Ultimate Stock-Picker's Portfolio - All Comments

Re:Welcome!

drewzhu — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 20:29:32 GMT

I'm new to this, so I'm probably missing everything. But what is the portfolio supposed to be? A list of stocks you believe that are undervalued? I'm mostly confused by your entry dates and prices, and that the portfolio shows large percentage of losses for most of the picks. Could you help me understand, as am non-professional investor, what the take away is?

Thanks,

Re:Welcome!

pandan76 — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:40:55 GMT

I am new at this. I am hoping you can give me information about U.S. Energy Development Corporation. I am thinking about investing in their company but like more info. Thanks.

pandan76

Re: Welcome!

debtanchor — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 14:08:11 GMT

I have gotten used to the term unconventional when making business decisions. Speculation is running rampant. FICO scores and equity are meaningless yet the cycle we're in is reminiscent of the mid 80's, 10% unemployment, banks failing, etc.

In the 80's I leveraged everything I had in buying discounted bank debt and kept it all. Now I find the exact window of opportunity has opened up again only it's much larger causing me to leap out of retirement. It is the only area I know where the ROI is in the 30's range.

Our partners, then and now, lost about 1/3 of their investment portfolios and were getting about 2% in CD's money market etc. (you're lucky to get that today). I'd like to know if there are folks out there who have had success in this area.

Link not working

Jackie — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 22:50:13 GMT

I clicked on the Ultimate Stock Picker's Portfolio home page link, and got the following error message.

Server Error in '/USPNet' Application.
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Object reference not set to an instance of an object.
Description: An unhandled exception occurred during the execution of the current web request. Please review the stack trace for more information about the error and where it originated in the code.

Exception Details: System.NullReferenceException: Object reference not set to an instance of an object.

Source Error:

An unhandled exception was generated during the execution of the current web request. Information regarding the origin and location of the exception can be identified using the exception stack trace below.

MCO and MHP

Love it — Thu, 29 May 2008 18:23:41 GMT

I met you at Berk mtg and said about the new page for ultimate stock portfolio and glad the new page is up and running so soon.

I was wondering if you considered about MCO which is in Berkshire and Davis portfolio? I would like your thoughts on those or with managers you interview.

Since credit agencies are businesses that will be required 10 or 20 years from now and are capital non intensive company with wide moat, it is an ideal candidate to research at beaten down prices if one comes to the conclusion that current wounds (credit turmoil and resulting impact) will not be fatal or pemanently damage the franchise. Any thoughts on that?

regards,

sriram

Re:Re:Welcome!

Hari — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 15:43:25 GMT

Annie thoughts on AIG?

Re:Investors

M*_Justin — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 14:36:47 GMT

Thanks for your comments. I primarily look at long-term track record, around 10 to 15 years of out-performance. I'll typically make changes from time to time as I did when I added Dodge & Cox Stock Fund, but I'll also stick with a manager if he's had few years of under-performance.

Re:MCO and MHP

M*_Justin — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 19:23:22 GMT

Sriram,

I haven't looked at MCO or MHP, as while those two managers own it, others that I follow don't. I would say that although the credit agencies business has been historically very good, they have had some issues with their ratings and methodologies in the current credit crisis. In fact, they just announced plans to alter the way they rate some issuers. I'd agree that its not capital intensive business that in good times can generate nice returns, but I think it is an open question as to how the risks presently confronting them will play out this time around.

Hope this helps, and thank you for your comments.

Justin

Re:Re:Re:Welcome!

M*_Justin — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 20:00:48 GMT

Hi Hari,

AIG still looks really cheap. I've made some additional commentary on it, which should be out in this week's article in the next couple of days. Stay tuned, and let me know if you have more questions. Good hearing from you, as always.

Best,

Justin

Re:Welcome!

Hari — Thu, 22 May 2008 14:07:59 GMT

Justin - Great start... I notice that AIG is already in the portfolio; it is also in the watchlist. Do you plan to add some more? Also, Hank Greenberg got a Wells Notice this week. Would this have any impct on AIG stock? Thanks.... Hari

Re:Welcome!

InValueWeTrust — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 02:26:43 GMT

Justin,

I want to commend you on your video conversations with the world's top investors. They are very enjoyable, and it is obvious you have fun making them. You have a very relaxed interview style and it comes off well on the screen. Keep up the great work.

Mark

Investors

mickolas — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 12:04:49 GMT

Justin, I enjoy your work. Just wondering - how do you define great investors? Do you look at long-term track record? absolute results? or how famous the investor is in general? While all of the stockpickers you follow are undoubtedly intelligent, thoughtful investors, based on their results (both short and long-term) some of these guys have not really made money - absolute and relative - for investors in a long time.

--M

Re:Back in the Saddle

georgellie — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:29:45 GMT

I have been riding out the ups & downs of the market. I have also added some money to some of my better large cap growth funds. That being said, I have sold some of my bank stock to take the losses on my tax form. After 30 days, I will be buying them back again. I think banks will have among the largest percent increases when the financial sector finally turns around. I also plan on adding to some of my health care stocks, such as J&J, Abott, Pfiser and Novardis.

Re:Back in the Saddle

DavidVanKnapp — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:30:49 GMT

Justin,

On "growth" stocks, I use a strict sell-stop discipline. That removes emotion from the equation. I set the sell-stop immediately upon buying a stock (usually at 5%-10% below my purchase price), then re-set the stops once per week. If the stock opens up decently, I widen the sell-stop percentage. My "default" percentage is usually 15%. I keep trailing it along behind the actual price (always up, never down).

On dividend stocks, which I keep in a separate portfolio, I use a buy-and-watch strategy. I hold for at least 6 months, then do a portfolio review to see if any changes are warranted. In my dividend portfolio, I'm looking principally at the continuation and raising of each stock's dividend, plus its apparent safety. I'm way less interested in each stock's price than I am in its dividend.

Finally, even though I "know you can't time the market," I do compute what I call a Timing Outlook every two weeks. It has 10 components and is meant to be a short-term predictor (a few weeks). If the Timing Outlook is not favorable, it's rare that I will purchase a stock at all, because I like all my stocks to get off to good starts.

The practical effect of the approaches above are:

(1) I've been mostly in cash for most of the year in growth stocks...therefore way ahead of the market; and

(2) My dividend stocks are running a little better than the market, with the portfolio throwing off about 5.1% at the moment (based on my original investment).

Re:Back in the Saddle

LHixson — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:07:29 GMT

I was looking at Berkshire since it has been down along with the rest of the market this year wondering how it does during recessions. It's performance over the years has averaged 10.8% better than the S&P which we all know is exceptional. If you look at the last 4 recessions for a 3 year period it's performance is even better with a return that exceeds the S&P by around 13%. It would seem to make sense that he would do even better is a tough market because there are more opporitunities. Based on how much it is down from it's 52 week high, this would seem to be a very good entry point.Comments?