Hi this is my first post here in my blog, i hope that someone can find usefull information here. I´d like to apologize in advance for any grammar mistake i will make for sure. Im always glad to discuss anything that i write here, positive and negative feedback are always welcome.
I believe that theres no other brazilian companie that can be my first analys other than Petrobras (PBR), its probably the most important brazilian companie (together with Vale do Rio Doce RIO) and its the company that have most weight in my International Portfolio.
I stongly believe that the best of Petrobras is still to come despite of the great returns that this stock have given me in the last years. Nowadays PBR has a reserve of 14 billion barrels, Tupi field has alone a 8/9 billion reserve (confirmed) and predictions to start operations on 2013/2015, the last discover of Carioca field is supposed to have 33 billion barrels (not confirmed). The sum of these fields will put Brazil in front of Nigeria on Oil Reserves putting the country on the Top of Oil Reserves in the world, PBR will pass from a Importer of Oil for one of the Biggest exporters . I think This alone is a good motive for having PBR in your portfolio (always talking about long term investiment), but lets analyse a little bit further :
Positive Points :
1 - Recents Tupi Analyses showed that the Oil in this reserves is the Light One @ 28 API, better commercial quality than the avarage oil produce today by the company.
2 - If you compare Brazil with other important Oil producers Countries you must keep in mind that, we don´t have any natural disaters, we don´t have any civil war or any perspective of this kind of activitie in the long future and Brazil has one of the most stable political scene in Latin America, it means less production volatility perspective.
3 - Even if this Last discover won´t get its size confirmed, petrobras has
a huge size of brazilian shore that havent been studied yet, so you can
expect news of others discovers on the next years.
4 - Brazilian Gorvenement is start to talk about making it more difficult
to overseas companies to explore Brazilian shore, so .... More
protection for Petrobras
Negative Points :
1 - Even if Governament in Brazil says different, PBR still has its managerial decisions influenced by Governaments oppinions, so sometimes some company decisions are for the benefit of the country policies and not for Petrobras shareholders, as an example the difficult that PBR has to increase its Gasoline, Diesel and GLP prices.
2 - Doubts about Natural Gas and Oil derivatives investments ROI
3 - Its yet not clear when exactly the new plataforms of TUPI is gonna be ready to rock ...
4 - The financial viability of projects to reach the deepwaters oil of the last discovers, oil prices must stay at high levels to justify such investment. My personal oppinion is that oil will keep its high prices, but this factor is a variable that the companie has no control. I´d expect that PBR correlation with Oil prices will increase from now on ...
Well, i i have PBR on my portfolio and i expect to stay with this ladie for some time, i will need very strong different news to modify my opinnion.
You can reach me at :
Marcelo Ramos Brandão (marceloiphone@gmail.com)
probably my next analysys is going to be RIO (Vale do Rio doce), i would like to know wich Brazilian Companies do you like to see here, so contact me ....