Vonfog Contest 2008

Grasshoppers - - - - Again

Carroll70 — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 01:32:52 GMT

2009 Contest Standings
Team	Value	W	L	Pct.
Greg's Grasshoppers	$1,197,630	6	1	85.7%
Don's Dragonflies	$1,047,887	6	1	85.7%
Bill's Butterflies	$956,944	4	3	57.1%
Bob's Bees	$948,740	4	3	57.1%
S&P 500	$917,110	21	28	42.9%
Karl's Killer Krickets	$905,285	3	4	42.9%
Keith's Katydids	$885,006	3	4	42.9%
Heidi's Hornets	$797,860	2	5	28.6%

Once again the Grasshoppers have dominated the Insectarium race arena, seemingly immune to the turmoil affecting the other racers. The Grasshoppers did lose gound this week - down a little less than 1% - but the benchmark S&P 500 was down 4.9%. The other averages were also down: the Dow down 5.2%, the Total Market Index down 4.7% and the Nasdaq 100 down 3.0%. Four other teams beat the S&P 500: the Dragonflies were down 3.0%, the Hornets were down 4.3%, Bob's Bees were down 4.7% and Keith's Katydids slipped below the S&P 500 by a mere 0.01% but still got the "W". Not so fortunate were the Butterflies - down 5.0%, or the Killer Krickets - down 5.5%. It is hopefully significant that the finance-sector-heavy Hornets actually beat both the Total Market and the S&P 500. Better times may be ahead. There were no changes in order in the race.

Everybody Gains, Dragonflies and Grasshoppers More Than Others

Carroll70 — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 01:37:50 GMT

2009 Contest Standings
Team	Value	W	L	Pct.
Greg's Grasshoppers	$1,209,112	5	1	83.3%
Don's Dragonflies	$1,080,000	5	1	83.3%
Bill's Butterflies	$1,007,709	4	2	66.7%
Bob's Bees	$995,945	3	3	50.0%
S&P 500	$963,863	19	23	45.2%
Karl's Killer Krickets	$957,614	3	3	50.0%
Keith's Katydids	$930,052	2	4	33.3%
Heidi's Hornets	$833,894	1	5	16.7%

The Insectarium was buzzing this week as all racers gained. The S&P 500 gained 5.0% but both the Dragonflies and the Grasshoppers doubled that with gains of 10.8% and 10.6%, respectively. Two other teams also beat the S&P 500: Bill's Butterflies gained 7.2% and Karl's Killer Krickets gained 5.7%. The Bees gained 2.6%, the Hornets gained 2.4% and the Katydids gained 1.7%. The other averages also gained: the Dow up 3.5%, the Total Market Index up 5.3% and the Nasdaq 100 up 8.0%. The Grasshoppers have a significant lead and must have one of the best performing portfolios anywhere. There was some movement on the board - Bill and Bob exchanged places and Karl and Keith exchanged places. Three teams are now in the black for the year.

Bob's Sinfully Good Picks for a Bad Economy

Carroll70 — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:47:47 GMT

Bob provides this short justification for his picks:

A balanced portfolio--porn, alcohol, cigarettes and war.

The Obamanomic Theory Behind Karl's Killer Krickets

Carroll70 — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:44:26 GMT

Karl provides this analysis of his portfolio choices for 2009:

Since the economy promises to be moribund in 2009, most economic activity is going to be driven by Uncle Sam, and in particular Obama's $850 billion stimulus package, the $350 billion in TARP funds yet to be doled out, and subsidies targeting activities favored by tax and spend liberals. I'm particularly interested in stocks of firms that are currently down for the count, but likely to benefit from government handouts that will help them avoid bankruptcy and position themselves for recovery in 2010, which should be reflected in share prices well before any recovery takes root. Here goes:

GM, Ford: If the UAW calls in a few chips, Obama and the Dems should help these two U.S. automakers survive a brutal 2009, which would position them to capitalize on any economic rebound in 2010. Stocks are a steal at the moment.

Citigroup: Though the stock is practically worthless, the Feds, particularly Obama's Wall Street-friendly picks, are likely to keep subsidizing this mess. If you carefully apportion my investment in this stock to all of the entities likely to break off over the next 12 months, I expect to come out ahead on this, as shareholders cherry-pick the best businesses and taxpayers get stuck with the trash.

Bank of America: See above.

General Cable: America's largest producer of power transmission cables should benefit from Obama's plans to invest massive sums in the nation's infrastructure.

Trinity Industries: See above. Produces a full array of products for large-scale highway construction projects.

Valmont Industries: Similar to Trinity, but with traffic lights thrown into the mix.

Fluor: Designs and builds enormous infrastructure projects, which should benefit from Obamonomics.

Chicago Bridge & Iron: See above. An engineering concern that designs and builds power plants and wastewater treatment facilities, among other infrastructure-related facilities.

First Solar, Energy Conversion Devices: Leading American producers of solar panels and alternative energy generation parts, respectively. Will benefit from alt energy subsidies.

