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Any view on agriculture going forward? (DBA as possible investment)
nantucket9 01-15-2008, 5:48 PM | Post #2476837 |  18 Replies
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Am thinking of buying DBA, but it has had a great run. (DBA is about 25% each of corn, soy, wheat... something else)--good low cost way to play agriculture and it has minimal tax implications).

I am searching for small percent of holdings in DBA for uncorrelated asset move.

Any articles/insights into commodities going forward this year or into future?

 

Thanks.

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Re: Any view on agriculture going forward? (DBA as possible investment)
jagor 06-30-2008, 3:11 PM | Post #2534120
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I think DBA is great: it's one quarter each sugar, wheat, corn and soy futures.  Very easy to understand--you don't need an MBA to understand it.  Does anyone realisticaly think the worldwide demand for these four soft commodities is going to diminish anytime soon?

Plus, DBA is up +4.01% for the week, +16.83% for the month and +26.43% YTD.  What more do you want?

Jagor 

 


     
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Re: Any view on agriculture going forward? (DBA as possible investment)
Edmund_Dantes 06-30-2008, 4:26 PM | Post #2534152
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<<Any articles/insights into commodities going forward this year or into future?>>

--------------------------

Goldman Sachs is buying farmland as an investment.   I believe from having skimmed periodicals such as Barrons, that other institutional money is also.  That would suggest that they view the produce (literally) of that land to increase.

However,  commodities can move very sharply. Any position I would consider taking in them would be done over a period of time, not just plunking down the whole position on one day.    If you turn out to be right, your DCA action will still leave you with a tidy profit.  If you are wrong, you will presumably have a smaller loss.

I have no position in any commodities (other than some long-term positions in oil/oil stocks.)

 

 

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Re: Any view on agriculture going forward? (DBA as possible investment)
zwilnik 06-30-2008, 5:48 PM | Post #2534190
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Here's an alternative thought.  A while ago, I also decided to try commodities.  However, after checking & thinking, I ended up with DBC rather than DBA.  I also have MOO.  DBC has performed somewhat even better than DBA. 

We keep hearing of the "bubble" -- that the run on commodities can't last.  Last year, I purchased POT at about $90.00.  I got nervous at the last go-around about the "bubble" and sold at $180.00.  Now it's about $230.00.  Sure, nothing lasts forever, so I plan to keep a sharp eye on the "bubble", but ride it while I still can.

Zwilnik

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