Vanbookie,

When you subscribe to the Dan Wiener newsletter, they have a wonderful forum where you can discuss anything you want about mutual funds without all the criticism you will  get on this forum. Many of the posters on this forum also post on Dan Wieners forum. You will find everyone  on there very polite and helpful. This diehard forum is an  Index forum and thats all they want to discuss. Hope this helps.

Well Andy, I'll admit we can't compete with your new forum when it comes to timely topics like the "optimum functioning of the sphincter muscles", or "how many mistresses can I afford", but then my mama always told me that its quality not quantity that counts.

I made a post yesterday asking about the Florida LT Tax Exempt Bond fund.  I got three answers in 35 minutes, but the post was down  about 60 on the list in an hour.  Two of the answers were to the effect "Why does FL have a tax exempt fund?", the other from Mel was helpful.  Quantity, not quality.

So while we may be more like a small town here instead of an impersonal big city, at least each of our 5 responses are unique and not "me too" pile ons.

I'd say about 3500 of the posters there have read the "5 good books" and can't wait to show their stuff.  Not to say that I don't read there each day, but it is harder and harder to wade through the froth to get to your "pearls" :o}

best,

Bill

 

 

vanbookie:

I am new to this forum.  I have some familarity with Vanguard but no indepth knowledge of the best performing funds.  ........  Can i do just as well on my own with the advice offered here, or on the Boglehead board, and with advice from the trade rags? 

As a multiple year subscriber, I feel qualified (but subscriber=biased) to answer.  The newsletter was extremely valuable in the beginning.  I, too, lacked indepth knowledge of the various funds and I gained knowledge of the active funds that I was unable to attain elsewhere.

If you follow the advice here, or on the Boglehead board, you are likely to do "just as well" and likely better than following the newsletter.  However, if you are considering the trade rags as a major source of advice, I think you would be better off with the newsletter.

Paul

 

Thanks for your question, which is currently on my mind also (it is one of the reasons I joined this forum about a week ago). Very thoughtful and helpful replies so far, let me throw in my $.02 as my first post.

My 70 year old father-in-law, who does not use computers, is a subscriber to the Wiener Newsletter and has used it as just one of his guides for the past couple of years of successful investing [i.e. during the recently ended bull market].  He lent me his copies of the Dec 2007 through April 2008 newsletters last week.

As a newbie investor - I've been passively investing in S+P 500 Index funds for about a decade, but recently decided to learn more by reading Bogle and others - here are my opinions/impressions on the Weiner newsletter, based on those five recent issues :

Out of the 16 pages, about 4-5 are performance charts for all Vanguard funds (information available elsewhere for free) and one page for the example Wiener portfolios.  Each newsletter also has a couple blurbs promoting DW and what he is selling or where he is speaking.

Each newsletter has an "interview" with a Vanguard Fund manager or other investment figure in a style which I would describe as fawning. There are usually two cover articles on what DW thinks is going on in the financial world; or articles on general topics like IRAs, etc., which are better written - but also information available elsewhere, often for free.

In addition to promoting his diversified portfolios [with, as noted already, sometimes unavailable closed funds], DW promotes "Hot Hands" funds which are actively managed funds which have performed well in the recent past. This strategy is called momentum investing. I am currently reading "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", by Professor Burton Malkiel, which is very critical of this strategy [and many others].

I am sure that the fans of DW here can provide you with some other titles to back him up!

Along with what I consider an ingratiating style, DW does not appear to be consistent to me. He downplays his misses while trumpeting how clever "you and I" are when he is successful.  In the Feb 2008 newsletter he cited Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo, one of the outside fund management companies used by Vanguard, in his defense of his "Hot hands" strategy, only to report in the very next newsletter that GMO got fired by Vanguard.

Based on the almost half year's worth of newsletters I have read, my advice to you is to

1) Use Morningstar for fund research,

2) Spend your money on some of the excellent books on investing recommended here.  I have recently bought a half dozen of the most recommended (Bogle on mutual funds, Bernstein on allocation, Bogleheads guide, Morningstar books, etc.) for under $99.

