UK ADR Investing - All Comments

Re:Barclays and RBS

Lili.. — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 02:33:46 GMT

Groundhog:
We are looking at investing in Barclays and/or RBS ADRs. We believe strongly in the past and future performance of both, particularly since RBS has done their Rights Issue and Barclays will either follow suite or do a private placement to shore up its capital reserve. Our fear is that in investing in either, we're also betting on the exchange rate -- dollar to pound. Our sense is that the pound is likely at a peak against the dollar, particularly as interest rates increase here. Any views would be welcome. Groundhog

Have you looked at buying Barclays' or RBS's preferred stocks on the secondary market?

Re:Re:Barclays and RBS

Groundhog — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:35:24 GMT

Thanks. Great idea. I will.

Broader question then is how the pound to dollar exchange is going to move.

Re:Re:Re:Barclays and RBS

Lili.. — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 15:03:30 GMT

Groundhog:

Broader question then is how the pound to dollar exchange is going to move.

Try posting that as a separate question on the Hands On forum.

Re:Barclays and RBS

weiwentg — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:35:29 GMT

Ironically, Barclays would be in a lot worse shape if it had succeeded in acquiring ABN Amro. That said, although their damage was minor relative to some others scathed by the credit crisis (e.g. UBS, BAC, WM), if they need a second round of write downs, it's not going to be pretty for them.

RBS is not in good shape. You could say that had they not succeeded in buying ABN, they'd be in decent shape. However, they have that whole empire building thing going on, and if not ABN, they might have made another hare brained acquisition.

Of the two, I'd buy Barclays. I also agree that the dollar might be at a bottom relative to the pound. However, is the pound going to appreciate by 10% or more? I guess it's hard to say, I have no competency in currency.

Rather than these two, I'd suggest Diageo. No subprime exposure or questionable assets, just hard liquor. Been hit fairly hard nonetheless, and is rated low risk and wide moat. Accelerating growth in emerging markets, and still maintaining market share in the US. Their European operations are blah, though.

Re: Re:Barclays and RBS

jane.huang — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 08:12:00 GMT

weiwentg:

Ironically, Barclays would be in a lot worse shape if it had succeeded in acquiring ABN Amro. That said, although their damage was minor relative to some others scathed by the credit crisis (e.g. UBS, BAC, WM), if they need a second round of write downs, it's not going to be pretty for them.

RBS is not in good shape. You could say that had they not succeeded in buying ABN, they'd be in decent shape. However, they have that whole empire building thing going on, and if not ABN, they might have made another hare brained acquisition.

Of the two, I'd buy Barclays. I also agree that the dollar might be at a bottom relative to the pound. However, is the pound going to appreciate by 10% or more? I guess it's hard to say, I have no competency in currency.

Rather than these two, I'd suggest Diageo. No subprime exposure or questionable assets, just hard liquor. Been hit fairly hard nonetheless, and is rated low risk and wide moat. Accelerating growth in emerging markets, and still maintaining market share in the US. Their European operations are blah, though.

good post