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Dividends and baby boomers................
bilperk 05-09-2008, 7:27 AM | Post #2516049 |  27 Replies
1  

One of the big things looming on the horizon is the retirement of the 30 million baby boomers.  Some have called this an impending crisis for the financial markets and the economy.  The main reason is that baby boomers are seen as a potential net sellers of assets with not enough workers left to sell to.  On the economic side, in addition to the problem "too many sellers, not enough buyers" would cause, there also is the problem of too many consumers and not enough producers.

The second problem has a solution according to Siegel, which is increased productivity of emerging nations like China and India to produce the goods and services we need.

But I'm more intrigued by the first problem.  If TR investors try to sell more shares to fund their retirements than there are buyers, that will drive the price down which will lead to more selling, which will lead to ever lower prices, which will lead.....well, you get the idea.

On the other hand, those living off dividends and interest don't have to sell anything to fund their retirements.  If enough boomers become dividend investors, there will be a natural equilibrium of buyers and sellers, despite the huge difference in numbers of investors.  This could push the demand for dividends up as this becomes recognized by the finance community, causing pressure on companies to raise dividends and dividend growth where possible.  We could even get to a point where there are less sellers than buyers which would cause the price to rise for dividend stocks while the payouts rise.

Copie would become a multi-millionaire and El Lobo would own all of Washington State and everything in Oregon west of the Cascades :o}

best,

Bill

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Re: Wes
ElLobo 05-12-2008, 5:20 AM | Post #2516958
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July-45 checking in here, officially missing the boomer generation by less then a month!

"You can retire on 3.9% dividend. There are those who can't. And I think herein lies the real basis for a lot of the differences in methodology with dividend investing. Concern for higher yield is always going to be partly dictated by need."

Ultimately, you withdraw and spend what you need to withdraw and spend.  At the point in time that you do so, you know whether you are withdrawing your asset base, your seed corn, your principal, your capital, or the income that your asset base, your seed corn, your principal, your capital has generated.  Spend more then the income during the year and you are spending down your asset base.

Earnings affect dividends.  Earnings growth/decline affect dividend growth/decline, as well as share price growth/decline.  It's safer to limit your spending to the income that your portfolio generates.

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Re: Wes
StarHBre 05-12-2008, 2:58 PM | Post #2517138
1  

ElLobo,

It's safer to limit your spending to the income that your portfolio generates.

 

Does this mean that you only harvest .25% from your holding in BLU?

 

helmut

 

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Re: Wes
JWR1945a 05-12-2008, 3:13 PM | Post #2517147
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Does this mean that you only harvest .25% from your holding in BLU?

How in the world did you come up with this number? Not from what ElLobo wrote.

Have fun.

John Walter Russell 

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Re: Wes
StarHBre 05-12-2008, 3:52 PM | Post #2517155
1  
JWR1945a:

Does this mean that you only harvest .25% from your holding in BLU?

How in the world did you come up with this number? Not from what ElLobo wrote.

Have fun.

John Walter Russell 

John,

.25% is the income yield for BLU as reported by CEFA. The distribution yield is 11.56%.

helmut 

 

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Re: Wes
WesCb 05-12-2008, 4:17 PM | Post #2517164
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"Just because an investor opts for higher yielding investments does not guarantee more long-term income."

Of course not.I never said it did.

 

 "CWGIX has had an average annul total return of 14.42% for fifteen years.By how much could have CWGIX improved their returns or lessened volatility by raising their yield using a third of its portfolio for dividend capture?Would the managers have made the capital appreciation any safer by selling assets internally to fund a distribution yield through a managed distribution plan?Would leverage have created higher returns over a 15-yearf period?
Would any of these tactics increase the combined earnings of the stocks held by CWGIX?"

Who knows?I would guess that it wouldn't have increased it's total return and may even have lowered it.But we'll never know what kind of payout it may have produced.   : )

-wes

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Re: George Bush = Socialist Comrade
retired at 48 05-17-2008, 9:28 PM | Post #2519036
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Hi bilperk

I agree with the concern of your OP, but I haven't seen any mention yet of the following three points:

First, I think the reallocation telltale has shown up more in bonds than stocks.  I was lucky to retire 15 years ago with very high bond percentage yields available.  Some I locked in for 30 years.  As boomers now near retirement, their whole life they heard "convert to more bonds, and reap the yields."  Well, those yields are now history.  Yet the reallocations are underway.  I'm not sure many retirees realize how meager bond yields are, now.  Perhaps even underwater to true inflation.  Perhaps almost a bubble in bonds.  The potential for real loss exists in long term bonds.

