Welcome! Please Log In
Go
Essentials Popular Topics
My Favorite Blogs Join Discuss to setup a list of your favorite blogs
Berkowitz and Byrne on Bargains
M*_Karin  06-26-2008, 3:00 PM | Post #2532808 |  3 Replies
16  

Bruce Berkowitz, manager of Fairholme FAIRX, and Susan Byrne, manager of WHG LargeCap Value WHGLX, are two of our favorite large-cap managers. Here is a play-by-play on some of the sectors and individual stocks that they talked about at the Morningstar Investment Conference this morning:

Energy
Byrne has been hanging on to oil & gas firm Apache APA for 6 or 7 years. Lately, she’s been trimming back that stake but still sees excellent value in the firm. Byrne has been stress-testing energy holdings by assuming major drops in oil prices, and as for natural gas-related firms falling a bit behind, she sees global demand pushing those prices up over time.

Berkowitz has been ignoring the energy-related headlines. He’s fine with oil prices staying high (but acknowledged that he’s been driving a lot less!). One of his main concerns in this sector is how easy it is for government to tax energy. He also commented on how Buffett is spending tens of millions on wind power.

Health Care
Berkowitz is looking to health care since it’s such a stressed-out area and because baby boomers are getting into Medicare. So, he’s become a big buyer of HMOs. He noted that some drug companies have done a horrible job on their capital allocation, and since the November election has caused a huge fear in the marketplace, he has been able to buy them at a big discount to cash flows. Regarding pharma, Berkowitz thinks that a lot of the big firms have been arrogant in their attitudes toward generics over the years. He’s seeing more joint ventures abroad and Indian firms being bought out. Essentially, he thinks that something has got to give because competition from generics is getting big.

Financials
Byrne is staying away! She commented that they know how investment banks are run in the back, but it’s a problem of evaluating their business models. Basically, what is the business model if the balance sheet is no longer there? Unattractive return on equity, which was very different in recent years, has been another reason that she’s stayed away. Byrne plans to wait for transparency and doesn’t think it’s time to buy the banks because we aren’t in the midst of the same old cyclical story.

Berkowitz explained that it’s almost impossible to know what some of these firms own, which has resulted in a loss of faith. To illustrate, he’s not certain whether JP Morgan JPM had to buy Bear Stearns because of counterparty risk. So, like Byrne, he’s been staying away from financials. As for housing and real estate, as long as the cash is there, he is is OK with investing.

Another area that Byrne and Berkowitz agree on is homebuilders. Bryne doesn’t want to deal with the risk of off-balance-sheet contingencies. As for Berkowitz, he doesn’t see the value in trying to comprehend their balance sheets or free cash flows. Plus as governments became bigger partners all around the world, he sees things getting complicated since everyone wants a piece of your ownership.

Berkshire Hathaway
Berkowitz has brought his hefty stake in Berkshire BRK.B down, in part guided by Buffett’s modest projections in terms of beating the S&P 500. He noted that a post-Buffett company wouldn’t be quite as good and that he would like to see a successor in place while Buffett is still there. He explained that property/casualty insurance is a tough business because the money you get in premiums is so seductive that it can lead to big mistakes. He thinks that Buffett really has all points covered by writing to maximum losses and being over-capitalized, which most companies aren’t able to do.

GE
Byrne noted that her competitive advantage in researching a large firm like GE GE is valuing what the company can do in tough times as well as 3 to 5 years down the road.  She mentioned the importance of solid cash flows, which allow large companies like this one to move forward and exploit their brand names.

Nike
Byrne mentioned Nike NKE as another firm that has generated enough cash flow to move forward and support its brands. Though WHG LargeCap Value doesn’t have any foreign holdings, Byrne puts a lot of emphasis on how the firms are faring abroad, particularly in Asia and South America. This is another reason that she’s hanging on to Nike.

Page 1 of 1

Re:Berkowitz and Byrne on Bargains
ejmatusiak  06-26-2008, 12:56 PM | Post #2532836
0  
Not sure who or where to ask, but I will start here. I work for the federal  gov't, I invest 15% of my salary and the agency matches 5%. I'm currently $3000 give or take from maxing out. the govt allows up to $15000 a year. What I want to ask is can morningstar rate the govt funds(i am in the L2040 fund). Is it worth maxing out or is it better to drop to the point of 5% and 5% matching and get involved in other funds outside of fed govt choices. It all falls under Thrift Saving Plan. I would like to try and compare funds for example T rowe Price has a 2040 fund with a rating of 4 stars, that seems to be pretty good, I have no idea how the goverment(tsp) rates. Any advice would be great. Thanks 
Re:Re:Berkowitz and Byrne on Bargains
GaSF  06-26-2008, 9:51 PM | Post #2533036
0  
ejmatusiak, I too work for the federal gov't.  I'm not claiming to be an expert, but what I do is put 5% in the L2040 fund and let Uncle Sam match that, then max out my Roth IRA contributions in other mutual funds.  The TSP funds are all just index funds of different areas of the market. The Lifecycle funds just allocate the C, I, S, G and F index funds based on level of risk tolerance, just like any other life cycle fund.  So it's pretty basic.  The nice thing about them are the ridiculously low expense ratios; they're a pretty good deal.  But you're right to consider diversifying outside of the TSP, and more specifically outside of a tax deferred retirment account, by investing that extra 5% in a Roth IRA account.  Hope that helps.
Post removed for violation of Terms of Use (Advertising)  
Top
Page 1 of 1
 
© Copyright 2008 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Please read our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Quotes for NASDAQ are 15 minutes delayed. All other exchanges are delayed 20 minutes.