3) Ask questions and read the educational posts on here.

4) One of my next projects is to research the Morningstar Vanguard Family Funds newsletter. (I have not yet tried searching for opinions of that here, does anyone care to bite the hand that feeds us?)   ;-)

 

 

 

 

 

JimC1004:

I am sure that the fans of DW here can provide you with some other titles to back him up!

I think most of your points are certainly legitimate ones.

Once again, I don't think that the newsletter is a "magic  bullet."  It is simply one of many ways to invest in a portfolio of Vanguard funds.  Put simply, if the dopiest thing an investor does is subscribe to a newsletter which encourages that investor to buy and hold a diversified portfolio of low-cost Vanguard funds, that investor is very lucky.

An investor can read a few books, and construct a portfolio as good as any professional.  Whether the investor will do so is the question.  I have a library of books from the Diehard reading list to lend to my employees, but few will read them.

Back to the OP:  If he will read the books, he does not need the newsletter.  If he won't read the books, he should buy the newsletter.

Petrocelli

Apostle Bill,

excuse me your holiness, this humble disciple is bit confused ..
some time back while another poster (I think it was ccassel) argued
about the undisputed record of DW growth portfolio, your response was,
it was due to a one lucky call, VGHCX during the last bear market...
I followed the path you showed me and  canceled my $75 check to DW.
Tell me, what this humble servant need to do now, send another check
to DW expecting another lucky call ?

I have subscribed to the newsletter for 1 and a half years. On a scale of 1 to 10, for me it is a 3. There is usually an article or two of more than passing interest worth reading. I do not follow the portfolios - they don't look especially unique or insightful. Two or three pages of each issue are devoted to performance figures which can be obtained anywhere. The forum is a fool's paradise - a handful of blowhards regularly preach to a larger group of credulous acolytes. Tune in for comic relief only! Overall, it is marginally worth it to me, mainly for an alternate view of Vanguard funds.  

philip:

Apostle Bill,

excuse me your holiness, this humble disciple is bit confused ..
some time back while another poster (I think it was ccassel) argued
about the undisputed record of DW growth portfolio, your response was,
it was due to a one lucky call, VGHCX during the last bear market...
I followed the path you showed me and  canceled my $75 check to DW.
Tell me, what this humble servant need to do now, send another check
to DW expecting another lucky call ?

I pointed out on this thread that one poster was using 4 1/2 months of data to make a point and that the long term record was different.

My opinion remains that putting a huge amount of VGHCX into a portfolio in 2000 was very lucky call that could have just as easily gone south. It didn't and the record is what it is.  We don't know the future.

As a past subscriber to DW's newsletter, my opinion is that I personally don't need it. I have not suggested to anyone to buy it, on this thread or any other to my knowledge. 

If you canceled based on my statement about a lucky call, you were following a false prophet, as I'm just a guy with a keyboard and internet access ( but without the mansion, Cedes, season tickets to the Laker's, or the huge collection of girly web sites)

best,

Bill

JimC1004:

In addition to promoting his diversified portfolios [with, as noted already, sometimes unavailable closed funds], DW promotes "Hot Hands" funds which are actively managed funds which have performed well in the recent past. This strategy is called momentum investing. I am currently reading "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", by Professor Burton Malkiel, which is very critical of this strategy [and many others].

I am sure that the fans of DW here can provide you with some other titles to back him up!

Here you go: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1455

Look at "Dissecting Anomolies".  They don't endorse "hot hands" or anything alone those lines, but acknowledge its existence.

Malkiel might be critical of this strategy (momentum investing in general, but not specifically Hot Hands), but he does present some diverging viewpoints.  "Random Walk" is his popular viewpoint.  But he has also written books on Emerging Markets and China.  Both are a departure from "Random Walk".   Its not that I disagree with any of his viewpoints, just at face value they are polar opposites.

 

Paul