USS, Nucor, Steel Dynamics: America's premier steelmakers. These stocks, which have been hammered by the economic meltdown, could be revived by massive federally-funded infrastructure projects with "Buy American" clauses.

GE: GE's share price is shockingly low, and the company should be able to capitalize on TARP, infrastructure spending, and alternative energy subsidies.

CAT: Should benefit from infrastructure projects.

Stem Cell Inc. : Should benefit once Dems lift restrictions on stem cell research.

Apollo Group: Retrains the unemployed through bogus on-line universities like the University of Phoenix. Should profit from rising unemployment and any increase in federal subsidies for job retraining.

Tetra Tech: Consultants for tree huggers, who help design eco-friendly projects like wind farms.

FPL Group, which is the largest "clean energy" producer in the United States.

Let the games begin!

Week Ending January 24, 2009

Carroll70 — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:37:39 GMT

2009 Contest Standings
Team	Value	W	L	Pct.
Greg's Grasshoppers	$1,073,288	3	1	75.0%
Bob's Bees	$978,551	3	1	75.0%
Don's Dragonflies	$974,604	3	1	75.0%
Bill's Butterflies	$952,316	3	1	75.0%
S&P 500	$942,597	12	16	42.9%
Karl's Killer Krickets	$919,111	2	2	50.0%
Keith's Katydids	$914,724	1	3	25.0%
Heidi's Hornets	$820,335	1	3	25.0%

Bill's Butterflies brought cheers from the crowd at the Insectarium this week as they gained 0.3% while the market, for the third week in a row, went down. The S&P 500 went down 2.3%. None of the other teams beat the S&P 500. The Dragonflies were down 2.5%, the Bees were down 2.6%, the Grasshoppers were down 3.4%, Karl's Killer Krickets were down 3.5%, the Katydid's were down 4.8% and the Hornets were down 7.5%. The other indexes were also down: Nasdaq 100 down 1.8%, Total Market Index down 2.4% and the Dow was down 2.6%. Even Mr. Buffett had a bad week - down 5.8%. At this stage of the contest, teams are still jockeying for position. The Butterflies moved up two positions, the Krickets and Katydids moved down two positions and switched places. The S&P 500 moved up two places. We still have four teams doing better than the S&P 500 and our leader is still in the black - truly remarkable in this treacherous market.

Q&A for Carroll70's Bob's Bees portfolio

Carroll70 — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:32:55 GMT

Ask questions related to the "Bob's Bees" Portfolio here.

Q&A for Carroll70's Karl's Krickets portfolio

Carroll70 — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:31:38 GMT

Ask questions related to the "Karl's Krickets" Portfolio here.

Hornets Join the Fray

Carroll70 — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:03:31 GMT

Heidi's comments on her 2009 portfolio:

"...clearly a sector play (with the exception of DIS)."

Q&A for Carroll70's Heidi's Hornets portfolio

Carroll70 — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:01:04 GMT

Ask questions related to the "Heidi's Hornets" Portfolio here.

Q&A for Carroll70's Greg's Grasshooppers portfolio

Carroll70 — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 18:27:12 GMT

Ask questions related to the "Greg's Grasshooppers" Portfolio here.

Butterflies Land

Carroll70 — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:16:55 GMT

Bill provided the following comments on his portfolio choices for 2009:

"My picks are based on PEG ratios as a guiding principle but influenced by my instinctive sense of value developed over many years of successful investing. The list contains no brainers like ebay and DNA to a few high upside/high risk ones like BAC."

Q&A for Carroll70's Bill's Butterflies portfolio

Carroll70 — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:11:16 GMT

Ask questions related to the "Bill's Butterflies" Portfolio here.

Dragonflies Arrive

Carroll70 — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:33:39 GMT

Don provided this rationale behind his picks for 2009:

I believe the market stands at a singularity today. It will get much worse as the dollar is destroyed or it will get much better as normal market forces regain control of the global economy. My typical, balanced choices would have little chance to win under either scenario so I am adopting a strategy of highly focused selection this year. This is the strategy Bob executed so well when he selected 100% Oil companies in 2005. I am opting to bet on the brighter of the two pathways away from the singularity and further believe that the ability of technology to reduce frictional costs of business will put those companies who supply technology in an advantageous position over the next twelve months. Hence, I am putting my entire portfolio in a set of technology companies. These companies were chosen on the basis of Owner's Cash Return (OCR) and all choices have OCR's above 10% and more than half have OCR's above 15%. [OCR is simply free cash flow divided by enterprise value. Don believes that 5% represents a "normal" OCR.] With few exceptions, chosen companies have little or no debt which gives them the freedom to move aggressively as normal market forces regain control. Two of the companies, AAPL and EBAY, are "pop stars" - all the rest are related to more industrial scale technology.

Q&A for Carroll70's Don's Dragonflies portfolio

Carroll70 — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:29:59 GMT

Ask questions related to the "Don's Dragonflies" Portfolio here.

Katydid's Join the Contest

Carroll70 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:03:20 GMT

Keith is the first to join the 2009 fielding a team named the Katydids. Looks like nine solid choices and Pep Boys.

You are welcome to comment on his choices via this blog.