Regarding stocks, the boomers are not being forced out of equities, but all the teachings and literature and advisors tell them to reduce equity allocations.  So they are doing it.  I've read some studies, like Seigel who thinks foreigners will pick up all the selling slack, but there is no good evidence yet to back this up. And there may be a subtle, beneficial, shift from growth to dividend paying stocks, which for the first time in decades are giving bonds competition re yield.

Lastly, and importantly, what is one to do.  Here's my take.  It doesn't matter if stock returns are less than the past decades, because there is no real growth alternative to beat it.  Stocks are a call on the underlying businesses, and their attendant growth and dividend increases, in whatever the currency is at the time.  So if the return is only 6% for the next decade or two, so be it.  That's why I support the direction of those investing for corporate dividends and companies which have good prospects of increasing dividends annually.  And if we have massive inflation, stocks will, in the long run, be the things to own.

Just some thoughts  (am I on the wrong forum? How did I get over here?)

retired at 48

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The best kept secret! Shhhhhh!
hurleyhuckster 05-17-2008, 10:27 PM | Post #2519056
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Hi again retired/48,

You be on the right forum!

I tried to steer you here once before, you finally made it :o)

Glad to see you here and think you have much to offer.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, stick around wont you?

Brian

Re: The best kept secret! Shhhhhh!
retired at 48 05-18-2008, 12:07 AM | Post #2519077
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Hi Brian...I'm expanding my horizons.  Thanks for your support. 

 retired at 48

Re: The best kept secret! Shhhhhh!
bilperk 05-18-2008, 6:10 AM | Post #2519096
0  
retired at 48:

Hi Brian...I'm expanding my horizons.  Thanks for your support. 

 retired at 48

Hi 48,

This is a nice forum where everyone respects each others investment style and where we are able to challenge each other without rancor.  While most here believe their approach is best, they don't feel it necessary to convert everyone else.

Thanks for your points on the OP.

best,

Bill

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Re: The best kept secret! Shhhhhh!
ElLobo 05-18-2008, 6:14 AM | Post #2519097
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Bill,

Good Morning!

"While most here believe their approach is best, they don't feel it necessary to convert everyone else."

There's a difference between 'beliefs' and 'feelings'.

I KNOW my approach is best, and WILL eventually convert you!

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande!

Re: The best kept secret! Shhhhhh!
bilperk 05-18-2008, 7:55 AM | Post #2519112
0  

Good Morning to you El,

 

If your approach was so good, you wouldn't be up at 4:30 in the morning posting on M* trying to convince me :o}

best,

Bill

Re: The best kept secret! Shhhhhh!
retired at 48 05-18-2008, 9:05 AM | Post #2519132
0  
bilperk:
retired at 48:

Hi Brian...I'm expanding my horizons.  Thanks for your support. 

 retired at 48

Hi 48,

This is a nice forum where everyone respects each others investment style and where we are able to challenge each other without rancor.  While most here believe their approach is best, they don't feel it necessary to convert everyone else.

Thanks for your points on the OP.

best,

Bill

Hi Bill...thanks for your support.  I chose your posting to make my first response post on this forum, because I knew the replies would be civil.  I have enjoyed your posts elsewhere, and usually stop my mouse whenever I see "bilperk". 

BTW, Mel Lindauer linked us with the following words, quote:

There are lots of folks here (Diehards F.) who invest in managed funds, and they're certainly welcome here. However, they have reasons for doing what they do, and they're able to clearly state and explain why and how they handle their investments when someone asks. A few examples of Diehards who post here on a regular basis that don't walk the Diehards line include Billperk, Petrocelli and Retired@48. Each marches to a different drummer, but they're able to cleary explain why/how they invest the way they do when asked. ...Mel L. 

 I'm now just repositioning to Saratoga, upstate NY, home of horseracing, ballet, polo and other fine southern gentlemen activities.

R48

 

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