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Credit Default Swaps versus The Stock Market Information
Alex...  02-24-2008, 8:18 PM | Post #2491270 |  0 Replies
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Here is a post I made over the weekend.  I hope you find it informative.  I have put up more details on the topic Market Insights.  I hope you find it informative.

Re: Credit Default Swap Market or Stocks: Which is Right? Alex...
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The best free source of CDS information I know of is www.markit.com.  I would specifically recommend going to this link, as it gives a fairly good overview of spreads across industry areas.  The best data is on Bloomberg (go to CDSD), but I know this is not easy to obtain for many. 

Here is a Bloomberg article, which discusses the disconnect perceived between the CDS market and stock prices.  They take a reasonably balanced approach, noting that there is a play here, whether you think the equities market or the debt markets are wrong.  Just pick one to go long, and short the other.  Logical. 

Earlier last week, the Financial Times put up a couple of articles on the subject of the "divergence".  Unfortunately, I am having a devil of a time finding them online at this time. 

Norbert, the key here is that spreads are exploding upward on practically all industries during the previous couple of weeks.  I do believe this is partly a re-dress of spreads that were previously too low, but the recent rate of increase is the key thing I am focusing on.  Yes, the equity markets have not been all that bullish, but have really not changed all that much, with implied volatility going down.  So I am holding with the proposition that the CDS market spread fluctuation can be a leading indicator of problems in financial well-being of the companies.  

One of the reasons I tend to trust the CDS market as a reasonably reliable indicator is the fact that insider trading is apparently rampant in this arena.  Why?  Because banks often have the benefit of insider information from their loan book, but can also trade on this CDS market.  The SEC has no idea how to police this, has suggested a few common-sense controls to build a "chinese wall" between lending and trading, and then has wondered aloud if it even matters if such trading occurs.  As usual, the SEC is at best useless, and at worst corrupt.  So here we are.   

I would also like to point out that spread increases are more than an empty indicator.  As they go up, it has a knock-on effect on cost of borrowing.  That goes straight to the bottom line, and can only hurt the real economy.  Here is an article on this subject. 




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