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Catching Stocks Cast Off By the Lemmings Going Over the Cliff
applejedi1  01-13-2008, 3:55 PM | Post #2476010 |  0 Replies
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This was a pretty good week for value vultures.

The lemmings didn't just do their usual migration from one side of the financial ship to the other: They were running for the exits, making margin calls, and otherwise losing their minds. Good or bad, weak or strong, it didn't matter. If your numbers weren't stellar, companies, even with strong balance sheets, took big, big hits to their share value.

In a veritable smörgåsbord of stupidity, here are some of the week's winners, a few of which may still be on sale next week.  If you want an indication of where lemming stupidity has hit an all-time high, just look to see which companies are gobbling back up their shares in repurchase programs. In the put your money where your mouth is, these are stocks I hold or for which I have orders pending.

Dividend Plays

I still like selected Oil & Gas Trusts, very selective REITs, pipelines and carriers. Dividend plays beat bonds in that they are more liquid, you can get rid of them faster if you want/need to do so, and, as stocks, they are subject to lower fees on the buy and sell. Appreciation is secondary to dividend payouts, which range in the 13% area for this week's picks. Thanks to A. Friend for pointing out a couple of these that they already hold.

PVX - Provident Energy Corp - With a 13.6% dividend paid in monthly increments, PVX  is a mid-value oil & gas trust that has achieved a Zen-like harmony between its oil and natural gas production. Trading around 10.00.

CSE - CapitalSourceYielding 14.6% paid quaterly, CapitalSource makes loans to mid-size businesses in retail and healthcare.  They also bought a lot of bundles of home loans. Some are Fannie/Freddie products, so they are all right. The Morningstar analysts seem content with the security of the dividend even in the face of sore ARMs. Priced at $16.35.

Appreciation Plays

RUTH - Ruth's Chris Steakhouses -  Where can you get a $39.00 steak for just $10.00? On the stock exchange only. Ruth's numbers came in lower than guidance, and the market hammered the hell out of the stock. A $22 fair value stock was going for $6.89. Ruth has stature in its sector of the market, is well run, has ubiquity of experience and scale, from Hong Kong to Layfayette, LA, and will weather the panic about the economy.  One of the few well-run companies that I'll buy for straight appreciation without a dividend consideration.

WU - Western Union -  I'm still acquiring more of this stock. I think that the US immigration issues that have been unsettling it, without cause, as the company is international and moves money in lots of places.  The bad mojo on the street should lessen after the elections in the US in 2008 make forward US immigration policy clearer. I also think that, over time, as other countries' economies and major corporations rise, you will see some lift in the stock as Americans, chasing after wages that may not be available to them in this country, start internationalizing more and sending their money back.

AMGN - Amgen - The Ft. Knox of biotech - R&D and scale advantages make them more big pharma and less boutique bioT - Baby boomers and a world population modestly rising in affluence in pockets makes their products a growth business. Their political clout and ability to do battle with Medicare probably also bode well for the stock.

Dividend & Appreciation Plays

CX - Cemex - The cement giant from Mexico, this company moves very deftly to acquire the right assets and move product to the right places. In a sad state of affairs for the US economy, the Mexican economy may actually be brighter this year. Stock is Morningstar recommended, a dividend yield percent of around 3% and a price hovering in the mid 20's which puts it in 5-star value territory. I would buy a bit and look to buy a bit more if the market dings the construction or financial sectors again. 

KMP - Kinder Morgan Partners -  The oil and natgas pipeline experts. New projects coming on line suggest increase in the payout of the dividend on this Master Limited Partnership. If you bought it back with me a few years ago, your stock has appreciated 194% along with the good dividends. I'm buying more because continued forward growth looks attractive. Richard Kinder takes a buck and makes his money on the appreciation of the stock and the dividends. A 6.1% dividend and trading at current fair market value of around $55.00

CFC - Countrywide Financial - When it was cruising in the under $5.00 range, Bank of America's $2B marker on it was time to be called in. Why not own the biggest mortgage origination unit and massive retail lending infrastructure for a fraction of what you would pay for small midwestern bank? $6B and potential liabilities were apparently still a good enough deal to get you somewhere between $7 and $12.75 when the BAC-CFC deal closes in the third quarter. I've been buying, heavily under $5 with an average cost of about $5.50.  At the negative face which is a stated $7.00, or Morningstar's estimate that the deal will probably mean an effective $12.75 price by the time that it closes, I'm holding BAC effective stock at a nice discount.  If you bought some at $15-16, the combined company still seems well positioned for longer-term rewards. More than that and you have some loss in the deal.

In the sixes it still may offer some value. If Morningstar is right, and $12.75 is a better real number, then you still have significant appreciation in the purchase.
 

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