I don't mind jumping out. I did that with real estate last year in the first quarter. I lost $500 and jumped right into FNARX etc. I got chastised by the ones that have their own site now that I would not get that $500 back. Well I got that $500 back many times over. So if FNARX drops over my comfort level I will bail out like I did the other day with it and then got back in. My 457 plan does not charge for trading out FNARX as long as I hold it 29 days. Half of it I have held for a year so I can trade out half wihout a penalty. Actually the penalty is .075%.

 erryl, let us know when you are bailing out so that we can all take a look.

thanks

Gary

People who buy sector funds at Fidelity may tend to "trade" sector funds due to its 30 day holding period. There was a newsletter for sector fund trade, I tried and gave up. It kept me too busy. Furthermore, I noticed many times that I ended up buying and selling same sector funds within a year, and felt that kind of "not right" for me. So today, I buy funds for the hope of long term hold and try to look at it from 5000 feet above rather than 100 feet above (I can't do 50000 feet high observation, however).

Today, my largest holding is NR/PM, and have three funds one of which is FNARX. Two others are non-Fido funds and am keeping for long term. As a matter of fact, having non-Fido funds sort of "discourages" me to do trading and it offers some "benefit" for me. Due to some flexibility in trading Fido sector funds, someday I could rotate FNARX but I prefer not to. I have "17% drop bound" on a fund NAV and then may trigger "sell". Once a fund drops 17%, it would take 20% gain to get back to where it was. I also trade/rotate same kinds when the I am holding become less favarable.

In any case, according to S&P, NR related is about 26%, a half in energy and a half in material. I am overweight in NR today. And most of my funds are "real", except one fund in financial/exchange. 

Happy invesing. Last week was a great week for those who were in the market. FWIW  KM 

I don't think that there is anything wrong with letting a winner run.  My advice is to take some profits when it stops winning.  You may not have enough conviction that the run is over to sell all of the position, but it is time to stop being over-weight.

When I first bought a gold fund... it has to have been 3 years (or so) ago... I thought it would be a trade (I hadn't owned a gold fund for a decade)... and I am sure that some traders have traded in and out of it many times since I first bought it.  I have been holding through a remarkable secular bull market.

Energy will probably be the same thing.  It could be a sector that stays hot for a year or two, but it could also be the best sector investment for a decade... it has to beat out REIT's and gold, though. 

In the late 90's, I was over-weighted tech... but not nearly like the Janus folks - the best fund family according to some for half a decade.  I own very little today.  A few years ago, I let my REIT holdings get over-weight... it too had a great run for 3-5 years.  Today, I still have some - about 4%, but less than half what I had at the peak.

Today, I am over-weight in energy.  Given the fundamentals, I will be over-weight for at least a few years, it could be longer!

Gary, I probably won't be the first one at the exit door.  I have tried to stay fairly passive in my sector bets and not be constantly trading them.  I do believe, though, that you need to be able to walk away from over-weight sector positions.  If you tend to fall in love with your investments or look at your portfolio once a year (or less), then this is no place for you (the figurative "you") to have an over-weight position.  Sectors have to be traded... the frequency of the trades is one of investment style.  If you are not a trader, limit your pure sector bets to 5% of your portfolio and enforce that limit. 

I always talk about major changes in my portfolio, but I don't make many specific buy/sell recommendations based on my personal portfolio.  I really do try to customize my advice to the requestor, and not just advise everyone to do what I do.  That would be pretty poor advice imho.  If I post "Is it over for energy?", then you want to pay attention.  For example, my personal portfolio has changed in the last year (a lot).  I have begun buying individual stocks and sector ETF's/CEF's quite a bit... I have reduced my reliance on mutual funds.  I've talked about what I see as being the weaknesses of mutual funds.  You haven't heard me talk about the specifics much.  It would be wrong for anyone to go out and just buy the stocks I discuss here. Would if I sell it and forget to tell everyone...

erryl

I'm a market watching junkie. I check the markets and corresponding etf's all day long. I don't trade too often. My main reason is if I wanted to use boring I would buy Life cycle funds and be done with it. The corresponding life cycle fund (Vanguard 2025) is down about a half point this year but I am ahead 1 per cent all due to FNARX and FICDX. As long as I stay ahead of the life cycle fund that has about the same bond/equity then I will continue to be active.

I appreciate your clarification on sector funds but if I do hear erryl say dump energy....

 Gary

"...  For example, my personal portfolio has changed in the last year (a lot).  I have begun buying individual stocks and sector ETF's/CEF's quite a bit... I have reduced my reliance on mutual funds."

Erryl - I have been having a similar change in perspective - so it's good to hear others of the same mindset. What appealed to me about ETF's is the relative ease of getting in and out of them, and the growing diverisity of options. Also, because of the difference in the transaction, one can enter a stop loss at the time of purchase with no penalties other than a commission should the fund underperform. And, of course, where performance is good, one can 'reset' the stop loss higher as the value increases. Performance wise, I'm seeing very good results being turned in by ETF's as well.

Never having been one to like index funds, I am not extremely fond of ETF's... but I like them for sector investments or trades.  I own some GLD and I think that GLD/SLV are great ways to own the metals.  I have no problems with an ETF like TIP... there is little room for a manager if you want to buy a "commodity" like TIPs.

I still think that a manager can add value for many long term investments... for example, I own value funds and gold managed funds instead of GDX. 

erryl

Again FEMKX and FNARX up above the rest of the market. Well tomorrow may be a different matter.

 Gary