immediate attention I did note that Santa made an error in my allocation for AVD for example which he listed as 0.90% whereas I listed it as 3.90%---a result of a simple typo IMO.

I arrived at everyone's allocations by assigning a portfolio value of $10,000 and then using last Friday's closing prices dividing the securities' corresponding dollar amounts by their share prices to obtain the number of shares for each security in M*Star "Watch List' portfolios which I entered on M*Star.

FYI and to put things in perspective, folks, VTSMX which I use as the broadest possible benchmark proxy for the Wilshire 5000 total stock market index was down -0.28% for the week.

FWIW I suspect that if we have a deep slump in the market over the next three years Munchie will suffer the most and I will suffer the least and probably even make a fair amount of money while everyone else treads water slightly above or below flat line; OTOH if we have a terrific bull market Munchie will have a better than even chance to outperform our group. If we have a more 'normal' (10-12% APY) then we'll have a real dogfight for top spot with Munchie probably bringing up the rear but probably not by all that much.

Have a great weekend and stay safe, y'all!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

"I did note that Santa made an error in my allocation for AVD for example which he listed as 0.90% whereas I listed it as 3.90%---a result of a simple typo IMO."

Originally posted in thread: 10905

if it is not what day did it start?

Originally posted in thread: 10905

on last Monday, 8/27/07, Santa. Initial price for all securities was the closing price for the previous Friday, 8/24/07.

Good luck!

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

To Mr. Flakey And All Contestants:

The Munchkin Man committed a typo in the listing of his contest stock pick selections in Post #27.

Please refer to the following stock pick entry:
______

U.S. Global Investors Inc.
GLOW
$21.71
______

The ticker symbol shown above is incorrect.

The correct ticker symbol for this stock is GROW instead of GLOW.

Delete the letter "L" and replace it with the letter "R."

It should be GROW.

The Munchkin Man apologizes to all for his error.

Good luck to all.

Best Wishes,

Munchkin Man

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Your first week's result changes to $9633.29.

Sorry I didn't catch the typo error.

Don't obsess about your first week's showing. One week's results are meaningless and you'll improve over time I'm sure.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I don't check in here to see what's happening for several days and look at the excitement I missed. Should be fun to watch.
Best to all!

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Ticker Date Transaction Shares Price Commission Total Shares Total Avg Cost Total Amount Edit Delete
ABV 09/01/07 transfer security 7.50 66.66 $0.00 7.50 66.66 $0.00 Edit
AIG 09/01/07 transfer security 7.40 67.60 $0.00 7.40 67.60 $0.00 Edit
AMX 09/01/07 transfer security 8.24 60.68 $0.00 8.24 60.68 $0.00 Edit
BAC 09/01/07 transfer security 9.64 51.87 $0.00 9.64 51.87 $0.00 Edit
C 09/01/07 transfer security 10.31 48.50 $0.00 10.31 48.50 $0.00 Edit
CBAK 09/01/07 reset position 104.60 4.78 $0.00 104.60 4.78 $0.00 Edit
CBL 09/01/07 transfer security 15.50 32.25 $0.00 15.50 32.25 $0.00 Edit
DDR 09/01/07 transfer security 9.72 51.46 $0.00 9.72 51.46 $0.00 Edit
GE 09/01/07 transfer security 12.69 39.41 $0.00 12.69 39.41 $0.00 Edit
HOOK 09/01/07 transfer security 81.30 6.15 $0.00 81.30 6.15 $0.00 Edit
MO 09/01/07 transfer security 7.23 69.19 $0.00 7.23 69.19 $0.00 Edit
NCT 09/01/07 transfer security 29.87 16.74 $0.00 29.87 16.74 $0.00 Edit
PFE 09/01/07 transfer security 20.21 24.74 $0.00 20.21 24.74 $0.00 Edit
PG 09/01/07 transfer security 7.58 65.93 $0.00 7.58 65.93 $0.00 Edit
RAD 09/01/07 transfer security 98.04 5.10 $0.00 98.04 5.10 $0.00 Edit
SAB 09/01/07 transfer security 13.59 36.79 $0.00 13.59 36.79 $0.00 Edit
SAM 09/01/07 transfer security 10.82 46.23 $0.00 10.82 46.23 $0.00 Edit
SHO 09/01/07 transfer security 19.12 26.15 $0.00 19.12 26.15 $0.00 Edit
T 09/01/07 transfer security 12.39 40.36 $0.00 12.39 40.36 $0.00 Edit
XOM 09/01/07 transfer security 5.83 85.69 $0.00 5.83 85.69 $0.00 Edit

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I got $10,069.66 for my total(with 8/24/07 close start date) so it is a match
with what you got.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

I'm sharing the information as a service to all contestants and to satisfy my own intellectual curiosity. My records indicate $10,071.46 for your result which is an insignificant difference possibly due to a very tiny 'rounding error' on my part in entering your portfolio as a 'Watch list portfolio on M*Star.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

distributions be reinvested or taken as cash?

And yes I believe we are so close on my stuff I am calling it a match.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

portfolio software treats dividends or distributions, Santa, but however they do that (I hadn't considered that contingency to be honest about it) for simplicity's sake and to make the playing field level for all I'd prefer to simply go by whatever treatment protocol they use unless someone has a compelling objection to that.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905

my stuff taking distributions in cash is easier.
I am not sure what M* does either.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

Regarding M*'s portfolio, here's what ljoneill2 wrote me in this thread (#17):

Unfortunately, I don't think you should trust M*'s arithmetic. Check out conversation #6763 in the Morningstar.com forum. Here's what M*_Scott had to say:

"Hi! Sorry it took us so long to get back to you. You are correct in your assumptions about how this number is calculated. We basically look at the returns of the portfolio's holdings, multiply those by the current holding percentage, then add them together to get a weighted average. This is meant to be a 'transaction-neutral' piece of information, basically saying that, if you invested at your current weightings at the beginning of the time period and those weightings were static, you would have experienced a return matching the return we show. Sorry if you find this misleading; it was only meant to give customers an idea of what their overall portfolio return would be given the assumptions above. For a more specific and real-world scenario, check out our MyPerformance section in Portfolio Manager. That is probably much closer to what you are looking for."

So in essence, this overstates the portfolio impact of your winners and understates the impact of your losers. Bad times...unless you're getting something I'm not. I've tried it in both Watchlist and Transaction portfolios, and the only good idea of performance I get is from the "My Performance" section within the Transaction portfolio.

Luke

For a while, I tried using a M* transaction portfolio. Dividends had to be entered manually. Therefore my experiment didn't last long.

Regards.

Originally posted in thread: 10905

'My Performance' (using 8/27/07 as the initial start date) as well in tracking our portfolios. I just hope our players don't engage in a lot of trading over the three years as this will make it a real nightmare to follow.

Peace and love,

Flakey

Originally posted in thread: 10905