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Q&A With Jill Evans, Co-Manager, Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund
Ted-Fundalarm 05-01-2008, 2:17 AM | Post #2513454 |  54 Replies
1  

FYI: Regards,

Ted

P.S. How have your been Taylor ?

 

http://www.123jump.com/fundpdf/481.pdf

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Re: Cliff
TaylorZR 05-02-2008, 5:37 PM | Post #2514062
0  

Helmut, you know we love ya,  but is there any potential in the near future you're going to eventually stop wasting people's time about this.........

HEY, how about just saying the truth...... "I'm Helmut, and I've bEEN wrong"............

t

Re: ElLobo & Cliff
statsguy 05-02-2008, 6:22 PM | Post #2514080
0  
TaylorZR:

Here are some figures:
from 10/6/2003 to 4/22/2008
initial investment of $10,000
with 100% of dividends taken in cash: 
present value:
ADVDX-$10,577 
total dividend payout:
$6,341

t

I interpretted Helmut's question as meaning data without a comparison provide no information, or at best an incomplete answer.  Having no idea how this would turn out I decided to take a Diehard approach.  Lets invest our $10K in VIMSX (Vanguard Midcap Index) and taken income similar in amounts to ADVDX and see what happens. I figure that 5.5 years is too short for this kind of analysis but I was curious.

Here are some figures for VIMSX (Midcap Index)
from 10/6/2003 to 4/22/2008
initial investment of $10,000
with 100% of dividends taken in cash: 
present value as of today 
VIMSX - $10,065.10
total cash taken out
6325.58

The index and ADVDX behave very similarly after 5.5 years.  I still do not see what the dividend capture techniques of ADVDX bought.   I believe that spending yield is better than spending shares... but I am not yet a believer in ADVDX because I do not think there is a sustainable method of taking 14% income from a portfolio.

Here are the details

DATE      NAV  Shares  DIV     Income   Sold

2003Oct6  12.18  821  

2003Dec                0.122     100.16

2004Oct6  14.09  738            1169.47  83

2004Dec                0.161     118.82

2005Oct6  16.61  669            1146.09  69

2005Dec                0.191     127.78

2006Oct6  18.83  608            1148.63  61

2006Dec                0.247     150.18

2007Mar                0.005       3.04

2007Oct6  22.53  558            1116.50  50

2007Dec                0.262     146.20

2008Mar                0.004       2.23

2008Apr22 19.58  502            1096.48  56

502 shares at 20.05 are worth 1065 today.

Stats

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Re: ElLobo & Cliff
silverking 05-02-2008, 7:24 PM | Post #2514097
0  

Helmut !

 There are NO short term cap. gains with ADVDX. You need more research and less carping. All income is taxed at 15% max for dividends.......

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Re: Cliff
Arb-Alot 05-02-2008, 7:37 PM | Post #2514103
2  

It seems that the conclusion of this discussion is that  ADVDX does an OK job of  sustaining one's principal, but it does not provide much capital appreciation. The trade-off is that you get a pretty good tax efficient distribution stream. For some people who need a source of income, ADVDX may be a reasonable part of a person's portfolio.

David

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Re: Q&A With Jill Evans, Co-Manager, Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund
ElLobo 05-02-2008, 8:20 PM | Post #2514123
1  

Cliff,

"Much more in common than differences.  But I suppose one other fundamental difference between ADVDX and my strategy is that they are required to mark to market every day to keep score.  I don't have to do that and can take a different point of view.  But that's another story."

My thoughts exactly.

The interview talked about two subject that we have discussed quite frequently here.  The first, asset selection (what to buy and why).  The second, money management (when to buy and sell).

In terms of the first subject (what to buy), one difference between ADVDX and I is that dividend GROWTH is so much less important to me then it is to ADVDX.  But I see similarities between ADVDX and Josh Peter's view of dividend investing.  For example, Josh talks about return in terms of growth, but he isn't talking about share price growth, he's looking at dividend growth.  Remember, for him, return is the sum of current dividend plus dividend growth rate.

Jill gave her criteria for smallest dividend she would accept:

"For example, Monsanto, the corn producer, has about a 0.58% dividend yield but we won’t go much lower than that unless we felt that there was a fantastic growth opportunity."

Not me.  My yield screen minimum is 6%.

Next, she says that the Alpine team follows closely about 200 stocks.  Furthermore: "We have rarely ever had a holding more than 3% of the portfolio. We are diversified in our portfolio so our top ten holdings consist of approximately 20% of the portfolio. We usually keep our holding allocation below 2.5% at the most and the ones that are above 2.5% are generally the ones with a high dividend yield."

Similar to what I do (with individual stocks).  But I don't follow 200 stocks!

"To be a good investor, you have to be able to sell things. We don’t fall in love with names and if the story changes, we just sell and move on to find better opportunities."

Good advice indeed!

I was struck by their 30-40% holding in foreign stocks.  The reasons were twofold.  First, typically higher yields.  Next, typically yearly dividend distributions.  Which leads to money management.

ADVDX uses 3 techniques (buy & hold, dividend capture, special dividends).  I don't do the second or third strategies.  Of those last two, the special dividend strategy is the one that troubles me the most (but not enough to avoid going with the Alpine team).  The dividend capture strategy is the most straightforward one to understand, and one that generates the most discussions around here.

