Governor: "..What evidence do you have that we are in a recession?  Or that inflation has been under counted."

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The obvious answer re inflation is for you to trust the evidence of your own eyes (after you pull them away from Faux News Network).   Go to the store check the prices.   Go fill up your gas tank. Look at the prices. Look at the premiums you are paying for health insurance.   The evidence is the empirical behavior of prices,  on the ground.   As to recession, that is a question of GDP growth, which in turn is dependent on govt-reported inflation.   Its simple arithmatic:  Start with bad numbers and all numbers derived from the incorrect number are also incorrect. 

The old question:  "If a tree falls down in a forest and no one sees it fall, did it?"    The retort of yourself and EagleT seems to be:  "That depends.  What does Pres. Bush want me to say."

If the evidence of your own eyes is insufficient,   try this link:

 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843%2D69B4%2D4C0C%2D92CE%2DB835D9907945%7D

The full article it refers to is worth a read, especially for those who think they should trust the Govt economic statistics. It can be found in the May 2008 Harpers magazine.

Yikes...  careful, there may not be enough tin foil on your head!  They are coming for you.... 

I like how Fox is the Faux news network when they have the most accurate reporting, per Clinton and several other Dems, of the presidential race.  Perhaps you should turn your eyes away from the looney leftist sites like Daily Kos or MSNBC where they spew the real fake news.  Is CBS a fake news channel?  I seem to remember them making up stories of Bush and getting caught, perhaps helping him get re-elected, yet Fox is the fake one.  GET REAL! 

Second, inflation being high, which it is, doesnt mean we are in a recession.  Two consecutive quarters of negative growth does.  We had a real rate of +0.6% in the first quarter.  Thats after inflation.  Thus, its not possible to be in a recession.  Let me guess, the numbers were real and could be trusted in the 90's, just up until Jan of 2001.  RIGHT?

PS.  Harpers is another FAUX news magazine!!

Gov: " inflation being high, which it is, doesnt mean we are in a recession."

Actually, it kinda DOES.   Consider:

When computing GDP growth, the govt tallies its spending/production numbers to come up with a nominal GDP figure.. It  then deflates/decreases/adjusts  that number, to remove the effect that inflation has on its calculation so as to report "real" GDP, vs GDP which is distorted by price increases.     So that if the govt's initial tally (prior to them deflating the number) shows nominal  1.0% GDP, but their phony inflation shows only 0.4%, then "real" GDP computes to 0.6% "real GDP growth".   But if real inflation is 3%, then GDP growth would be a negative (2%) [i.e. nominal 1% GDP LESS 3% inflation).

The phony CPI/PPI numbers are the fulcrum that the govt uses to show that "growth" continues, despite the reality we see before our own eyes.

And EagleT thought I was engaged in 'faith based economics".  Sheesh.

pining4Lenore:

Governor: "..What evidence do you have that we are in a recession?  Or that inflation has been under counted."

-----------------

The obvious answer re inflation is for you to trust the evidence of your own eyes (after you pull them away from Faux News Network).   Go to the store check the prices.   Go fill up your gas tank. Look at the prices. Look at the premiums you are paying for health insurance.   The evidence is the empirical behavior of prices,  on the ground.   As to recession, that is a question of GDP growth, which in turn is dependent on govt-reported inflation.   Its simple arithmatic:  Start with bad numbers and all numbers derived from the incorrect number are also incorrect. 

The old question:  "If a tree falls down in a forest and no one sees it fall, did it?"    The retort of yourself and EagleT seems to be:  "That depends.  What does Pres. Bush want me to say."

If the evidence of your own eyes is insufficient,   try this link:

 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843%2D69B4%2D4C0C%2D92CE%2DB835D9907945%7D

 

The full article it refers to is worth a read, especially for those who think they should trust the Govt economic statistics. It can be found in the May 2008 Harpers magazine.

 

 

inflation?

Guv: "You are (engaging in faith-based economics) since you are just pulling the fact that the CPI is phony out of you a_s_s."

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No Guv, I am suggesting you utilize empirical evidence, and your own grey matter to deduce a small truth.      You asked for evidence.   Its right there.   You think the evidence is no good because it conflicts with what the Govt tells you to believe.

Ignore the reality that you (and the rest of us) experience as you like.    Don't exercise your grey matter if you choose. Accept the govt stats as if they are written by the finger of God.  Your choice.

Go invest in some wonderful 10-year treasury bonds (Why worry, there IS no inflation!)

Who said there was no inflation?  I did not.  I wrote this two posts ago."Second, inflation being high, which it is, doesnt mean we are in a recession. "

The govt certainly did not.  In fact, just today, your govt (which is apparently telling you something different) came out with wholesale inflation that rose 0.4% in April, twice what was expected.  Now, that is significantly less than March's 1.1% number, but historically speaking, is very high. 

The reality is, prices are rising because of oil costs and food input costs.  However, it is being coupled with a broader economic slowdown which is helping (not much) to slow the rate of inflation as consumers spend less. 

Yes, the prices of many things are going up.  But just because you dont like the president, doesnt confirm your dreams of his administration faking all economic news.  

Gov: "..But just because you dont like the president, doesnt confirm your dreams of his administration faking all economic news. "

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Guv, right back at you -- just becasue you like Pres doesn't mean it is scrupulous by telling the American people the truth.     As to the CPI, GDP (and other govt stats, including unemployment) being manipulated, I don't say Bush started this.  He simply took the crap methodologies in place from legacy administrations, and "ran with it".  Well, MAYBE that is all he did.

As to recession or not, as I have laid out for you before, if CPI is UNDER-stating inflation, then GDP growth is OVER-stated. That is just how the math works out.  And if inflation is UNDERSTATED, by say, 1% (easily the case, IMO) then GDP was negative in Q1.