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It shocks me that this "plan" is touted in the media, as if it makes any sense at all. Let's run it down together. The
banks are being asked by the insurance regulators (and basically
everyone else) to re-capitalize the monolines. You see, it is in their
interest to do so, as a downgrade of the monolines will result in very
large losses on bank investments. So its "cheaper" to re-capitalize
the insurers of those investments, than take the downgrade on the
investments. So the banks are going to provide capital to the monolines, so they can insure their investments, and keep them at AAA.
This is absurd on the face of it! If you are providing capital to a guarantor, how much value can that guarantor provide you?
Say
I decide I have a homeowners policy, and I find out the insurance
company is in trouble. They tell me I will not be able to file a claim
on my newly damaged house, unless I give them money to pay the claim!
So if all of us suckers will simply give them one dollar, they will
make it into hundreds to pay us all! Absurd. But
let's just say this goes through, which looks dubious. I have a modest
proposal, for how the insurance companies can pay for this new
capital. They can insure the debt of the banks, and bring it up to
AAA! If anyone does not believe it will hold, the banks can send over
another check, and AAA is restored. That is only one step further in absurdity. The monolines are a fraud, and this "plan" is an act of financial desperation. The market will not be fooled. Don't you be fooled either.
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