Basically, dividend capture allows ADVDX management to increase the yield received from a given amount of investible cash by a (theoretical) 50% (for stocks paying quarterly dividends.  More importantly, for stocks paying yearly dividends, the increase is 6 fold.  That is, if you have 6 companies (typically foreign), each paying a 2.5% dividend, it's possible to 'capture' a yield of 15% from those 6 (15% is 6 times 2.5%).

Finally, there was NO discussion of sector concentration, which seems to be important to some people.

Anyhow, those are a few of my thoughts.  I was really struck by the candor expressed by Ms. Evans as to how, and why, they do things.

Re: ElLobo & Cliff
WesCb 05-02-2008, 8:23 PM | Post #2514125
0  

"I believe that spending yield is better than spending shares...but I am not yet a believer in ADVDX because I do not think there is a sustainable method of taking 14% income from a portfolio." 

 

There's no rule that the entire yield has to be taken without reinvesting part of it back into the fund.The thing a big yield does as far as I'm concerned is provide a wide range of options.-wes

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Re: ElLobo & Cliff
StarHBre 05-02-2008, 9:04 PM | Post #2514143
0  
silverking:

Helmut !

 There are NO short term cap. gains with ADVDX. You need more research and less carping. All income is taxed at 15% max for dividends.......

Siverking,

You missed my point.  The only tax advantage ADVDX has is the conversion of short term capital gains to qualified dividends.

My point was that most dividend paying mutual funds have a low turnover and normally hold a stock more than one year so the advantage ADVDX holds by converting ST CG into dividends is insignificant. 

helmut 

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Re: ElLobo & Cliff
Gregory 05-02-2008, 9:18 PM | Post #2514149
0  
statsguy:
TaylorZR:

Here are some figures:
from 10/6/2003 to 4/22/2008
initial investment of $10,000
with 100% of dividends taken in cash: 
present value:
ADVDX-$10,577 
total dividend payout:
$6,341

t

I interpretted Helmut's question as meaning data without a comparison provide no information, or at best an incomplete answer.  Having no idea how this would turn out I decided to take a Diehard approach.  Lets invest our $10K in VIMSX (Vanguard Midcap Index) and taken income similar in amounts to ADVDX and see what happens. I figure that 5.5 years is too short for this kind of analysis but I was curious.

Here are some figures for VIMSX (Midcap Index)
from 10/6/2003 to 4/22/2008
initial investment of $10,000
with 100% of dividends taken in cash: 
present value as of today 
VIMSX - $10,065.10
total cash taken out
6325.58

The index and ADVDX behave very similarly after 5.5 years.  I still do not see what the dividend capture techniques of ADVDX bought.   I believe that spending yield is better than spending shares... but I am not yet a believer in ADVDX because I do not think there is a sustainable method of taking 14% income from a portfolio.

Here are the details

DATE      NAV  Shares  DIV     Income   Sold

2003Oct6  12.18  821  

2003Dec                0.122     100.16

2004Oct6  14.09  738            1169.47  83

2004Dec                0.161     118.82

2005Oct6  16.61  669            1146.09  69

2005Dec                0.191     127.78

2006Oct6  18.83  608            1148.63  61

2006Dec                0.247     150.18

2007Mar                0.005       3.04

2007Oct6  22.53  558            1116.50  50

2007Dec                0.262     146.20

2008Mar                0.004       2.23

2008Apr22 19.58  502            1096.48  56

502 shares at 20.05 are worth 1065 today.

Stats

 

Stats, thanks for the data.  I'm sure it took some time to put together.

Maybe someday we'll see similar data for SDY, DVY and VYM, once they've had some more years under their belts.

Greg

 

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Re: ElLobo & Cliff
meyerr 05-03-2008, 7:34 AM | Post #2514221
1  

Helmut,

For the record I don't own ADVDX and would not, at the present time, solely b/c of my portfolio and investing needs and composition.  I use CEF's for the role that I perceive ADVDX as filling and although that is probably a riskier alternative, it's the model I've established and am comfortable with.

As I read your rationale and reasoning, the thing that struck me was that you were describing  value investing:

 most dividend investors try to find dividend stocks that are undervalued and enjoy the dividend until the market realizes its value.

This is a label that fits me and a role I'm comfortable with.  I can identify a bargain but I know that I have trouble with the sell part of the discipline.  As Jill Evans said in her interview:

"To be a good investor, you have to be able to sell things. We don’t fall in love with names and if the story changes, we just sell and move on to find better opportunities."

If I did not have the patience and the willingness to wait out NAV volatility, I could see ADVDX filling that role for me.

The other thoughts that flew into my off kilter brain as I read this discussion were Callan periodic tables and the differences between Growth and Value investing and thoughts of momentum investing and managers.  I believe that for inherent, underlying personality reasons, most investors are much more comfortable in one camp or another.  I even acknowledge that momentum investing , particularly utilizing sector rotations is a viable option.  There is more than one road to Dublin.

I think ADVDX may be the momentum, growth face of dividend investing and that they are applying that discipline and those techniques to value stocks and dividend investing.  Just as we design an AA to encompass all market segments, perhaps the ways and techniques we use for dividend and income could use some additional or alternative methods?

Roberta 

 

Re: ElLobo & Cliff
TaylorZR 05-03-2008, 7:38 AM | Post #2514222
0  

As Stats said:

"I believe that spending yield is better than spending shares"............

He's right......

Spending down shares (eating your own portfolio ,the phony method of comparison used in the above example) as opposed to simply taking the income stream from one's mutual funds in retirement can be much more dangerous over time than just taking income and maintaining ownership of y