LOL

I guess investors are the demographic they're going after.

Originally posted in thread: 215

Don't forget, WU is not just a US stock. People don't only immigrate to the US, they might also immigrate to Europe from, say, North Africa or the Middle East, and they'll still need to send money back.

Originally posted in thread: 215

the biggest chunk of their international business is US to Mexico.

Originally posted in thread: 215

How many economies in this world are cash economies? A majority, really. And those economies are fast becoming "cash rich".

Look at Africa and China and India.

Thanks for the investment idea. I am buying in on Monday.

Originally posted in thread: 215

They need to find growth other than the Mexico-US corridor.

Also from personal experience, people do not like the high transaction fees as well.

RML

Originally posted in thread: 215

an addendum to my earlier post. M*'s stockpicker newsletter runs two portfolios, tortoise and hare. tortiose is mainly mature blue-chips, and hare is smaller, faster-growing, and higher-risk companies. WU is in the tortoise. that means that M* thinks it will grow steadily, and is pretty safe from competition, but it's not the next Microsoft.

Originally posted in thread: 215

Western Union is in the Hare, not the Tortoise. That means that M* expects pretty high future growth. They do, however, rate WU as below average risk.

Originally posted in thread: 215

I am not confident about the growth prospects of western union. My reluctance is based on the following

1. Western Union business is largely concentrated on money transfers between US and latin america. Primarily the customer base is a low wage worker
a. who doesnt own a bank account or
b. lacks the know how to use other modes or
c. the recepient party doesnt own an account.

Their business i completely limited to this area. Any change in immigration policies or regulation will be a major risk factor

Africa may be a possibility. But exactly how many low end workers from africa cross the border to come here and work on low end jobs?

You can forget India and China. The immigrants from these countries are primarily higher skilled workers who know how to use internet transfers and the banking systems in these countries are very mature. They already have the ability to provide money to the recepients in mutliple modes.

Latin America:
If the banking environment improves in this area and becomes pervasive, I am not sure why anyone would pay the commisions being charged by WU currently.

Overall, I think internet banking will make this company outdated or atleast put a big crimp in the margin.

Just my thoughts.
Onemore!

Originally posted in thread: 215

Warren Buffett thinks WU is a very good investment. I would respect his judgement better than most others...

Originally posted in thread: 215

Just curious.

Originally posted in thread: 215

Not impressed. Microlending and cell phones?

Sounds far fetched to me. OTOH, if they keep using their free cash to repurchase shares, there stock could do okay.

Originally posted in thread: 215

don't laugh. Grameen Bank in Bangladesh has a cellphone program, Grameen Phone, in a joint venture with some Norweigan bank, Telenor. Grameen Phone earned about $96.3m last year. Grameen Bank contends the venture was set up with the last Telenor CEO, who had intended to give Grameen majority ownership within six years. They also contend that the current CEO has reneged because the venture is so profitable. I don't know how good a case Grameen has (personally, I'd rather they get the full share of Grameen Phone), but such ventures can be profitable.

of course, Grameen Bank is a nonprofit. Western Union would be doing this for profit.

Originally posted in thread: 215