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According to this post at Seeking Alpha, Whitney Tilson is short Hanesbrands (HBI). I mentioned Hanes (which was then my favorite stock) during a "roundtable" discussion on October 20, 2006:
However, there are many situations (and here is
usually where you find some bargains) where the EV/EBIT measure is not
the most useful. When I can predict a high free cash flow margin with
confidence, I use a very long-term discounted cash flows calculation.
For instance, this is what I would do with HanesBrands (HBI), which was recently spun-off from Sara Lee (SLE).
On an EV/EBIT basis, it may not look cheap. But, looking truly
long-term, I'm convinced the intrinsic value of each share is much
closer to the $45 - $65 range than the roughly $23.00 a share at which
it now trades. But, that's a special case – Hanes is a special business.
I wrote a post on Hanes
back on July 23, 2007. That’s also where I mentioned that Hanes had
been the sole idea slated for the October 2006 issue of my newsletter,
but I shut down the newsletter because I felt one idea couldn’t justify
the $75 price tag.
Three days earlier (July 20th, 2007) I had written:
If you're looking for a stock where leverage will
amplify your returns, I still like Hanes Brands (HBI). It's not as
leveraged as Journal Register (though it has plenty of leverage) and
it's a much better business. Hanes was the most interesting spin-off of
last year and the stock did well enough but has since cooled off a bit.
Note that I've yet to find someone who agrees with me on Hanes. I'm not sure if that's a good sign or a bad sign.
I loved Hanes at the spin-off price. I still like it at
today's price. It's probably not ridiculously undervalued as a
business, but the debt will amplify the difference that does exist.
Last October, I wrote that Hanes was probably worth more like $45 - $65
a share than $25 a share. I still think that's true; however, the
spin-off, plant closings, and debt might obscure the business value for
a time. Be patient.
My only post focused solely on Hanes was written on July 20th, 2007
and is basically a collage made from the much longer newsletter piece I
had written for October of 2006.
That issue was never published, so I made a blog post out of the scraps.
Although it’s an old post; you may enjoy reading it.
Regardless, you should definitely read Tilson’s Seeking Alpha post and the accompanying PDF.
They’re both good. Originally posted at: http://www.gannononinvesting.com/
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