The best free source of CDS information I know of is www.markit.com. I would specifically recommend going to this link,
as it gives a fairly good overview of spreads across industry areas.
The best data is on Bloomberg (go to CDSD), but I know this is not easy
to obtain for many.
Here is a Bloomberg article,
which discusses the disconnect perceived between the CDS market and
stock prices. They take a reasonably balanced approach, noting that
there is a play here, whether you think the equities market or the debt
markets are wrong. Just pick one to go long, and short the other.
Logical.
Earlier last week, the Financial Times put up a
couple of articles on the subject of the "divergence". Unfortunately,
I am having a devil of a time finding them online at this time.
Norbert,
the key here is that spreads are exploding upward on practically all
industries during the previous couple of weeks. I do believe this is
partly a re-dress of spreads that were previously too low, but the
recent rate of increase is the key thing I am focusing on. Yes, the
equity markets have not been all that bullish, but have really not
changed all that much, with implied volatility going down. So I am
holding with the proposition that the CDS market spread fluctuation can
be a leading indicator of problems in financial well-being of the
companies.
One of the reasons I tend to trust the CDS market as
a reasonably reliable indicator is the fact that insider trading is
apparently rampant in this arena. Why? Because banks often have the
benefit of insider information from their loan book, but can also trade
on this CDS market. The SEC has no idea how to police this, has
suggested a few common-sense controls to build a "chinese wall" between
lending and trading, and then has wondered aloud if it even matters if
such trading occurs. As usual, the SEC is at best useless, and at
worst corrupt. So here we are.
I would also like to point
out that spread increases are more than an empty indicator. As they go
up, it has a knock-on effect on cost of borrowing. That goes straight
to the bottom line, and can only hurt the real economy. Here is an article on this subject.