Hello!  I decided my first post should start out with the macro money trend de jour, the heart of the credit crunch. 

The following link is to a blog, which does a very good job of summarizing the current situation in the commercial paper market.  The roll over situation is actually a bit worse than they state, as a lot of paper is being forced into over night duration.   

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/commercial-paper.html

Also, McCulley of Pimco wrote a very good piece on how this liquidity situation is cutting the wind of the "shadow banks".  His bottom line:  The Fed needs to cut, as a run on Wall Street will in fact hurt Main Street.  His supporting facts are in the letter. 

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2007/GCBF+August-+September+2007.htm 

In all of this we find the heart of the "Fed put".  While some hold to the idealistic notion that Wall Street is some world removed from Main Street, it is unfortunately not so easy to make the distinction.  So Bernanke may desire to be more detatched than his predecessor, but it may be very hard to accomplish in fact.  

My prediction remains a quarter point reduction in Fed Funds rate for the next two to three meetings.