Recent track shifts have Gustav consistently hitting near New Orleans, east of the majority of oil and gas rigs; though this could still change in either direction, the models have continued to converge.

Extensive damage and an extended recovery time probably measured in months. The pipelines to shore are probably in a lot of trouble on this trajectory due to scour.

The discussion on the oil drum is always top notch. Please check it out.

On other boards I am reading, many are anticipating a huge jump in oil and gas prices next week. I do not know if that will happen, but I will offer the opinion that if it does not happen, or if it happens and prices quickly reverse lower, they will keep going a lot lower than most energy bulls think.

Short to intermediate term, it is highly likely that the slowing global economy will have far more effect on energy prices than peak oil.

Originally posted at: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/