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JWR1945a
06-23-2008, 10:01 AM | Post #2531509 |
46 Replies
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I recently posted this NOTE at my web site:
Now It Is Four Powerful Advantages
Remember
this?
Three Powerful Advantages of Dividend
Strategies
Here are
three powerful advantages of dividend-based strategies.
1) Dividends
continue indefinitely.
2) Dividends
isolate you from price fluctuations.
3)
Dividend-based strategies have a gentle failure mechanism.
I can now
add a fourth: Dividend Strategies can lift your Safe Withdrawal Rate to 6.0% of
your original balance (plus adjustments that match inflation).
To elaborate the fourth point, here are
three approaches that reach 6%:
1) Income as
by ElLobo and Orygunduck on these boards.
2) Dividend
blend using Josh Peters’s model portfolios.
3) A delayed
purchase using today’s high interest preferred shares (such as BAC and C) during
the first few years.
Have fun.
John Walter
Russell
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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ElLobo
06-24-2008, 12:32 AM | Post #2531807
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t, "Besides the fact the income 'can' drop (even with reinvesting a part of the yield), using this method, the major realization of using this method is : The Value Of One's Portfolio Needs to Become Almost Meaningless in the quest for income, to invest this way.." My 'goal', in retirement, is to be able to withdraw, if I need to do so, $600/month, for every $120,000 I have invested in my portfolio. Next, I need that amount of monthly income to last as long as I, and LaLoba, live. Next, I would like to increast that amount of monthly withdrawals by the rate of inflation, as long as I, and LaLoba, live. If my strategy can do this, I will have 50% more then the standard, traditional, 4% real, inflation adjusted rate of withdrawal that most retireee strive for. I should never have to sell anything, doing so only at my convenience. Given all of the safety factors I have built into this strategy, I believe my strategy has a 100% probability of success. That is, I know exactly how, and why, my strategy can fail. Given this, I really don't care a rats baduzzy what the value of my portfolio does, over time. I care only that it generates at least $600/month in yield income. You may call it an extreme strategy, but it makes sense to me!
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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Lili..
06-24-2008, 7:43 AM | Post #2531858
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Thanks, ElLobo! What I worry about is that calculations like $600/month per $120k invested will prove to be too little if the price of oil is sustained at these high levels or worse, goes up.
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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bilperk
06-24-2008, 7:53 AM | Post #2531865
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ElLobo, Dude, your FRO is getting a little fat. What happened to the "3% and sell 100 shares" rule? I smell performance chasing :o} As always, the arguments above come down to faith and psychology; faith in your plan and the psychological make-up to stick with it. Seeing you stock, fund, or portfolio drop 30% in the last year will be hard for all but the true income believers. Bottom line: All strategies work if the investor understands what he owns, understands what he wants, and has a plan to get it. "There's battle lines bein' drawn Nobody's right if everybody's wrong Young people speakin' their minds Gettin' so much resistance from behind"
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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ElLobo
06-24-2008, 8:08 AM | Post #2531874
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Bill, "Dude, your FRO is getting a little fat. What happened to the "3% and sell 100 shares" rule? I smell performance chasing :o}" Over the last year, it was turning out to be buy 100 shares (the other side of that rule), and I didn't have the cash to do so! "Seeing you stock, fund, or portfolio drop 30% in the last year will be hard for all but the true income believers." How hard was it for the true growth believers to see that same drop, and have to decide which of their positions to sell! "You'd better stop, children, what's that sound, everybody look what's 'going round!"
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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bilperk
06-24-2008, 9:54 AM | Post #2531906
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"How hard was it for the true growth believers to see that same drop, and have to decide which of their positions to sell!" Real, real hard I suspect :o} A 30% drop is no fun for anyone but 20 something who know what they are doing and the truly delusional. "What a field day for the heat A thousand people in the street Singin' songs and carryin' signs Mostly sayin', "hooray for our side""
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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ElLobo
06-24-2008, 11:14 AM | Post #2531936
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BIll, "A 30% drop is no fun for anyone but 20 something who know what they are doing and the truly delusional." I get that way whenever a stock, like MMA or WM or . . . . . cuts it's dividend 20-30%! But only if I hold it. And it's not FRO or NAT! Back then, whenever the 'younguns were in Hyde Park, looking for themselves, I was in Pittsburgh, looking for work. 8-)
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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KathieLarsen
06-24-2008, 11:35 AM | Post #2531945
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El Lobo, I am very interested in your approach to your portfolio. As I am nearing retirement, I am transitioning my portfolio toward more income playing stocks. I am still debating the role (if any) of bonds in my portfolio. I'm going to study your portfolio a bit and may have questions for you later. Thanks for posting your portfolio!
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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bilperk
06-24-2008, 12:01 PM | Post #2531953
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"Over the last year, it was turning out to be buy 100 shares (the other side of that rule), and I didn't have the cash to do so!" I guess I don't understand the rule very well. FRO is up 92% in the last year. Why not sell some of that and put into your losers? Like I said, 30-80% losses in a single stock are real hard to take and even harder to add more to.
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Re: Four Powerful Advantages
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ElLobo
06-25-2008, 12:12 AM | Post #2532221
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Bill, Over this past year, I have reduced the number of individual stocks I hold in my portfolio. 'Ifn you remember, I held about 20 a year or so ago, and am now down to these 6. The reason is that I have gone to CEFs instead, for diversification reasons. Regarding FRO, I once held about equal positions in FRO, NAT, and VLCCF, managed in the way I described. In November of last year, I consolidated into just FRO. The reason is that NAT and VLCCF had morphed into ship owners, while FRO morphed into ship operations managers. In fact, FRO manages ships from the other two. I liked some of the non-transport things that FRO did last year, whenever spot tanker rates were low. Anyhow, that's what I did, and I described my reasoning in a thread back then. My current position in NAT is the result of my recent 'experiment' into dividend capture, although I am not really uncomfortable holding it long term, if I have to. Regarding CEFs, my fund holdings (VWEHX and ADVDX, at the time) were never 'managed' like I did my individual stocks. VWEHX was always buy and hold. You will notice that it, alone, provides a basic 4% (of my whole portfolio) traditional rate of withdrawal. Anyhow, whenever I switched from individual stocks to CEFs, they also went into the buy & hold camp. "Like I said, 30-80% losses in a single stock are real hard to take and even harder to add more to." Tell me about it, and we can discuss MMA, WM, and RAS! 8-) The reason I posted in this thread is that JWR mentioned that my strategy supports a 6% real, inflation adjusted rate of withdrawal, and I wanted to post the specific numbers that supports that statement. To use common vernacular, my almost 11% yield portfolio supports a 4+7, 5+6, 6+5, 7+4, and 8+3 rates of withdrawal during retirement, without touching capital, as one must do for a 4+3 rate of withdrawal from a 1.75% yield market portfolio. In fact, apply all 4 of JWRs rules to my portfolio!
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